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WEATHER INFLUENCES 






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Weather Influences 

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF THE MENTAL 

AND PHYSIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF 

DEFINITE METEOROLOGICAL 

CONDITIONS 



BY 



EDWIN GRANT DEXTER, Ph.D. 

PROFESSOR OF EDUCATION AT THE 
UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS 



WITH INTRODUCTION BY 

CLEVELAND ABBE. LL. D„ 



" a breath thou art, 

Servile to all the skyey influences 

That do this habitation where thou keep'st. 

Hourly afflict : ' ' 

Measure for Measure. Act III. sc. l. 8-11. 



j|3eto gotfc 

THE MACMILLAN COMPANY 

LONDON: MACMILLAN & CO., Ltd. 
1904 

All rights reserved 



4 



y 



UeftAKY of CONGRESS 
Two Oatte Received 

AUG 9 1904 
Oepyrieht Entry 

CLASS d XXe. No. 

1 copy a 



Copyright, 1904 
By THE MACMILLAN COMPANY 



Set up and electrotyped May, 1904 



The Mason Press 
syracuse, new york 



^a tfie Qfttxnotv 



OF MY FATHER, WHOSE SUSCEPTIBILITY TO WEATHER INFLUENCES 

FIRST IMPRESSED ME WITH THEIR POTENCY, 

THIS VOLUME IS AFFECTIONATELY DEDICATED 



AUTHOR'S PREFACE 

If the present volume possesses no other virtue, it has 
that of being an essay into an hitherto untouched field of 
scientific research. As such it must be judged. Not as 
a final word, but as a suggestion for future investigation. 
And the field which it enters is not without interest to the 
popular mind, nor possibilities to the investigator. The 
basis of widespread popular opinion along any line is a 
fertile field for scientific research', and none more fertile 
than that of belief in weather influence. 

Five of the chapters of the volume have, in substance, 
previously appeared in print. Chapters V., VI., and 
VII. in Monograph Supplement No. 10 to the Psycho- 
logical Review ; Chapter XI. in Popular Science Monthly 
and Chapter XII. in the Publications of the American 
Academy of Political and Social Science. The rest of 
the material is entirely new. 

In its preparation, I have been placed under obliga- 
tions to many persons in various parts of the country, 
and wish here to express my appreciation of their courtesy 
and kindness. To teachers, wardens of penitentiaries, 
and superintendents of asylums for the insane in almost 
every state of the union; to Superintendent Aaron 
Gove of the Denver Public Schools ; Superintendent F. 
H. Brandenburgh, of the Denver Station of the United 
States Weather Bureau, and Chief Howe of the Denver 



PREFACE 

Detective Service, for material aid in making the studies 
of the Colorado climate. For help in the prosecution of 
the study in New York City, I am indebted to Superin- 
tendent Jasper, of the Borough of Manhattan Public 
Schools, the Principals of Public Schools Nos. 10 and 
93, the Superintendents of the various Corrective Insti- 
tutions for the City of New York, officials at the Central 
Police Station and Department of Public Health, offi- 
cials in various national banks, Assistant Superintendent 
Charles B. Grimshaw of the Roosevelt Hospital, and to 
E. H. Emery, District Forecaster of the United States 
Weather Bureau. 

To my colleague, Professor E. C. Baldwin, of the 
Department of English in the University of Illinois, I 
am also under especial obligations for invaluable assist- 
ance in the revision of manuscript. 

Edwin Grant Dexter. 

The University or Illinois, April 24, 1904. 



TABLE OF CONTENTS 



CHAPTER PAGE 

I. Sources and Nature of Weather Proverbs, . . 1 

II. The Weather Lore of the "Skyey Influences," . 10 

III. Animal Weather Lore, 27 

IV. Weather Influences in Literature, ... 39 
V. .The Empirical Problem, ..... 55 

VI. The Meteorological Conditions, ... 74 

VII. The Child and the Weather, . . ' . .91 

VIII. Crime and the Weather, . . . . .141 

IX. Insanity and the Weather, . . . .166 

X. Health and the Weather, . . . .177 

XL Suicide and the Weather, . . . .198 

XII. Drunkenness and the Weather, . . ,219 

XIII. Attention and the Weather, . . . . 233 

XIV. A Summary of Weather Effects, . . ,247 
XV. Conclusions, ....... 266 



INTRODUCTION 

The work on Weather Influences that Professor 
Dexter now offers to the attention of the public relates 
to a theme that has been discussed pro and con by many 
philosophers. The definitive conclusions attained by 
him in regard to the influence of certain specific weather 
conditions upon men are but the beginning of a long 
series of special researches that will afford a scientific 
foundation for the general belief in the influence of 
climate upon the characteristics of tribes and nations. 
Except in a very few cases no one has as yet succeeded 
in distinguishing between the immediate or direct influ- 
ences of weather and climate on man and the indirect 
influences. Experiments that last but a few hours tell 
us a little about the immediate temporary influence of 
great and sudden changes of pressure, temperature, or 
moisture, but we have as yet only very hazy ideas of the 
ultimate influences of permanent changes. In fact, a 
comprehensive view of the possibilities of evolution and 
natural selection teaches that we must study man, as we 
do the animals and plants, in reference to every item of 
his environment. Weather and climate may affect him 
directly, but they also affect the water he drinks and the 
food that he eats ; they dictate his clothing and dwelling 
and all his surroundings, so that climate can scarcely be 
considered by itself, and we are apt to enlarge the mean- 



x ii WEATHER INFLUENCES 

ing of the word so as to include everything, whereas it 
should be restricted to the meteorological elements only 
if we are to treat the subject with any precision. 

In 1860, 1866, and 1867, Mr. J. Disturnell, in various 
works on the influence of climate, says : 

"The habits and character of the people inhabiting the differ- 
ent sections of our country are more or less influenced by climate. 
Thus, the inhabitants of the New England states, with a temper- 
ate, cool climate, are found to be generally intelligent, industrious, 
humane, and frugal .... the same may be said of all the 
^northern and northwestern states where an agicultural community 
predominates .... the middle belt, having a mean annual tem- 
perature of from 47° to 50°F., is crowded with inhabitants and 
full of enterprise, where the arts, commerce, institutions of learn- 
ing and agricultural pursuits are alike encouraged .... the 
inhabitants of the border or central states, including Maryland, 
Kentucky, etc., are of a mixed character in regard to many of the 
habits and traits enumerated above .... the white population 
of the southern states are more united and fixed in their character. 
Climate and the institution of slavery combined have tended to 
render them haughty, domineering, and impatient of restraint. 
.... The inhabitants of the Pacific states and territories are of 
a varied and mixed character .... a fine climate, fruitful soil 
and mountain ranges engender noble temperaments in the breast 
of man." 

The above quotation illustrates the general character 
of nearly all the literature that I have been able to find 
bearing on the influence of climate on the characteristics 
of men. It would seem that in general authors attrib- 
uted to the meteorological climate, properly so-called, 
influences that are probably due to entirely different 
matters. For instance, the intelligence, industry, fru- 
gality, and humanity of the New England people, the 



INTRODUCTION xiii 

enterprise of New York and Pennsylvania, the haughty 
bearing of the southern people, are all of them charac- 
teristics that marked the ancestors of these same people 
when they were living under the same climate in their 
European homes three hundred years ago, and when 
they migrated from Asia thousands of years earlier still. 
It simply happened that political and social conditions 
in England and Holland led to the settlement of three 
different American colonies by three different classes of 
the emigrants, and we have no evidence whatever that 
the slight differences between the climates of Massachu- 
setts, New York, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee 
have had any appreciable influence in either forming or 
fixing these traits of character. 

A very remarkable work on the relation of climate to 
mankind is the famous "Esprit de Lois," published in 
1748. This work had occupied its author, Baron de 
Montesquieu, for about twenty years, and his previous 
publications were but detached chapters or preliminary 
steps to this, in which he explains history as the result of 
the laws and customs that govern the nations, and these 
latter are but the hidden instincts of human nature, as 
influenced by geographical position, plants, and animals, 
and, above all, the atmosphere or climate that surrounded 
each tribe in its native habitat. A few selections and 
references to this work, which has been translated into 
every language, must impress the reader with the bold- 
ness of the conclusions expressed by its author. A gen- 
eral principle was laid down by D'Alembert in his 
analysis of the work of Montesquieu in the following 
paragraph: 



x i v WEATHER INFLUENCES 

"Nobody doubts but that the climate has an influence upon 
the habitual disposition of men's bodies and characters; on this 
account, laws ought to be framed to accord with the nature of the 
climate. Thus, in countries where the use of wine is hurtful, the 
law that forbids it is a very good one ; in countries where the heat 
of the climate inclines people to laziness, the law which encourages 
labor is a very proper one. Therefore the Government can correct 

the effects of climate As climate has so much influence on 

domestic and civil slavery, it has no less on political slavery. The 
people in the north are stronger and more courageous than those 
of the south. In general, then, the latter must be conquered ; the 
former must be the conquerors." 

Montesquieu enunciates a generalization to the effect 
that the inhabitants of cold countries have but little taste 
for delicate pleasures ; in temperate countries they have 
more; in warm countries their sensibility is exquisite. 
He draws a contrast in this respect between the cold 
phlegmatic Englishman and the lively Italian. If we 
extend this comparison and include under one average 
all the people living north of the annual isotherm of 50° 
F. in the northern hemisphere, and those south of this 
same isotherm in the southern hemisphere, we shall at 
once perceive that we have included races that enjoy 
such great varieties of climate and that possess such 
varied temperaments that we are taking heterogeneous 
averages that can have but little meaning. If Montes- 
quieu's idea was correct in this respect, then the phleg- 
matic temperament of the colder countries should be 
especially in evidence during long nights of the colder 
or winter season, and might be partly or entirely reversed 
during long days of the hot summer season as in the 
United States and Canada. 



INTRODUCTION xv 

We must not speak of cold as measured by the dry- 
bulb thermometer, but rather of the relative sensation of 
cold experienced by two persons, one of them in a dry 
sunshine, the other in a cloudy, moist atmosphere; one 
enjoying a balmy southern breeze, the other a raw north- 
east wind ; one well dressed and housed, the other poorly 
clad and nourished. We quite agree with Montesquieu 
that if the climate enforces indolence of body the inevit- 
able result must be indolence of mind, and an eventual 
want of capacity for any sort of exertion, muscular or 
intellectual. There should result conservatism and 
degeneracy. Men are at best conservative beings ; only 
the young enjoy revolutionary changes of any kind; 
maturer persons always desire peace, comfort, and a 
fair division of work and pleasure. The restless, ambi- 
tious men and women are in the minority even among 
enterprising nations. They are said to be especially 
numerous in the New England states, but this, we think, 
is principally a result of the fact that our ancestors were 
restless migrants, and is only partly the result of the 
severe climate of that region which killed off a large 
proportion of the early settlers and forces the remainder 
to live strenuous lives as the essential condition of exist- 
ence. Agriculture is the principal labor of man, but 
where his labors are poorly rewarded he, and especially 
his children, inevitably seek for more favored regions. 
The mental and physical activities that are absolutely 
necessary in such climates as that of Great Britain, 
Canada, and the United States are not likely to develop 
a class of drones and are not consistent therewith. 

Therefore the monastic life has never been greatly 



xv i WEATHER INFLUENCES 

favored in these or other northern countries. If ever 
monasteries have seemed to temporarily prosper, yet 
eventually the national spirit of work has remonstrated 
effectively against indolent religious orders. Nothing 
is more characteristic of the spirit of industry that reigns 
throughout China and Japan than the annual ceremony 
of opening the ground with the spade performed by the 
emperors in commemoration of the beginning of the 
agricultural season, and as indicative of the honor of 
agricultural labor. The climate of eastern Asia, like 
that of eastern America, stimulates work and makes it 
honorable. The laws of certain nations forbidding the 
use of alcoholic liquors, enforcing cleanliness, rest, 
abstinence from meat, the isolation of lepers and other 
diseased persons, etc., accord with the necessities im- 
posed upon them by their climates and were undoubtedly 
the result of ages of experience and trial, but other 
nations in similar circumstances have no such laws ! 

Many investigators have studied the relation of cli- 
mate to special diseases, as though that were the most 
important phase of our sub j ect. The relation of climate 
to health is, however, far more important, as also more 
difficult. The progress of knowledge during the past 
generation has shown that many of the diseases formerly 
called malarial and supposed to be produced by climate 
directly are in fact produced by germs, animal and veg- 
etable parasites that are fostered by certain climatic 
conditions. The diseases are not to be attributed to the 
meteorological elements or climate directly, since under 
those same climatic conditions man thrives when he has 
once learned how to conquer the respective organic 



INTRODUCTION xv ii 

sources of disease. Until recent discoveries established 
the nature of the infection, it had been supposed that 
nations and individuals could, by a long process of 
acclimatization, become inured to such diseases and in 
fact immune. This process of acclimatization, by- 
reason of which those individuals died out who were 
intrinsically unable to withstand the attacks of disease, 
having gone on for many generations, was generally 
supposed to have resulted in the evolution of typical 
races having special characteristics apparently consist- 
ent with such immunity. But in the light of our present 
knowledge, these racial characteristics should not be 
attributed to the climate properly so-called, but to a 
combination of other influences that has served to render 
the individuals immune to the respective diseases. 

In 1854, Dr. Aubert-Roche, Chief of the French 
Medical Service in Egypt, published in Paris an essay 
on the acclimatization of Europeans in warm countries 
meaning thereby especially the southern coasts of the 
Mediterranean, Egypt, Abyssinia, and Arabia. The 
Red Sea offers the hottest and most oppressive climate 
of the globe, and yet it is found that Arabs, Turks and 
Copts enjoy this climate, and even the Italian, French, 
and English soldiers endure it. The Arab horses are 
among the finest of breeds, and are sent away to all 
climates. It is a question of acclimatization, some one 
says, but what is acclimatization? To this Dr. Aubert- 
Roche, in view of his long experience, replies : 

"It is the bringing of the human organization into harmony 
with the climate and local influences, in order that man may live, 
feel well, and en j oy the complete exercise of all his faculties. Now 

1-a 



X yiii WEATHER INFLUENCES 

it is common to say that climates, like localities, modify the human 
organism because in one place one style of life is necessary, and in 
another place another style. But to say that these differences are 
subject to certain laws and that there is a law of acclimatization, a 
law of harmony, between human organization and its surround- 
ings is to provoke a research into this subject. If then we add 
that man, being acclimated, must be in full possession of all his 
faculties, this will provoke a farther study into the influence of 
climate on cerebration. The question of acclimatization, thus 
considered, necessitates a physiological examination to the action 
of all the agents that surround us. But this leads us too far, and 
we can at present acquire only an elementary knowledge, such as 
is given in works of chemistry, physics, physiology, and medicine. 
The fundamental question is one of temperament. My observa- 
tions have confirmed the truth of the principle established by 
Royer-Collard in the memoir published in 1843 to the effect that 
there are really only two temperaments resulting from the pre- 
dominance of one or the other of the two great organic systems, 
the blood and the nerves, which produce and maintain life: that 
is to say the sanguine and the nervous temperament. We can 
easily concede that in many countries the primitive races have 
been mixed with numerous other races, and that instruction, 
education, food, climate, and civilization have modified the organ- 
ism. Thus, a general custom or style of clothing may predomi- 
nate in a given tribe and alter its temperament. It is well recog- 
nized that the sanguine temperament predominates in temperate 
countries, but with certain modifications that vary as we advance 
north or south. Thus, there is a positive difference between the 
French of the north, the English, Dutch, and Germans, on the 
one hand, and the French of the south, the Spaniards and the 
Italians on the other. This difference is due to climate and food, 
for we can scarcely properly invoke the influence of primitive 
races, because the Roman and barbarian invasions have mixed all 
up together. 

"The so-called lymphatic, the muscular, and the bilious or 
melancholic temperaments are to be considered as modifications 



INTRODUCTION xix 

of the nervous temperament, and all depend upon the influence on 
the system of the biliary secretion which is excited and modified 
by food, climate and civilization. The bilious temperament is 
said to belong to warm countries, but this is not true of the inhab- 
itants of those countries, but rather of the strangers who visit 
them and have not yet become acclimated." 

Modern students of the influence of the weather on 
human beings have devised the term temperature or 
"sensible temperature," originally "temperament," to 
indicate the sensation produced by atmospheric condi- 
tions in general. Thus we speak of pleasant, exhilarat- 
ing, bracing weather; depressing, gloomy, and muggy 
weather. Now, these sensations may be produced 
either by changing the temperature, the moisture, the 
pressure, the sunshine, or even the food or clothing. The 
first effect of special weather conditions is to excite 
special emotions in the nervous system, and most of us 
are not sufficiently observant to be able to distinguish, or 
have not a sufficient command of language to be able to 
express, the sensations experienced with each change of 
atmospheric conditions. To obviate this trouble, em- 
pirical scale numbers, from to 10, have been devised, 
first by J. E. Osborne in 1878, and later by Tyler ( 1901) , 
by the general use of which one should be able to ascer- 
tain the relative frequency of different kinds of weather 
influences in all parts of the world. We may thus lay 
the foundation for at least a partial record and eventual 
explanation of the peculiar traits of each nation. Per- 
haps the simplest and best way of recording the influ- 
ence of the weather is that proposed by the present 
writer in the Monthly Weather Review for 1899, namely, 



XX WEATHER INFLUENCES 

to prepare a diagram whose vertical ordinate represents 
temperature, and horizontal ordinate relative humidity. 
On this diagram enter figures representing the velocity 
of the wind on the Beaufort or other convenient scale. 
We place these figures at the proper temperature and 
relative humidity to indicate that the condition produced 
by these three factors is one of perfect comfort, or one 
most conducive to physical or intellectual work. After 
a few months or a year, we shall have located so many 
points on the diagram that we are able to connect them 
together by curves that may be called curves of perfect 
comfort. Several curves may be drawn for several wind 
velocities, and will show us that the curve for a given 
wind velocity passes through a different series of tem- 
peratures and humidities from that for another wind 
velocity. An equivalent idea has been suggested inde- 
pendently by Mr. Tyler, who prefers to draw curves of 
the greatest discomfort. Undoubtedly these latter 
curves should also be drawn in order to complete the 
study of the subject. 

Every one must recognize the general fact that certain 
atmospheric conditions, such as the dryness of the air, 
stimulates, while other conditions, such as moist air, relax 
the human system. As with man, so also with other 
animals and plants. Each family, and species, each 
type of animal or plant has its optimum pressure, tem- 
perature, and moisture, and any considerable departure 
from this means a corresponding amount of change in 
the direction of the degeneracy in the individuals. But 
by a long process of adaptation, families and races may 
become accustomed to the new condition, and achieve a 



INTRODUCTION Xxi 

general change in the so-called optimum climatic condi- 
tions. 

We are all familiar with this process of acclimatiza- 
tion, as shown in the history of the evolution of the 
cultivated food plants and domestic animals that have 
been transported step by step over the greater part of 
the globe. The seed that is perfectly at home in a given 
soil and climate suffers greatly at first when sown in a 
distant region, but after a few generations "it becomes 
acclimated," and in some cases does better in the new 
situation than in the former one. Just so it is with the 
human family. The tribes that migrate from one coun- 
try to another after having triumphed over the novel 
vicissitudes of the new climate, may in a few generations 
develop a higher order of manhood than in the former 
locality, or on the other hand may degenerate perma- 
nently. In general it is said that those races that 
migrate from warmer to colder climates are improved 
thereby, but perhaps it is not wholly correct to maintain 
that this improvement is due to the direct action of the 
cold air on the fibres and muscles. We can easily see 
that for some men and animals the direct action of the 
cold chilling the surface of the skin, is to stimulate 
muscular activity, such as running and walking and 
working, because this stimulates the circulation of the 
blood and thereby a greater chemical activity within the 
body, thus evolving internal heat to counteract the ex- 
ternal cold. But in some animals the greater cold pro- 
duces the direct opposite effect; they curl up within 
warm coverings and hibernate. Man, on the other hand, 
having no natural protection, is not only forced to take 



xxii WEATHER INFLUENCES 

active exercise, as just mentioned, but has been stimu- 
lated to invent clothing, dwellings, fire, and cooked food. 
Therefore a gradual transfer from a warm, moist, de- 
pressing climate to a cool, dry location, or, what is the 
same thing, a gradual secular change of the climate in 
any locality in this same direction has had the effect of 
increasing both the bodily and the mental vigor of the 
race. But of course the process may go too far. If 
the climate becomes so severe that appropriate animal 
and vegetable foods or even liquid fresh water itself and 
fuel can not be found, or if sunshine is too greatly dimin- 
ished, the individuals that are least able to resist adverse 
conditions die away to such an extent that the tribe is 
reduced in numbers, and those who hold out are reduced 
in strength and intellect, stunted or dwarfed, as it were, in 
the struggle for existence against such severe obstacles. 

When speaking of climatic influences we must not 
forget that clothing, food, national customs, or other 
features of our environment, may very largely counter- 
act the climatic influence proper. 

The migrations of the various races of men, the pro- 
cesses of acclimatization, the evolution of races and 
racial characteristics have been going on for a much 
longer period than is ordinarily supposed. The devel- 
opment of the present characteristic races of the globe 
has required not the 5000 years of Ussher's chronology, 
nor yet the 50,000 years by which we may estimate the 
antiquity of many archaeological remains, but rather 
500,000, or some such great period as that which has 
elapsed since the beginning of what geologists know as 
the Quaternary epoch, when Pleistocene man evolved 



INTRODUCTION xxiii 

from his Pliocene ancestors. Of course, therefore, it is 
not a matter of direct observation and record, but rather 
of speculative philosophy, of faith in the continued 
steady working through untold ages, of the laws that we 
know are in operation at the present time. 

Prof. A. H. Keane, at page 98 of Mills International 
Geography, New York, 1901, has stated the rational 
and logical conclusion thus tersely as follows: 

"From this view of the first dispersion, it follows that these 
Pleistocene migrations everywhere preceded the later physical and 
mental development of mankind, so that the evolution of the exist- 
ing human varieties and of their several cultures is presented in 
quite a new light. We need no longer suppose, always a some- 
what violent assumption, that some fully specialized group, say, 
originally black, migrating from continent to continent, became 
white in one region, yellow in another, brown in a third, and so on. 
Had such a specialized group passed from its proper zone to 
another, it would probably have died out long before it had time 

to become acclimatized The Pleistocene groups, all alike 

at first, everywhere presented the same generalized prototype, from 
which the now living varieties were severally and independently 
developed. The main divisions of mankind must therefore be 
regarded, as Linnaeus regarded them, as so many zoological varie- 
ties, all springing from common or closely allied generalized ances- 
tors, and each gradually specialized by slow adaptation to its 
special environment. Like all other divisions of the terrestrial 
fauna, these divisions are thus the outcome of their respective 
surroundings. They are what climate, soil, diet, heredity, and 
time have made them, and that is the reason why, in the case of all 
later migrations, the first question that arises is one of acclimati- 
zation. If the new zone is favorable, that is, differs but little 
from the old, the variety persists; if not, it either merges and 
becomes absorbed in the indigenous element, or else simply dies 
out." 



xxiv WEATHER INFLUENCES 

Everything seems to combine to prove that the exist- 
ing order of events both material and intellectual has 
been brought about by a slow process of change, due to 
the interaction of the atoms and masses that constitute 
the material world around us. Sunshine and frost year 
by year slowly disintegrate or weather away the surface 
of the rocks, reducing them first to the talus at the foot 
of the cliff and then to the soil that spreads over the plain. 
Gradually the soil is carried to the bottom of the sea, but 
eventually raised far above sea level, so that we observe 
it as stratified rocks upon which the sunshine and the frost 
are again acting. By an unknown number of repeti- 
tions of this process, our continents and oceans, as we 
know them, have been formed and reformed, while man, 
with his attendant plants and animals, has been living 
upon them, rising and falling with them. Diffused 
over the whole globe even in those prehistoric days, he 
yet accommodated his life to every condition, and became 
the one lord of the whole earth. When the floors of the 
Atlantic and Pacific were above ocean level they may 
have been inhabited by man, while the eastern and west- 
ern continents were below sea level. When the latter 
rose, man migrated to them while his former home sank 
beneath the ocean. These geological and orographic 
changes, combined with the corresponding changes in 
animal and plant life, the changes in climate and the 
frequent migrations of human tribes, afford an infinite 
variety of circumstances, to influence the development 
of a great variety of races and tribes, and are quite suffi- 
cient to explain all the variations that have been recorded. 

In general the history of a race, from its birthplace 



INTRODUCTION XXV 

and small beginning to its migration into a new country, 
the conquering of the tribes that it finds there, the estab- 
lishment of a new empire, the culmination of its power, 
and its final decay and disappearance, occupies the space 
of two, three, four, or five thousand years ; at least this is 
a fair average for the races of whose history we know 
something in Egypt, Assyria, Persia, Palestine, China, 
India, Tartary, and Germany. If the same average 
holds good for the tribes of Africa, Oceanica, North and 
South America, and for prehistoric races, then we must 
imagine the whole globe repeopled many times by differ- 
ent families of men, each tribe working out its own ideals 
in its own way under the restrictions by which it is 
surrounded, and giving rise to the many variations of 
what we all recognize as one type, the genus homo. 
Among the permanent types thus produced, we find the 
extreme differences that are familiar to every one, such, 
for instance, as the olive complexion of the Spaniard, 
the fair complexion of the Caucassian, the copper hue of 
the Malay and the American Indian, the swarthy black 
of some African tribes and the pale brown of others. 
Shall we attribute these differences to the climate in 
which they are at present living, or the climates of the 
regions from which they migrated one, two, or three 
thousand years ago, or to still more ancient climatic 
influences? Or, are these peculiarities due to food and 
drink, or to intermarriage and inheritance? The last is 
the ordinary method of the modern experimentalist in 
evolving breeds of cattle distinguished by their color, 
their flesh, or their milk; thoroughbred horses distin- 
guished by their speed, their size, intelligence, or 



xxvi WEATHER INFLUENCES 

strength ; varieties of birds distinguished by their speed, 
their plumage, or their song ; species of plants or grains 
or fruits with almost any desired properties. In almost 
every case, one seeks to combine two appropriate cell 
structures or protoplasms, but never expects to directly 
alter the nature of the cells. Nature accomplishes the 
same result by selection and survival of the fittest. By 
cultivating a special crop in a new climate the plants do 
seem to become inured to that climate and to change their 
nature, but this is by virtue of a recognized law in plant 
life, viz., that erratic cells, or so-called "sports" are con- 
tinually being produced. Perhaps we ought to say that 
Nature, in her efforts to reproduce a cell like that of the 
original seed, actually produces millions of attempts 
that resemble the original seed to a greater or less degree, 
quite in accordance with the law of probability of errors. 
That is to say, out of a hundred seeds from the same 
plant, there is an even chance that 75 will be like the 
original seed. There is also an even chance that five 
will differ in some notable respect from the original seed. 
If any one of these latter five chance to fall in the proper 
spot and grow, that plant becomes the so-called "sport" 
of the botanist, and by proper cultivation may be made 
to give rise to a permanent new variety. In this way 
plants adapted to every variety of climate have been 
produced, and the process goes on naturally in the open 
field, as well as artificially in the greenhouse. The 
winds, the rivers, the ocean currents, birds and animals 
scatter the seeds; they are carried to regions where the 
normal seeds will not thrive, but where the sports may. 
When the latter brings forth its first and second and 



INTRODUCTION xxvii 

third crops, including many of its own "sports," the 
wind has begun to carry these latter into distant regions, 
where they alone can thrive. By an almost perfectly 
analogous and natural method migratory tribes have 
carried from one country to another the seeds of culti- 
vated crops that grew in the former home, and have 
found that in the new home only a very few of these will 
thrive; but after a few generations the sports among 
these have brought forth enough seed to produce crops 
sufficient to support the tribe. In this way, for instance, 
the grains that now ripen in a few weeks during the wet 
spring and short summer in southern Russia have been 
evolved from grains that required long seasons in west- 
ern Europe. In this way the grains that ripen in warm 
temperatures and sunny skies in southern Europe have 
been carried to the extreme north step by step, where 
they ripen in a few weeks at low temperatures. In this 
way the grains brought from the Atlantic coast of 
Europe and America and carried to the plains of Kan- 
sas, Nebraska and Dakota were found to be wholly 
unfitted, and by failure threatened famine and the 
abandonment of the land as unfertile, until another race 
of agriculturists, profiting by the lesson, discovered that 
one must educate the seed to the climate, or must sow in 
a given climate the seed that has been successful in that 
same climate elsewhere. So far as concerns the growth 
of cereals and nearly all food plants, the proper climate 
consists in a proper proportion of rainfall and sunshine 
or temperature at the respective stages of growth, or, 
according to Linseer's law, every seed, in its attempt to 
reproduce a new crop of seed, utilizes and must have a 



XXViii WEATHER INFLUENCES 

certain percentage of the annual sunshine, the moisture, 
and the heat proper to the climate in which it grew, and 
this proportion remains the same, no matter what the 
latitude of the place or what the seasonal distribution of 
rain and cloud. 

In this way, step by step, the sports of the annuals 
become perennials, and those of perennials, annuals ; the 
sports of endogerms become exogerms, and those of 
exogerms, endogerms; humble flowers become shrubs 
and shrubs trees, and the whole plant world may easily 
be but an evolution from some single cell. 

By precisely analogous means, the races of mankind 
must have developed. It is impossible at the present 
time to say with certainty what leads to the formation of 
the sport cells. It is. not at all likely that climate has much 
to do with that. The structure of the male and female 
cells, with all their inherent variations is a matter of 
chemistry and physiology, in which, of course, pressure, 
temperature, and moisture, and the gaseous components 
of the atmosphere must have some influence, but it does 
not seem likely that the climate is the predominant influ- 
ence. On the other hand when the sport cell or ripe seed 
is once formed, then the question of the survival and 
growth of the cell and the development of its progeny 
is so entirely a matter of climate and food that we must 
speak not so much of the influence of climate on man- 
kind as of the adaptability of seed to climate. 

Dry and sunny but variable weather certainly stimu- 
lates bodily and mental activity, increasing what is gen- 
erally called the nervousness of many individuals, while 
a moist and sunny, hot, monotonous climate induces 



INTRODUCTION xxix 

lassitude, indolence, and mental inactivity that can be 
counteracted only by stimulating food. In the latter 
case, it is difficult to accomplish the same amount of work 
as in the former case, and in fact less work is usually 
done. Such climatic conditions have contributed to the 
perpetuity of slavery, but the origin of this social condi- 
tion is traceable more directly to the wars and rivalries 
of domineering men, regardless of climatic conditions. 
In the same tribe or family, in the same household, and 
under identical conditions as to climate, food, clothing, 
and customs we find every variety of character and taste. 
The strong grow at the expense of the weak. "To him 
that hath shall be given." In every country the success- 
ful grazier or farmer, merchant, or politician or soldier 
may domineer over the less successful. In Arabia and 
Africa, the stronger tribes enslave the weaker and sell 
them to the slave trader. The feebler race suffers from 
the system of slavery; the stronger race prospers mate- 
rially and physically but suffers from an intellectual and 
moral point of view. We find an analogous problem in 
the service of our domestic animals ; man has long since 
enslaved the dog, horse, cow, camel, elephant, and by 
the care that he has taken of these animals he has gener- 
ally improved their condition even though they have 
become dependent creatures. He has probably im- 
proved his own condition by reason of the attention that 
he has given to the problem of exacting a better service 
from them. This argument merely exemplifies the 
mistakes of those who attribute to climate directly that 
deterioration of the human race that is supposed to be 
due to hot climates. The fact is that we find in all trop- 



xxx WEATHER INFLUENCES 

ical countries as great a variety of men and talent as in 
the temperate countries. Each has its dominant race 
and subjugate tribe. The ruined cities found in central 
Africa, Central America, and India, and even the mon- 
uments in Polynesia, demonstrate that at one time or 
other in history those countries have known dominant 
races, on the road to the development of a higher civili- 
zation. The fact that many races have gone under, both 
in Asia and Europe, both in the tropic and in the temper- 
ate zones, is to be attributed to the fact that the inefficient 
are thinned out by rivalries, wars, and natural selection. 
If the severity of a climate hastens this process, it may 
thereby hasten the development of a race. The long 
lived animals and plants develop slowly before they 
reach maturity. 

We have good foundation for the belief that a race 
may develop as well in one portion of the globe as an- 
other so far as climate is concerned, after it has once 
become acclimated. The period over which our most 
accurate history and observation extends is too short to 
justify us in anything more than the recognition of the 
fact that at the present time the dominant races are 
scattered around the north temperate zone, some of them 
in cold, dry, others in warm, moist climates, some in 
equable, and others in variable climates, and that they 
hold power over other tribes both in temperate and 
tropic zones by the power of their guns and powder 
rather than by any physical superiority ; their intellectual 
development has been essentially the result of breeding 
and the building up of families by great attention to 
genealogies. Their motto has been, "Blood will tell." 



INTRODUCTION xxxi 

We must not attribute to climate that which is more 
likely to be due to inheritance, but having allowed for 
the latter influence, we may then search among the out- 
standing discrepancies for that which is properly due to 
weather and climate, and this, as we understand it, is 
what Mr. Dexter has done in the book now before us. 

CLEVELAND ABBE. 

Washington, D. C, 
June, 1904. 



CHAPTER I 



SOURCES AND NATURE OF WEATHER LORE 

The modern science of meteorology, emerging from 
the mist and darkness of ignorant guess and surmise, 
has left its path strewn with many a shattered idol. 
Jupiter Tonans the Thunderer, Pluvius the Rainmaker, 
and a hundred other weather gods were toppled from 
their lofty pedestals ages ago, while St. Swithin and his 
two score of saintly colleagues, whose days dominated 
the weather for the rest of the year, have been quite as 
surely, if more recently, dethroned by the delicate instru- 
ments and skillful calculations of the modern weather 
man. 

It is interesting to turn the gaze backward and view 
in the light of modern scientific research the fallacies 
that have been corrected and the superstitions that have 
been lived down. In the centuries that are gone, each 
event was a portent; Nature's moods were not inter- 
preted adequately in terms of cause and effect. As a 
consequence, the weather prophets were likely to fore- 
cast that which was most wished for, and to lay down as 
a general, if not infallible law, that which was a mere 
coincidence of totally independent events. 

The enormous extent to which such foretelling has 

been carried on, is shown by the vast array of weather 

2 l 



2 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

proverbs and adages handed down from the past. The 
origin of these proverbs may doubtless be traced in 
general to the universal tendency of mankind to philoso- 
phize, and in particular to the instinct of primitive races 
to join together striking phenomena as if in a causal 
sequence. Often these phenomena had no inherent 
connection, but early man and to an extent later peoples, 
only with difficulty and after much experience have been 
able to distinguish between the merely temporal and the 
efficiently causal. As to the latter term of this sequence 
its striking character is self-evident, though we of to-day 
can hardly realize the full significance of weather condi- 
tions under ruder modes of life, when man was the 
buffet of wind and storm. 

It is not strange, then, that the attention of the earlier 
races, and even those of later periods before meteor- 
ological observation had become scientific, should have 
been drawn to the "skyey influences;" to-day the vio- 
lences of nature are often extremely disastrous, even 
with our many means of protection from their severities 
and our scientific methods for predicting their approach, 
but in the earlier times their effects were far more 
appalling. Even our Galveston horror pales before the 
magnitude of some of the recorded results of great 
storms of earlier times. 

No race of people has, probably, been more subservient 
to weather influences than our Anglo-Saxon ancestors. 
In their early home on the Continent, by the shores of 
the tempestuous North Sea, they waged a continual, at 
times a life and death struggle, with the forces of nature. 
Floods inundated their low-lying country, storms swept 
away their handiwork, winter brought hardships and 



SOURCES AND NATURE OF WEATHER LORE 3 

sometimes death. The earliest literature of the Anglo- 
Saxons clearly shows how important to them were these 
weather conditions. The Old-English poem, Beowulf, 
originating in the early home of our English ances- 
tors, is in its germ the story of the sun god, who over- 
comes the rigors of winter, and subdues an unfriendly 
nature, only in turn to be destroyed by those forces over 
which he was temporarily victorious. The vein of 
pessimism which runs through this earlier literature may, 
possibly, be due in part to the feeling that man was at 
the complete mercy of a power which, though sometimes 
friendly, was capricious, and often destructive. In 
their new home, too, the English found nature, though 
hardly so deadly as on the Continent, still often sombre 
and disastrous to crops and possessions. Small wonder, 
then, that our literature abounds from the earliest time 
in sayings and predictions in regard to the weather. Its 
practical significance continually forced the phenomena 
of sky and sea on the minds of the people. 

It is not difficult to see then why this second term of 
the relation, atmospheric conditions, should have con- 
stantly been in the attention of mankind; but what 
factors determined the selection of the first term, those 
phenomena as cause to which the weather was related as 
a result? As has already been said, the phenomena of 
the first class must have been also of a striking nature, 
so that they too would gain the attention, in order to be 
joined in a real or supposed causal series. The query 
then naturally follows as to what were some of the most 
striking phenomena, which would arouse the interest of 
primitive man. We find among all nations that the 
heavenly bodies, particularly the sun and moon, were 



4 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

regarded with wonder, often with superstitious awe and 
reverence. It is clear, therefore, why these phenomena 
should become connected in the minds of the people with 
violent storms, destructive droughts, and disastrous 
floods. Inasmuch as there doubtless is a relation 
between certain of these phenomena and weather condi- 
tions, many proverbs of this character have a basis of 
truth in them and contain to this day elements of 
meteorology. Another extensive set of weather prov- 
erbs which might be designated as "special day" pre- 
dictions are of much less scientific value, since the first 
term of the causal series, though striking, seems to have 
no fundamental relation whatever to the sequent weather 
change. For the most part they are based upon some 
supposed influence of a particular day, such as Christ- 
mas, New Year's or some special feast day of the church 
calendar, upon the weather for long periods to follow. 
Still a third set of phenomena which gained the attention 
of early man is connected with the habits and nature of 
both wild and domesticated animals ; and since, as will be 
shown in a later chapter, an unconscious teleology has 
established a subtle connection between brute life and 
weather conditions, it happens that often weather prov- 
erbs of this nature, too, have elements of a scientific 
validity. There can be no doubt, also, that in this 
earliest expression of weather wisdom there was a seek- 
ing after truth which was based on a practical scientific 
spirit. For these various reasons it happens that these 
earliest proverbs have best endured the test of time. 
Their observations were inaccurate in many cases, and 
deductions were made from woefully insufficient data; 
but, nevertheless, they were conscientiously made. All 



SOURCES AND NATURE OF WEATHER LORE 5 

three of these general classes of weather proverbs accu- 
mulated throughout the centuries. Some of them can be 
traced back to a single origin of greater or less authentic- 
ity, while others seem to have passed current in many and 
isolated parts of the earth, even before there can well 
have been any direct communication between those parts, 
or any evident circulating medium for facts or opinion. 
When the latter is the case, there is usually some scientific 
basis for the dictum, the more exact methods of meteor- 
ology having proved the approximate accuracy of the 
truths usually expressed in the crudest of doggerel. 

As time went on, conditions of life were improved, and 
the stern demand of a practical necessity, always a sure 
corrective of scientific inaccuracy, was to a degree 
removed, giving a scope for fancy and caprice. Here 
belongs an influence which in later days has been a 
determining condition in the formulation of much of 
our weather lore; the tendency to compose a rhyme or 
jingle, often in a humorous vein. There is reason to 
believe that many of the most catchy of the weather 
proverbs owe their origin to this latter tendency, which 
reached its height in England a couple of centuries or 
so ago — about the time the crop of weather proverbs 
seems to have been most abundant. Rhyme was sought 
at any expense to the truth, and so potent was the craze 
for it that it invaded even the most serious affairs of life, 
as is shown by the inscription upon many a crumbling 
tomb-stone in the country church-yard. One especially 
to the point, and bearing a seventeenth century date, is 
as follows: 

"Here lieth the Body of Thomas Woodhen 
The Kindest of Husbands, and best of men." 



6 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

Directly beneath is the explanation: "His name was 
Woodcock, but that would not come in rhyme." Even 
so, we cannot tell what many of our weather couplets 
might be, if some other words had "come in rhyme" 
better ; and are forced to believe that quite the opposite, 
in so unimportant a matter as the predicted condition, 
would not have troubled the conscience of the framers 
<of many of this class of wise sayings so severely as a 
missing foot, or an unrhymed line. 

This tendency to make rhyme at the expense of truth 
has perhaps more than anything else brought the whole 
mass of weather lore, though unjustly, we believe, into 
disrepute. Even among our good English friends 
across the sea, who have the reputation of failing fre- 
quently to see the funny side of things, there have been 
current snatches of verse which surely indicate a feeling 
of irony regarding the weather prognostics of the time. 
A sixteenth century writer has expressed the sentiment 
in these quaint lines : 

"For the year of Chryste's Incarnacyon 
A thousand fyve hundred fortye and f oure, 
This to prognosticate I may be bolde, 
That when the newe yeare is come, gone is the old." 

Ben Jonson, too, in Every Man Out of His Humour, 
made one of his characters read out of a penny almanac 
and say: 

"Oh, here, St. Swithin, the 15th day, variable weather, 
for the most part rain! Good! 'For the most part 
rain?' Why, it should rain for forty days after, more 
or less. It was a rule held afore I was able to hold a 
plough, and yet here are two days no rain; ha! It 
makes me muse." 



SOURCES AND NATURE OF WEATHER LORE 7 

Nor is subtle irony wanting in the following, which was 
written by one familiar not only with popular prognos- 
tications and their contradiction, but also with the gen- 
eral character of the British climate : 

"The South wind always brings wet weather, 
The North wind wet and cold together ; 
The West wind always brings us rain, 
The East wind blows it back again ; 
If the sun in red should set, 
The next day surely will be wet ; 
If the sun should set in gray 
The next will be a rainy day." 

For a mild sarcasm, the following rhyme of Bedford- 
shire, where all the names mentioned are of well known 
people, is admirable: 

"Well, Duncomb, how will be the weather ? 
Sir, it looks cloudy altogether, 
And coming across our Houghton Green, 
I stopped and talked with old Frank Breane. 
While we stood there, sir, old Jan Swain 
Went by and said he knowed 'twould rain ; 
The next that came was Master Hunt, 
And he declared he knew it wouldn't. 
And then I met with Farmer Blow 
He plainly said he didn't know, 
So sirs when doctors disagree 
Who's to decide it, you or me ?" 

Mr. Sharon Turner, in his History of the Anglo- 
Saxons, seems especially skeptical regarding the whole 
question of weather lore. He says : 

"Their prognostics from the sun and moon, from 
thunder and from dreams were so numerous as to dis- 



8 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

play and perpetuate a most lamentable debility of mind" 
— "one day was useful for all things: another, though 
good to tame animals, was baleful to sow seeds. One 
day was favorable to the commencement of business; 
another to let blood ; and others wore a forbidding aspect 
to these and other things.' ' 

In spite, however, of such iconoclastic sentiments, it 
seems probable that within the whole mass of weather 
wisdom, we have, beside the literary flights of the rhym- 
ster, plenty of evidence of the true basis of our modern 
meteorological science. To attempt to separate the true 
from the false is not my plan; and, indeed, in all prob- 
ability, it could not be done. Sir John Herschel (Note 
the Weather and Weather Reports, Good Words, Vol. 
5, p. 87), recognizing the dilemma, has, however, made 
the following suggestion, expressed with his usual scien- 
tific caution, which, if followed by all, might make the 
problem a simple one : 

"We would strongly recommend any of our readers 
whose occupations lead them to attend the 'signs of the 
weather,' and who from hearing a particular weather 
adage oft repeated, and from noticing, themselves, 
marked examples of its verification have begun to put 
faith in it, to commence keeping a notebook and to set 
down without bias all the instances which occur to them 
of the recognized antecedent, and the occurrence or non- 
occurrence of the expected consequent, not omitting to set 
down the cases in which it is left undecided — remember- 
ing always that the absence of a majority, one way or 
the other, would, of itself, be an improbability, and that 
therefore to have any weight, the majority should be a 
very decided one, and that, not only in itself, but with 



SOURCES AND NATURE OF WEATHER LORE 9 

reference to the neutral instances. We are all involun- 
tarily much more strongly impressed by the fulfillment 
than by the failure of a prediction, and it is only through 
thus placing ourselves face to face with fact that we can 
fully divest ourselves of this bias." 



CHAPTER II 

THE WEATHER LORE OF THE "SKYEY 
INFLUENCES." 

The first class of weather proverbs, those in which 
striking phenomena of the heavens have been singled 
out as causes for storm and flood, and which in some 
instances, as has been said, have a basis of truth, are 
among the most ancient examples of our weather lore. 
These sayings have to do with such commonly accepted 
beliefs as those relating to the changes of the moon, 
clouds, etc. Among them the equinoctial storms come 
in for a good share of attention, while halos, sun dogs, 
moon rings and such other unusual occurrences as were 
anciently regarded as portents, are fully exploited. Of 
such consist the earliest collection of weather signs 
ascribed to Theophrastus, in the fourth century, B. C. He 
says, after speaking of signs derived from domestic and 
other animals: "But for the most part signs derived 
from the sun and moon are the most important." "The 
ends and beginnings of lunar months are apt to be 
stormy, because light fails from the fourth day before 
till the fourth day after a new moon. The obscuration 
of the moon occurs in a similar way to the eclipse of the 
sun." He states also that the call of the tree toad is a 
precursor of rain; and adds: "The ass shaking its ears 

10 



WEATHER LORE OF THE "SKYEY INFLUENCES" \\ 

is a sign of storm," both of which sayings have come 
down to us in a much modernized form as is shown in 
the next chapter. 

Of all these "skyey influences" the moon was univer- 
sally accredited with being the most powerful. Lunar 
prognostications may be roughly classed under two 
heads: the first those having to do with halos, coronas, 
lunar rainbows, and the so-called watery moon. All 
these do, undoubtedly, indicate the presence of moisture, 
either in the lower or higher regions of the atmosphere, 
and are probably the most trustworthy of all the sup- 
posed lunar influences. The second class of lunar 
influences are those based in a purely arbitrary way 
upon the hour of day or night at which the changes of 
the moon take place. These show no scientific insight 
and are due simply to the joining together of striking 
phenomena which have no fundamental connection. Of 
lunar influences in general, Sir John Herschel wrote as 
follows {Good Words, 5:58) : 

"The moon is often appealed to as a great indicator of 
the weather, and especially to changes as taken in con- 
junction with some prevailing state of the wind and sky. 
As an attracting body, causing an 'aerial tide' it has, of 
course, an effect, but is utterly insignificant as a 
meteorological cause. The only effect distinctly con- 
nected with its position with regard to the sun which can 
be reckoned with, with any certainty, is its tendency to 
clear the sky of clouds, and to produce not only a serene, 
but a calm night. This, however, is more than a simple 
connotation; the effect in question, so far as the clear- 
ance of the sky is concerned, is traceable to a distinct 
physical cause, the warmth radiating from its highly 



12 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

heated surface ; though why the effect should not remain 
several nights after the full is problematical." More 
recently Mr. H. A. Hazen, late of the U. S. Weather 
Bureau, has said ("Jour. Am. Folk Lore," 13:195) : 

"It must be admitted that the universality of belief 
that the moon in some way affects our weather to a 
marked degree is hard to account for. Has this belief 
been handed down from a common origin in the dim 
past or have the different nations arrived at the same 
conclusions independently? It is quite difficult to learn 
just what the common idea is. In New England there 
is a general belief that storms accompany the new moon 
and, indeed, for such a belief scientific observations 
along the eastern coast show some basis. This, however, 
entirely fails in the interior, and on the Pacific coast the 
full moon seems to be the time of greatest precipitation. 
That the belief in lunar influences has touched the world 
of science as well as that of astrology, is shown by the 
fact that the following lunar table is ascribed to Herschel 
the elder: 

"Constructed upon a philosophical consideration of 
the great attraction of the sun and moon in their several 
positions and respecting the earth, and confirmed by the 
experience of many years actual observation." 

LUNAR TABLE 

If it be new or full moon, or 

the moon enter into the first or last quarter at : 





In Summer. 


In Winter. 


Noon 


Very rainy 


Snow and rain. 


From 2 to 4 p. m. 


Changeable 


Fair and mild. 


4 to 6 


Fair 


Fair. 


6 to 8 


Fair, Wind NW. 


Fair and frosty, N. or NE, 




Rain " SW. 


Rain, S. or SW. 



WEATHER LORE OF THE "SKYEY INFLUENCES" 13 

In Summer In Winter 

8 to 10 Fair if NW. Fair and frosty if N. or NE. 

Rain if SW. Rain if S. or SW. 

10 to midnight Fair Fair and frosty. 

to 2 Fair Hard frost unless S. or SW. 

2 to 4 Cold with showers Snow and stormy. 

4 to 6 Rain " " 

6 to 8 Wind and rain Stormy. 

9 to 10 Changeable Cold rain W., snow E. 
10 to noon Frequent showers Cold with high winds. 

This table, it might be added, is indignantly repudiated 
by Herschel the younger, who denies that his father 
could have been guilty of such a monstrous folly — which 
is probably true. 

To weather wisdom of the first class, mentioned above, 
Vergil was one of the earliest contributors through the 
lines : 

"When Luna first her scattered fear recalls, 
If with blunt horns she holds the dusky air, 
Seamen and swain predict abundant shower." 

Here, of course, the "blunt horns" are but the visible 
evidences of much moisture in the upper strata of the 
atmosphere. Sir Patrick Spens, in the fourteenth 
century ballad of that name, has also made visible signs 
of moisture, as evinced by the moon, the subject of 
poetical comment : 

"Late, late yestereen I saw the new moon, 
With the old one in his arm, 
And I fear, I fear, my master dear, 
That we shall come to harm." 

And our own Longfellow has given poetical expression 
to the same idea in the lines : 



14 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

"I pray thee, put into yonder port, 
For I fear the hurricane. 
Last night the moon had a golden ring 
And to-night no moon we see." 

Predictions of this general character are more apt to 
contain truth than are others concerning the moon, since 
they reflect meteorological conditions which are gener- 
ally prevalent before a storm. 

By far the greater number of lunar predictions, how- 
ever, are of a quite different character and seem to have 
little actual physical basis for validity, although they 
are perhaps the most popularly accepted of all. In 
great part they have to do with changes of the moon and 
the supposed influence of such changes upon the weather. 
The table already given, as ascribed to Herschel, illus- 
trates fully the character of such predictions. Many 
of them have been done into rhyme, as illustrated by the 
following, relating to the new moon: 

"When first the moon appears, if then she shrouds 
Her silver crescent, tipped with sable clouds, 
Conclude she bodes a tempest on the main, 
And brews for fields, tempestuous floods of rain. 
Or if her face with fiery flushings flow 
Expect the rattling wind aloft to blow. 
But four nights old, (for that is the best sign,) 
With sharpened horns, if glorious then she shine, 
Next day, not only that, but all the moon 
Till her revolving race be wholly run, 
Are void of tempests both by land and sea." 



And again: 



"In the old of the moon 
A cloudy morning means a fair afternoon." 



WEATHER LORE OF THE "SKYEY INFLUENCES" 15 

One can hardly get into any neighborhood, however 
remote, without hearing the prediction of some wiseacre 
that there will be no change of weather till the change of 
the moon. More or less scientific attempts have been 
made from time to time to verify or disprove this belief, 
the results usually lacking any semblance of its verifica- 
tion. Dr. Horsely examined the weather tables of 1774, 
as published by the Royal Society, and found that of 
forty-six changes of weather that year, only ten occurred 
upon days of "lunar influence," but two of these being 
at new moon, and none at all at the full. M. Flauger- 
gues found also as the result of twenty years' obser- 
vation that the barometer readings taken when the moon 
was farthest from the earth averaged 755mm., and when 
nearest 754mm., showing a difference of but one milli- 
meter; and this in a direction opposite to that which 
would probably exist, if the relation between the earth 
and the moon were to form a valid basis for the mass of 
weather lore bearing on the point. On the whole we 
are inclined to believe, in spite of popular sentiment to 
the contrary, that 

"The moon and the weather 
May change together. 
But a change of the moon 
Does not change the weather." 

From Aristotle's time, the value of cloud signs in 
storm and rain prognostications has been recognized, 
but the full interpretation of their meaning has been 
possible only since fully organized meteorological service 
has been established. Weather proverbs bearing upon 
this special phase of prediction are very numerous, no 



16 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

less than eighty-two examples being given by Dun- 
woody, many of them absolutely contradictory, and 
ascribing almost every effect to each peculiarity of cloud 
formation. 

The greatest unanimity of opinion seems to center 
about the so-called mackerel sky, as is shown by the 
following : 

"Mackerel sky, mackerel sky, 
Never long wet, never long dry," 



and, 

The rhyme, 



"Mackerel scales and mares' tails 
Make lofty ships carry low sails." 



"If clouds be bright 
'Twill clear to-night. 
If clouds be dark 
'Twill rain do you hark?" 

is a very plausible suggestion based upon other cloud 
effects. The poet has not been the only transmitter of 
weather lore of this character, and we find some of the 
sayings much more specific, and couched in language 
not unscientific, as is shown by the following : 

"Soft looking, delicate clouds foretell fine weather with weak, 
moderate or light breezes. Hard edged, oily appearing clouds, 
wind. A dark, gloomy blue sky indicates wind ; a bright blue sky, 
clear, fine weather. Generally the softer the clouds, the less wind. 
Small clouds foretell rain." 

That in statements of this nature we have the 
approach to a true meteorological science' we cannot 
doubt. In them there is no evidence of the supernatural 
and, when couched in common sense prose, nothing of 
the spectacular, but the fullest evidence of careful, scien- 
tific observation and generalization. 



WEATHER LORE OF THE "SKYEY INFLUENCES" 17 

So much cannot, however, be said concerning the 
weather lore of comets and stars. An old French 
proverb runs: 

"Comets are said to improve the grape crop, and wines produced 
in years when comets appear is called comet wine." 

The Apache Indians, interested in quite other matters, 
say: 

"After an unusual fall of meteors, dry weather is expected. All 
comets evidence the approach of some calamity, such as drought, 
famine, war, floods, etc." 

Mists, fogs and frosts have come in for their full 
share of attention from the weather prophet. 

"So many mists in March we see, 
So many frosts in May shall be. 
So many fogs in August we see, 
So many snows that year will be." 

does not impress us with the utmost confidence, while 

"When the mist is on the hill 
Then good weather it shall spill," 

carries with it a smack, at least, of probability. 

The wind has received so much attention on the part 
of the weather wiseacres that no study of prognostica- 
tions would be complete without allusion to its porten- 
tous and highly contradictory effects. That they should 
be contradictory is not at all surprising, when we remem- 
ber that wind influences are essentially local and that 
weather proverbs are frequently taken from their proper 
geographical setting — for which they might be approx- 
imately true — and given credence in other surroundings. 

"When the wind is in the north 

The skillful fisher goes not forth ; 

When the wind is in the east 
3 



18 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

'Tis neither good for man nor beast ; 
When the wind is in the south 
It blows the fly in the fishes' mouth ; 
When the wind is in the west 
Then it is the very best." 

This is accredited to Isaac Walton, and certainly seems 
to express the interests of that doughty old fisherman. 
Whether we should wish to accept it at all as a working 
hypothesis is a question, though a Bostonian could 
probably subscribe to at least two lines of it. 

"When the wind is in the northwest 
The weather is at its best ; 
But if the wind comes out of the east 
'Twill rain twenty-four hours at least," 



and, 



'Northwest wind brings a short storm ; 
A northeast wind brings a long storm," 



were probably not written by the same author. The 
tendency which we noted earlier in this chapter of ascrib- 
ing special power to some special day, is not lacking in 
wind lore. 



"Where the wind is on Candlemas Day 
There it will stick till the end of May ;' 



and again, 



"If New Year's Eve, wind blow from the south, 
It betokeneth warmth and drouth ; 
If west, much milk and fish in sea ; 
If north, much cold and storm there'll be ; 
If east, the trees will bear much fruit ; 
If north, flee it man and beast," 



are illustrations of this. 



WEATHER LORE OF THE "SKYEY INFLUENCES" 19 

The equinoctial storms are a fertile field for the 
weather prophet, and many of his proverbs relating 
especially to the months of March and September are 
redolent of gales. In spite of all this, however, and the 
popular beliefs regarding equinoctial hurricanes, hardly 
anything in weather lore seems less in accordance with 
the facts, and it looks as if our faith in them must suffer 
a shock, for the records seem all against us. Nature, 
Vol. 30, page 288, gives us the following interesting 
facts : 

"For all the years 1870-1884, inclusive, a careful 
record of the severe storms occurring in the vicinity of 
the British Isles was kept and tabulated, with the idea 
of ascertaining their periodicity. 

"Although there was shown to be something of a 
rhythm in their annual occurrence, the results showed 
no greater frequency at the equinoxes than any other 
time; in fact, that other periods, especially during the 
winter months, were much more liable to be accompanied 
by marked weather disturbances than just this time, the 
reputation of which is so bad for unseemly behavior." 

Another class of weather proverbs, which from our 
point of view hardly deserve mention at all in a study of 
weather influences, are those which find some supposed 
relationship between a particular day or season, and the 
weather which follows it. From what has already been 
said, it is clear how a part, at least, of the proverbs of 
this sort have come into existence. These days are the 
striking ones of the calendar and call attention to them- 
selves. A severe storm or a destructive drought fol- 
lows; and the two phenomena are naturally though 
unjustifiably associated. Since there is no real basis for 



20 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

such association, proverbs of this class are scientifically 
worthless. The most improbable, even of this improb- 
able class, are those which impute to some special day, or 
days, simply because of its number in the month or week, 
or its numerical or other relation to something else in the 
calendar, a dominating influence over the weather for 
long periods to come. As an illustration, "The twelve 
days commencing December 25 and ending January 5, 
are said to be the keys of the weather for the year," and 
"The first three days of January rule the coming three 
months" (the contradiction between these two seems to 
have troubled no one) . Sayings of this general char- 
acter are almost innumerable. And it is evident at a 
mere glance that they are due solely to the general 
tendency to symbolize, so prevalent a few centuries ago, 
and to some Pythagorean belief in the mystical power 
of numbers. An observational basis there certainly was 
not. 

Another class of sayings, differing but slightly from 
the last, in some cases at least having a slight excuse for 
being, are those which ascribe to some special feast day 
powers little short of miraculous. Of all the saints in 
the calendar, St. Swithin seemed to be the most be- 
rhymed; and, if we are to judge by the number who even 
to this day look to him as the supreme rainmaker of the 
year, the most respected. The verse : 

"St. Swithin's day, if thou dost rain, 
For forty days it will remain. 
St. Swithin's day, if thou be fair, 
For forty days 'twill rain nae mair," 

is a fair illustration of this class. Candlemas Day, too, 
comes in for more than its share of attention : 



WEATHER LORE OF THE "SKYEY INFLUENCES" 21 

"If Candlemas Day be fair and clear, 
There'll be two winters in that one year," 



and, 



"If Candlemas Day be clear and bright 
Winter'll have another flight ; 
But if Candlemas Day be clouds and rain, 
Winter is gone, and will not come again," 

suggests the supposed dominance of this day over the 
weather of late winter and early spring. 

Christmas, as might be expected, was not neglected 
by the primitive weather man. An old English proverb 
says: 

"If the ice will bear a man before Christmas, it will not bear a 
man afterwards," 

and again, 

"A green Christmas makes a full graveyard," 

and, 

"A green Christmas indicates a white Easter." 

We must interpret such proverbs, in justice to their 
framers, as indicating some sort of fixed relation be- 
tween one time of year and another and not as indicating 
any supernatural influence of the day itself, or even of 
its patron saint. Undoubtedly, too, the relation dis- 
covered and asserted in the proverb is founded upon 
observation and is, in the long run, a true one. 

Weather periodicity and a certain rhythm in the 
occurrence of storms have been demonstrated beyond a 
doubt, and many of these special day-predictions are 
undoubtedly among the most valid of the whole mass of 
weather lore. It must, however, be admitted that a still 
larger number of them seem to have but an accidental 



22 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

origin in doggerel verse, and show nothing more than an 
insatiable desire on the part of some one to poetize. Of 
this, no example shows a stronger tendency than the 
following, taken from the Harleian Manuscript in the 
British Museum. The allusion in each verse to thieving 
and stealing, forms an interesting commentary upon the 
times in which it was written : 

"Lordlings, all of you I warn : 
If the day that Christ was born 
Fall upon a Sunday, 
The winter shall be good I say 
But great winds aloft shall be ; 
The summer shall be fair and dry 
By kind skill and without loss, 
Through all lands there shall be peace 
Good time for all things to be done 
But he that stealeth shall be found soon ; 
What child that day born may be, 
A great lord he shall live to be. 

"If Christmas day on Monday be, 
A great winter that year you'll see, 
And full of winds, both loud and shrill, 
But in the summer, truth to tell, 
Stern winds shall there be and strong, 
Full of trumpets, lasting long ; 
While battles they shall multiply 
And great plenty of beasts shall die ; 
Those that day be born I wean, 
They shall be strong each one, and keen. 
He shall be found that stealeth aught 
Though thou be sick, thou diest not. 

"If Christmas day on Tuesday be, 
That year shall many women die, 
And that winter grow great marvels ; 



WEATHER LORE OF THE "SKYEY INFLUENCES" 23 

Ships shall be in great peril. 

That year shall kings and lords be slain, 

And many other people near them. 

A dry summer that year shall be 

As all that are born therein shall see ; 

They shall be strong and covetous. 

If thou steal aught, thou losest thy life, 

For thou shall die through sword or knife, 

But if thou fall sick 'tis certain 

Thou shall turn to life again. 

"If Christmas day, the truth to say, 
Fall upon a Wednesday, 
There shall be a hard winter and strong, 
With many hideous winds among. 
The summer merry and good shall be, 
And that year wheat in great plenty ; 
Young folks shall die that year also, 
And ships at sea shall have great woe. 
Whatever child that day is born is, 
He shall be doughty and gay, I wis, 
And wise and crafty also of deed, 
And find many in clothes and bread. 

"If Christmas day on Thursday be, 
A windy winter you shall see ; 
Windy weather in each week 
And hard tempests strong and thick. 
The summer shall be good and dry, 
Corn and beasts shall multiply ; 
That year is good, lands for to till ; 
Kings and princes shall die by skill. 
If a child that day born shall be, 
It shall happen right well for thee ; 
Of deeds he shall be good and stable, 
Wise of speech and reasonable. 
Whoso that day goes thieving about, 
He shall be punished without doubt ; 



24 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

And if sickness that day betide 
It shall quickly from thee glide. 

"If Christmas day on Friday be 
The first of winter hard shall be ; 
With frost and snow, and with great flood ; 
But the end thereof, it shall be good. 
Again, the summer shall be good also ; 
Folk in their eyes shall have great woe ; 
Women with child, beasts, and corn, 
Shall multiply and be lost none. 
The child that is born on that day, 
Shall live long, a bachelour be alway. 
Who stealeth aught shall be found out ; 
If thou be sick, it lasteth not. 

"If Christmas day on Saturday fall, 
That winter's to be dreaded by all ; 
It shall be so full of great tempest, 
That it shall slay both man and beast ; 
Great store shall fail of fruit and corn, 
And old folk die many a one, 
That woman that day of child doth travail, 
She shall give birth in great peril ; 
And children born that day by faith, 
In half a year shall meet with death. 
The summer shall be wet and ill ; 
Thou shalt suffer if aught thou steal 
Thou diest if sickness do thee take." 

So far as I know, nothing in the literature of weather 
lore expresses more fully its degeneracy than the pre- 
ceding, unless it be the one to follow, which truly out- 
Herods Herod in its attempt to leave nothing unsaid 
which might have a bearing on the question of a Sunday 
Christmas. We are truly to be congratulated that the 
remaining days of the week were not desecrated by the 



WEATHER LORE OF THE "SKYEY INFLUENCES" 25 

prophetic rhymster. The source of the verse is the 
same as the preceding: 

"If Christmas day on Sunday be, 
A troublous winter you shall see, 
Mingled with waters strongly ; 
Good there shall be without fable 
For the summer shall be reasonable, 
With storms at times among. 

"Wines that year shall be good, 
The harvest shall be wet with flood, 
Pestilence shall fall on many a country ; 
Ere that sickness shall have passed, 
And while great tempests last, 
Many young people dead shall be. 

"Princes that year with iron shall die, 
There shall be changing of many lords high, 
Amongst knights, great debate, 
Many tidings shalt come to men, 
Many wives shall be weeping then, 
Both of poor and great estate. 

"The faith shall then be hurt truly 
For divers points of heresy 
That shall then appear, 
Through the tempting of the fiend ; 
And divers matters unkind 
Shall bring great danger near. 

"Cattle shall thrive one and the other 
And oxen, they shall kill each other 
And some beasts shall die : 
Both fruit and corn will not be good, 
Apples will be scarce for food, 
And ships shall suffer on the sea. 



26 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

"That year, on Monday, without fearing 
All things well thou mayst begin, 
They shall be profitable. 
Children that on this day are born 
I'f aith shall mighty be and strong 
Of wit, full reasonable." 



CHAPTER III 



ANIMAL WEATHER LORE 

So extensive is the literature of weather proverbs that 
it would be possible to extend the study of them almost 
indefinitely. Such a study, at least in so far as those 
proverbs have to do with the supposed effect of one 
meteorological condition upon another, would, however, 
have hardly any scientific value, and would be of little 
interest, except to the morbidly curious. Yet there is 
a large field of weather wisdom, not yet touched upon, 
which is extremely suggestive to the comparative psychol- 
ogist, and from the point of view of weather influences, 
especially interesting. This is the field of animal lore 
as revealed by weather proverbs. Its extent is some- 
thing enormous. It would seem as if every animal, and 
even plant, with which man is familiar had been accred- 
ited, by some one, with especial power of prognostication 
and boldly championed in prose or verse. In these 
records, we have the earliest note books of the compara- 
tive psychologists, and many of them show clean pages 
of truth, even under the higher illumination of modern 
scientific method. Yet we cannot deny that the rhyming 
craze has entered into the problem, and that undoubtedly 
many writers have been more willing to spoil truth than 

27 



28 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

rhythm; but on the whole this class of weather lore is 
comparatively trustworthy. 

Its whole basis is psychological. Nature has provided 
many of the lower animals, as a means of protection, 
with more delicate sensory organs than man. That such 
an hyperaesthetic power is a necessity with them would 
hardly be denied by any one who has been in a position 
to observe the terrible devastation which nature, in some 
of her moods, brings about. An English writer has 
recently touched upon this point in "The Spectator." 
(Vol. 85, p. 883, etseq.). 

"In this country, wet springs and summers seem to 
affect most forms of animal life. There are few butter- 
flies or moths. All young birds suffer, especially game. 
Rabbits and hares die of fluke and dysentery; calves, 
sheep and lambs of various ailments. Myriads of wild 
birds' eggs are addled or the young birds die in the nests. 
Even rats decrease. Fish do not thrive, because there 
are few insects. Even kingfishers decrease on the 
Thames, because the wet soaks into the holes in which 
they breed. There is reason to conjecture that a wet 
summer around our coast actually reduces the number 
of fish in the sea and of marine life generally. This 
may seem a paradox, but it is borne out partly by the 
increase of marine life after dry years, partly by the 
recent discoveries as to the hatching and life of the 
spawn of sea creatures. 

"The season of 1900, for instance, has seen the most 
teeming marine life known for years around our shores. 
But the early summer of 1900 was exceptionally cold 
and wet. So it was, and it destroyed the young part- 
ridges, rabbits and hares. But the sea creatures are not 



ANIMAL WEATHER LORE 29 

made in one summer like the partridges. The herrings, 
of which the record catch was made, the bass which were 
caught in thousands off Dover, the innumerable cuttle 
fish, the solid shoals of mackerel taken off the Irish 
coast, perhaps were adult fish, and hatched in unusual 
numbers in the three previous hot summers, when no 
cold rains were chilling the surface of the sea and keep- 
ing down temperatures. For it is on the surface of the 
sea that the untold millions of eggs of most of the food 
fish float, and it is there, too, that the minute creatures 
swim and breed, and lay their invisible eggs on which the 
rest of the sea fish feed. Thus rain and cold may be as 
fatal to the life of the ocean, as they are to the life on 
dry land. Wet weather spoils even the harvest of the 
sea." 

Although this description has to do with long contin- 
ued drought or dry weather, which the members of the 
animal kingdom could neither escape nor modify, even 
if they foresaw its approach, there are numerous weather 
changes of shorter duration, to make preparation for 
which means all the difference between life and death, 
or at least between a winning and losing struggle for 
existence. For some of the larger carnivora, a severe 
storm means perhaps the loss of so much food as to 
reduce the animal to a point of weakness which brings 
about defeat in his struggle with competition. It is a 
well known fact that for the mother bird to be absent 
from the nest during a severe storm would mean the 
utter destruction of the young in the cases of many 
species of the feathered kingdom ; while to many of the 
insect tribe, the state of the weather for even a day may 
determine the question of life or death. But nature has 



30 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

recognized all this dependence and has given to these 
creatures some subtile sense, unknown and unpossessed 
by us, by which minute changes in atmospheric condition 
can be appreciated, and actions determined accordingly. 
In response to some organic feeling brought about by 
this peculiar state of the atmosphere, the animal does 
certain things, undoubtedly as a purely reflex act, not 
knowing why; still he does them. Man observed these 
peculiarities of action and noted them. But the atmos- 
pheric state which was the stimulus of the activity in the 
animal, bore a certain fixed relation in time to some other 
which was to follow, i. e., wind, rain or storm, was not in 
any proper sense the cause of it, but simply one of the 
stages in its development. For man to discover the true 
relation between one atmospheric condition, as indicated 
by the activity of the animal, and the succeeding atmos- 
pheric condition as expressed in the storm, was only a 
step farther in the process. This he did with more or 
less accuracy, and it has descended to us as the weather 
lore of animals. 

When the observations have been carefully made, the 
results are trustworthy; but we have reason to believe 
that our forefathers of weather fame were more fre- 
quently wide than careful observers of the events of 
nature. 

Dr. C. C. Abbott (Proc. Trenton Nat. Hist. Society, 
Feb. 13, 1883) showed that the autumnal habits of cer- 
tain animals that are supposed to be indicative of the 
character of the coming winter, and that have in conse- 
quence been made the basis of an extended weather lore, 
could not be depended upon. Dr. Abbott had kept a 
careful record, extending over twenty years, regarding 



ANIMAL WEATHER LORE 31 

the building of their winter homes by muskrats, the stor- 
ing of nuts by squirrels, and other habits of these mam- 
mals, and had found that the activities referred to bore 
no relation to the character of the coming winter. Of 
the belief that the opossum, before a severe winter, bur- 
rows deep into the ground, while in expectancy of a 
mild one, he occupies a hollow tree, he says : 

"This seems very reasonable, and would pass admir- 
ably as a weather sign but for one important circum- 
stance. While you may find one or more in a tree, your 
neighbor may find as many in the ground. I have 
known this to be the case more than once. Under these 
circumstances, meet your neighbor at the fence and com- 
pare notes. What about the winter?" Nevertheless, 
the supposed prescience of the opossum and his friends 
has been made the basis of much prophecy. 

"Cats have the reputation," says Dunwoody, "of being 
especially weather wise, an old notion which has given rise 
to a most extensive folk lore. It is almost universally 
believed that good weather may be expected when the 
cat washes herself, but bad when she licks her coat 
against the grain, or washes herself over her ears, or sits 
with her tail to the fire. As, too, the cat is supposed not 
only to have a knowledge of the state of the weather, 
but a certain share in the arrangement of it, it is consid- 
ered by sailors most unwise to provoke a cat. Hence 
they do not much like to have a cat on board at all, and 
when one happens to be more frisky than usual, they 
quote a saying that the cat has a gale of wind in her tail. 
A charm often resorted to for raising a storm is to throw 
a cat overboard ; but according to a Hungarian proverb, 
as a cat does not die in the water, its paws disturb the 



32 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

surface — hence the flaws on the surface of the water are 
called 'cat's paws.' In the same way, also, a large flurry 
in the water is called a 'cat's skin ;' and in some parts of 
England a popular name for the stormy northwest wind 
is the 'cat's nose." Besides sayings based upon the 
conditions mentioned above, there are many other cat- 
activities which are supposed to be portentous. "If the 
cat is basking in the sun in February it must go again to 
the stove in March" (German) , is based upon the truth 
already mentioned as the foundation of much weather 
wisdom, that the second month of the year is too early 
to expect a settled spring. 

That cats with their tails up, and hair apparently 
electrified, indicate an approaching wind, is a belief 
which is based upon sound physics (see page 127) ; as it 
is certain that a brisk wind sets up an electrical state in 
the atmosphere which might well show itself in such a 
substance as cat's fur, even beyond the actual limit of 
atmospheric movement, hence acting as a premonition 
of approaching wind. In the same way, that cats claw 
table legs, tree trunks, etc., before a storm, is but an 
allusion to their hyperaesthetic appreciation of the 
peculiar atmospheric conditions just preceding a violent 
change from fair weather. 

The other domestic animals, probably because they 
have been easy of observation, have come in for a large 
share of attention : 

"When the ass begins to bray 
Be sure we shall have rain that day. 
When the donkey blows his horn 
'Tis time to house your hay and corn," 
and, 



ANIMAL WEATHER LORE 33 

"Hark, I hear the asses bray, 
We shall have some rain to-day," 

might have been written by Theophrastus, and certainly 
agree well enough with other things written by that 
author. Sheep, according to this tradition, show even 
more precisely by their actions what is to follow than 
do their long-eared barnyard friends. Thus old sheep 
are said to eat greedily before a storm, and sparingly 
before a thaw; but when they leave high ground and 
bleat much in the evening and during the night, severe 
weather is expected. In winter when they feed down 
hill, a snow storm is looked for; when they feed up the 
burn, wet weather is near. 

From the earliest times birds have been considered 
among the most trustworthy of all animal prognosti- 
cates. It is plain to see why this is so, both from the 
conspicuousness of their position in the heavens and their 
supposed intimacy with the skyey influences. Hardly 
any bird known to man is left out of the catalogue : the 
domestic fowls, ducks and geese, pigeons, the swan, the 
crane, the stork, as well as the smaller birds, are all 
studied as portents. Perhaps of them all, the rook has 
received the most attention. In Scotland, there is cur- 
rent an analysis of his behavior which seems to lack 
nothing, unless it be the truth, though on that point I 
am ignorant. 

"The low flight of rooks indicates rain. If they feed 
fast and hurry over the ground in one direction, and in 
a compact body, a storm will soon follow. When they 
sit in rows on dykes and palings, wind is looked for; 
when going home to roost, if they fly high, the next day 
will be fair, and vice versa. If when flying high they 



34 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

dart down and wheel around in circles, wind is fore- 
shown. In autumn and winter, if, after feeding in the 
morning, they return to the rookery and hang about it, 
rain is to be expected." 

But the acme of credulity is reached in weather 
proverbs concerning the leech. This animal is a con- 
spicuous figure in the prognostications, although the 
smaller fish, by the frequency of their coming to the top 
of the water, are said to be modest competitors for 
honors. The prophetic instinct of the leech has been 
the subject of learned treatises, and at least two whole 
volumes have been written about him. One of these 
explains in full a wonderful instrument which the author 
and inventor, Dr. Merry weather, called the "tempest 
prognosticator," and for which he claimed wonderful 
things. Its success depended upon the supposed activity 
of the leech before a storm; and the instrument was so 
arranged that the little animal, by his contortions at such 
a time, was made to ring a bell, and thus give an alarm. 
The author states in his book that he could make a single 
leech ring the great bell of St. Paul's, and by so doing, 
allow time for preparations for the coming torrent, and 
thus be instrumental in preventing much discomfort and 
pecuniary loss. I do not know how successful the 
learned doctor was in introducing this invention to the 
public ; but if his success were at all commensurate with 
his faith in its efficacy, or his ingenuity in its construc- 
tion, he must have died wealthy. The exact symptom- 
ology of the leech as set down by him, is as follows : 

"Before high winds, it moves about with much celerity. 
Previous to slight rain or snow, it creeps to the top of 
the bottle, but soon sinks ; but if the rain or wind is likely 



ANIMAL WEATHER LORE 35 

to be of long duration, the leech remains a longer time 
at the surface. If thunder approaches, the leech starts 
about in an agitated and convulsive manner." 

Even the vegetable world has not escaped the attention 
of the weather prophet, and many plants undoubtedly 
do give evidence of the approach of stormy weather long 
before it actually takes place. The pink-eyed pimper- 
nell, or ploughman's weather glass, is better understood 
in some parts of England than the readings of elaborate 
instruments and is, perhaps, as trustworthy, besides pos- 
sessing the advantage of being in the fields where want- 
ed. Many of the commoner inanimate things of the 
household, like drawers, chairs, tables and doors, as we 
all very well know, react in peculiar ways to meteoro- 
logical changes and have been introduced in various 
ways by the weather poet. 

One of the most complete catalogues of such influences 
extant is the note — written in meter — by the renowned 
Dr. Jenner to a friend, expressive of regret that an 
anticipated hunting excursion would probably have to 
be given up: 

"The hollow winds begin to blow ; 
The clouds look black, the glass is low. 
The soot falls down, the spaniels sleep, 
And spiders from their cob-webs peep. 
Last night the sun went pale to bed, 
The moon in halo, hid its head ; 
The boding shepherd heaves a sigh 
To see a rainbow in the sky. 
The walks are damp, the ditches smell ; 
Closed is the pink-eyed pimpernell. 
Hark ! How the chairs and table crack ! 
Old Betty's joints are on the rack. 



36 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

Loud quack the ducks ; the peacocks cry : 
The distant hills are looking nigh. 
How restless are the snorting swine ; 
The busy flies disturb the kine ; 
The cricket too — how sharp he sings ! 
Puss on the hearth, with velvet paws, 
Sits, wiping o'er her whiskered jaws. 
Through the clear stream the fishes rise, 
And nimbly catch the incautious flies. 
The glowworms, numerous and bright, 
Illumed the dewy dell last night. 
At dusk the squatted toad was seen 
Hopping and crawling o'er the green. 
The whistling wind the dust obeys, 
And in the rapid eddy plays. 
The frog has changed her yellow vest, 
And in a russet coat is drest. 
Though June, the air is cold and still ; 
The blackbird's mellow voice is shrill. 
My dog, so altered in his taste, 
Leaves mutton bones, on grass to feast. 
And see yon rooks, how odd their flight ! 
They imitate the gliding kite, 
And seem precipitate to fall, 
As if they felt the piercing ball. 
'Twill surely rain, I see with sorrow ; 
Our jaunt must be put off to-morrow." 

These allusions, as the concluding lines indicate, have 
to do only with an approaching storm; though it is, I 
believe, noticeable that the whole class of animal and 
plant proverbs deal almost entirely with such predictions 
and those of the seasons. 

Vergil, although writing nearly twenty centuries ago, 
leaves little to be said upon the question of weather 



ANIMAL WEATHER LORE 37 

proverbs. With such a start, we can hardly wonder at 
the extent of weather lore : 

"Wet weather seldom hurts the most unwise ; 
So plain the signs, such prophets are the skies. 
The wary crane foresees it first and sails 
Above the storm, and leaves the lowly vales. 
The cow looks up, and from afar can find 
The change of heaven, and sniffs it in the wind. 
The swallow skims the river's watery face ; 
The frogs renew the croaks of their loquacious race ; 
The careful ant, her secret cell forsakes 
And drags her eggs along the narrow tracks. 
At either horn, the rainbow drinks the flood. 
Huge flocks of rising rooks forsake their food, 
And crying, seek the shelter of the wood. 
Besides the several sorts of wailing fowls, 
That swim the seas, or haunt the standing pools, 
The swans that sail along the silvery flood, 
And dive, with stretching necks to search for food, 
Then lave their backs with sprinkling dews in vain 
And stem the stream to meet the promised rain. 
The crow, with clamorous cries, the shower demands, 
And single, stalks along the desert sands. 
The nightly virgin, while her wheel she plies, 
Foresees the storm impending in the skies, 
When sparkling lamps, their sputt'ring light advance, 
And in their sockets, oily bubbles dance. 
Then after showers, 'tis easy to descry 
Returning suns and a serener sky. 
The stars shine smarter and the moon adorns 
As with unborrowed beams, her sharpened horns. 
The filmy gossamer now flits no more, 
Nor halcyons bask on the short sunny shore ; 
Their litter is not tossed by sows unclean ; 
But a blue, draughty mist descends upon the plain ; 
And owls, that mark the setting sun declare 



38 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

A starlight evening and a morning fair. 

Above the rest, the sun, who never lies, 

Foretells the change of weather in the skies ; 

For if he rise, unwillingly to his race, 

Clouds on his brow, and spots upon his face ; 

Or if through mist, he shoots his sullen beams 

Frugal of light in loose and struggling streams, 

Suspect a drizzling day .... 

If fiery red his gloomy globe descends 

High winds, and furious tempests he portends : 

But if his cheeks are swollen with livid blue, 

He bodes wet weather by his watery hue ; 

If dusky spots are varied on his brow, 

And streaked with red, a troubled color show, 

That shallow mixture shall at once declare 

Winds, rains and storms, and elements at war." 



CHAPTER IV 



WEATHER INFLUENCES IN LITERATURE 

What the effect of one meteorological condition may 
be upon another we care but little and must, in any 
event, leave their special study to the meteorologist. 
The effects of such conditions upon members of the 
lower animal kingdom, however, take on quite another 
type of interest, since we have, with the study of them, 
entered the realm of the mind. The relation between 
cause and effect is no longer, of a certainty, merely phy- 
sical, but is psychological with all which that implies. 
Yet paramount to our interest in the psychological 
problem of weather influences upon members of the 
lower animal kingdom comes that in the problem of those 
same influences upon man. It is, in fact, the only phase 
which has much more than a morbidly curious interest. 

(We are creatures of our environment, reflecting in our 
behavior, even to the slightest degree, the changes rung 
in by the weather-man, and the problem takes on an 
ethical significance. But is man influenced in his be- 
havior to any appreciable extent by the weather? On 
strictly a priori grounds, reasoning from pure analogy, 
we should be inclined to answer in the affirmative, for 
first, it is without doubt true that the lower animals, 
— our somewhat distant relatives, — are susceptible to 

39 



40 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

weather influences, as shown by weather lore; and sec- 
ond, it is equally true that mankind, as a race, is affected 
to a very marked degree by climate, which is, after all, 
nothing but prevailing weather. What is then a family 
trait, — considering the entire animal kingdom as a fam- 
ily, — we might expect to find in any single branch of the 
family, and what is true for a totality of causes is at least 
likely to be true for any single cause covered. But we 
recognize that this line of argument proves nothing. 
Proof, even if it be possible in a question of this sort, 
must be a posteriori. It is not enough to presume that 
it should be true. Two lines of procedure are open to 
us in the pursuit of the problem : First, that of finding 
out what our friends and others have to say regarding 
the influence of the weather upon themselves and others 
within the field of observation; and, second, a study of 
the actual behavior of large numbers of human beings 
under varying meteorological conditions. The first 
method is essentially literary and must depend for the 
most part upon citations from literature, which are sup- 
posed to express the author's feelings; the second is 
purely statistical, and must, in order to be approximately 
valid, include a sufficient number of data to eliminate 
the accidental error common to all inductive problems. 
To this latter phase of the problem of weather influences, 
this volume is principally devoted, although material is 
not lacking in literature for the discussion of the former. 
A writer in one of the British magazines has said : 
f "There are many persons who are simply victims of 
the weather. Atmospheric influences play upon them 
as the wind plays upon the strings of an Aeolian harp, 
with the difference that the harp never utters discord in 



WEATHER INFLUENCES IN LITERATURE 41 

reply. A leaden sky weighs upon them with a crushing 
weight, and suggests all manner of unpleasant anticipa- 
tion. Then the gloomy side of life comes out. The 
bitter sayings of friends are brought to mind. The old 
groundwork of forgotten quarrels is remembered; un- 
easy questions arise with regard to the future. One 
gets tired of life. A sort of indefinite dread is the 
general mental influence, a faint continuation of the 
superstitious fancies which mark the childhood of na- 
tions and men." 

Who has not, at times, felt this influence? In all the 
vigor of perfect health, it may hardly be recognized ; but 
when the vital forces are depleted by the exhausting 
effects of a long nervous or physical strain, the influ- 
ence of this phase of cosmical environment is sure to 
make itself known. Then comes those days when every- 
thing is sure to go wrong. How inconsiderate are our 
friends, when the east wind blows, and the skies are 
heavy! How dangerously doubtful seems to-day the 
venture which yesterday, in the bright sunlight, seemed 
certain of success ! 

General experience teaches most people that the body 
and the mind are both liable to be affected by the "skyey 
influences." Some, indeed, like Dr. Johnson, may affect 
to treat this with ridicule, and the strong and robust may 
scarcely be sensible of the changes which the state of the 
weather may effect in them, but the more sensitive and 
susceptible are fully alive to the facts, so much so, 
indeed, as to become in some measure, living barometers. 
Who has not, in some part of his life, at least, experi- 
enced the depressing effects of a dull, rainy day in his 
spirits? — or who has not, on the contrary, felt the exhil- 



42 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

aration of dry air and bright glowing sunshine? At 
times, even in good health, a state of mind comes over 
us in which everything appears dark and gloomy; in 
which little ills are magnified into terrible evils, and in 
which casual annoyances seem as if they were to be per- 
petual. All this may endure for a day, but to-morrow's 
sun rises bright and cheerful; a wonderful change has 
come over our spirits, — hope and joy have suddenly 
taken the place of our sorrows. How much is man thus 
a creature of circumstances and how prone is his mind 
thus to be unnecessarily agitated ! 

Certain temperaments are more liable to be affected 
by the weather than others. Invalids and all delicate 
persons are more "tremblingly alive" to its changes than 
are the robust and healthy. While one shivers from the 
northern breeze and can tell from his sensations, the 
moment he gets out of bed, from what quarter the wind 
blows, another, less alive to minute feelings, laughs at 
all such, and like the renowned Tarn o' Shanter, "never 
minds the storm a whistle." 

"I feel all wrought up, and fit for nothing, this kind of 
weather," is a statement we are all familiar with during 
the dry, windy spells to which our climate occasionally 
treats us; and we teachers are sure that during certain 
phases of the weather, our pupils (of course it cannot be 
ourselves) are too exasperating for endurance, while a 
change in the meteorological conditions brings with it a 
smoothness and tranquillity of spirit which form a 
marked contrast. That the weather has a pronounced 
effect upon physiological conditions, few afflicted with 
rheumatism or diseases of its nature would for an instant 
doubt. The fact was so well recognized in earlier times 



WEATHER INFLUENCES IN LITERATURE 43 

as to have worked itself into weather lore, and we have 
the proverbs : 

"When rheumatic people complain of more than ordinary pains 
in the joints, ib will rain." 

"If corns, wounds, and sores itch and ache more than usual, 
rain is sure to fall shortly," 

and, 

"A coming storm, yon shooting corns presage, 
And aches will throb, your hollow tooth will rage." 

That the effects are quite so marked upon mental 
states might be questioned, but that it has an effect of 
considerable importance is recognized, even by the mat- 
ter-of-fact business men of our large mercantile con- 
cerns. For instance, during London fogs, and on days 
when the weather is particularly depressing, in the Bank 
of England, certain sets of books, an error in which would 
be cumulative and produce disastrous results further on, 
are locked up, and the clerks set at tasks less intricate 
and important in character. Experience has taught 
those in charge that the percentage of error increases 
manifold during such climatic conditions, and that it is 
money in pocket to yield to them. The same necessity 
for cessation of certain lines of work during bad "spells 
of weather," is recognized by the larger banking institu- 
tions in New York and the other eastern cities, and a 
rotation of work in conformity to them is rigidly ob- 
served. It has been the universal reply, too, by the 
superintendents of prisons and asylums for the insane, 
to whom I have appealed for their opinion upon the 
subject, that the persons in their charge varied so 
markedly with the meteorological conditions that no man 



44 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

who ever had their experience could for a moment doubt 
that the relation between weather and emotional states 
was any other than cause and eff ect. When asked, 
however, what definite conditions of the weather tended 
to be most productive of emotional abnormalities, no 
satisfactory answer could be made, and we were as much 
at sea as ever. 

A principal of one of the large boarding-schools for 
boys, a Quaker school in Eastern New York, made some 
very interesting statements corroborative of the general 
belief I have already stated. They were given me by a 
friend, who was for some years an instructor in the 
school just mentioned. He said the principal would 
occasionally come to him, with the assurance of one who 
knows, and caution him to look out for the boys, and 
particularly certain boys whom he called by name, say- 
ing, "There is likely to be trouble to-day." This had 
continued for some time, and every warning had proved 
timely, when the instructor's curiosity with regard to the 
principal's seeming prescience led him to appeal to his 
superior for the secret. The answer was that a careful 
observation for long years had proved to him that cer- 
tain definite conditions of the weather, as revealed to 
him by the barometer of a gouty foot, brought with 
them, or were followed by a tendency to unruliness on 
the part of the boys. He also stated that his belief that 
the weather produced these marked effects upon his 
pupils had been intensified of late, since he had been 
suffering from a severe attack of insomnia, during which 
he had spent many nights walking the long corridors of 
the dormitories. Here, on those nights which his pre- 
vious experience had led him to believe would be fol- 



WEATHER INFLUENCES IN LITERATURE 45 

lowed by emotional abnormalities, he would hear the 
boys, from whom he was separated only by badly fitting 
doors with open transoms above them, tossing upon their 
beds in imperfect sleep, or moaning and talking in a 
manner quite unusual to them on nights when the 
weather was different. 

The head of a factory employing 3,000 workmen has 
said: "We reckon that a disagreeable day yields about 
ten per cent, less work than a delightful day, and we thus 
have to count this as a factor in our profit and loss ac- 
count." 

Furthermore, certain writers, like Gilbert White, 
Thoreau, Richard Jeffries and others, who, within the 
circle of the horizon seen from their own windows, have 
noted and preserved every prognostic, every breath of 
change, every modification of the weather, its relation to 
their own habits and health of their own four-footed live 
creatures, to the coming and going and mating and nest- 
ing of the birds, the blossoming of flowers and the fruit 
and seed time of the harvest, have discovered the touch 
of nature that makes the whole world kin, and have gone 
far to secure immortality for themselves. Thus, Dor- 
othy Wordsworth's journal, to which the poet turned as 
to this commonplace book, was chiefly a chronicle of the 
weather. "Tremendous wind," we find. "The snow blew 
from Helvellyn horizontally like a snake. We came in 
late. He had been surprised and terrified by a sudden 
rushing of the winds, which seemed to bring earth and 
sky and lake together as if the whole were going to 
enclose him," and on and on for pages. 

So marked has been the confessed influence of the 
sun upon men of literary genius, that we might almost 



46 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

agree with Lombroso that men of genius, in common 
with the vegetable world, need a surfeit of its influence 
for full fruition. Shelley loved to expose himself to its 
intensest ardor, and many of his best verses were penned 
upon the roof of his house near Leghorn, entirely un- 
screened from the pelting rays of the hottest of Italian 
suns. Byron was no less a sun-worshiper. 

"I am always more religious on a sunshiny day," he 
wrote, "as if there were some association between our 
internal approach to greater light and purity, and the 
kindler of this dark lantern of our external existence." 
Charles Lamb, too, that inveterate lover of London with 
all its smoke and fogs, needed only a taste of something 
better to be filled with enthusiasm. On the occasion of 
his one brief journey to France and its southern skies, 
he cried out, "I hold with the Persian," and nothing less 
than an August noon with a sweltering sky overhead 
could meet his craving. At such a time it was that he 
felt himself immortal, "as strong again, as valiant again, 
as wise again, and a great deal taller." Benvenuto 
Cellini has left us a touching account of his yearning 
after the sun during a period of imprisonment. At 
length his consuming wish brought about its own fulfill- 
ment, for in a vision he was led forth into the street from 
his dark lair by a beautiful youth and saw the sunlight 
in the wall above his head, and then, in answer to his 
prayer, the very sun itself. Dazzled, he closed his eyes ; 
but repenting, he opened them again, and gazing stead- 
fastly upon it, exclaimed, "Oh, my sun, for which I have 
passionately yearned ! Albeit yon rays may blind me, I 
do not wish to look upon anything but this." Lady 
Mary Wortley Montague, a woman for whom Words- 



WEATHER INFLUENCES IN LITERATURE 47 

worth expressed the highest admiration, seems to have 
been possessed of a passion hardly less intense. "For 
my own part," she exclaims, "who am more passionately 
fond of Phoebus than ever Clymene was, I have some 
thought of moving to Africa that I may feel him before 
I die, which I shall do as surely as your olive trees, if I 
have much longer to sigh for his absence." And the 
poet, Moore, who could stretch his imagination no fur- 
ther than to wish for all mankind no joy but this : 

"To sit in sunshine calm and sweet, 
It marks a world too exquisite 
For man to leave it for the gloom, 
The deep cold shadow of the tomb." 

Rousseau, too, like Shelley, loved to expose his bare 
head to the sun's fiercest rays, even in the hottest weath- 
er, declaring that it did him good. Beethoven, if he 
could not get enough of the sun in them, would change 
his lodgings. But what Goethe has called the sun thirst 
has never been felt by any more fully than by Walt 
Whitman. "I love the splendid, silent sun," he says. 
And the assertion was no mere figure of speech, for 
much of his Leaves of Grass was written while prone 
upon the white sands of a Long Island beach, with such 
a sun as only seems to blaze there. He would, as he 
naively confides to his readers, "drink the sun's rays in 
at every pore." Southey, also, strangely foreshadows 
the cravings of our poet philosopher, when he writes: 
"I do not know anything more delightful than to lie on 
the beach in the sun, and watch the rising waves, while 
a thousand vague ideas pass over the mind, like the sum- 
mer clouds over the water." Elsewhere he declares 



48 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

himself "a greenhouse plant, pining for want of sun," 
and in acknowledging his eager desire for the consulship 
at Cintra, a place where the sun is so powerful as to 
frequently cause blindness, he writes : 

"In truth, I have been too long abroad to be contented 
with England. I miss the sun in heaven, having been 
upon a short allowance of sunbeams for the last ten 
days ; and if the nervous fluid be the galvanic fluid, and 
the galvanic fluid the electric fluid, and the electric fluid 
condensed light, zounds ! what an effect must these vile, 
dark, rainy clouds have upon a poor, nervous fellow like 
me, whose brain has been in a state of high illumination 
for the last fifteen months." 

Yet as ardent an admirer of the sun god as was 
Southey, Shakespeare, if we may judge by the number 
of his weather allusions, felt even more strongly the 
"skyey influences" than has any other great author. His 
feeling was, however, rather heliophobic than the reverse. 
Shakespeare seemed firmly of the belief that the sun, 
and its heat, were sure and certain stimulators of the 
angry passions, a belief, let me say, which studies dis- 
cussed later in this volume seem fully to corroborate. 

In the third part of Henry VI. he makes King Ed- 
ward, who is trying to arouse his fellows to attack 
Warwick, say: 

"The sun shines hot ; and if we use delay 
Cold biting winter mars our hoped for May," 
and again, 

"The day grows wondrous hot — some airy devil hovers in the sky." 
And in another play (Hamlet) : 

"When in your motions you are hot and dry, 
As makes your bouts more violent." 



WEATHER INFLUENCES IN LITERATURE 49 

Each of the following quotations serves to emphasize 
the impression: 

"But look you pray, all you that kiss my lady peace at home, 
that our armies join not in a hot day." [2 Henry IV. 1. 2.] 

"If the day be hot, and I brandish anything but a bottle, I 
would I might never spit white again." [Ibid.] 

"If there come a hot June, and their civil buffeting hold, we 
shall buy maidenheads." [1 Henry IV. 11. 4. 397.] 

"And in the hottest day prognostication proclaims, shall he be 
set against a brick wall." [Winter's Tale, IV. 4. 417.] 

Yet his most striking example of sun fear is in Romeo 
and Juliet, the entire plot of which he hinges upon the 
influence of a hot day. The fatal brawl in which Tybalt 
is slain is precipitated by the effect of the temperature 
upon the principal actors. Benvolio realized that pos- 
sibility, and in attempt to restrain his lively companion, 
said: 

"I pray thee, good Mercutio, let's retire : 
The day is hot, the Capulets abroad, 
And if we meet, we shall not 'scape a brawl, 
For now, these hot days, is the mad blood stirring." 

But his warning was disregarded. As a result, when 
the Montagues and the Capulets met, they fought. 
Mercutio lost his life; Romeo was banished for slaying 
Tybalt; Juliet was forced to take the potion to avoid a 
hateful marriage with Paris during her lover's absence, 
and was discovered, apparently dead, by Romeo, who 
killed himself; and Juliet awakening, completed the 
tragedy, "falling dead on the body of her lover." Ter- 
rible results, these, from the effects of one hot day ! 

That Shakespeare held the south wind in strange dis- 
repute, is shown by the following, though in this he 



50 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

varied from his contemporaries, if we may believe the 
weather lore of his time : 

"All the contagions of the south light on you." [Coriolanus, 
I.8.] 

"The south fog rot thee." 

"Like foggy south, puffing with wind and rain." 

It is possible that in Shakespeare's time, fens and 
marshes were much more abundant in the south of Eng- 
land than they are now, and that winds from that direc- 
tion may have been laden with malarial and other nox- 
ious germs, making them particularly dangerous. In 
other respects, however, we cannot but pronounce the 
epithets which Shakespeare applies to the south wind 
particularly libelous. Moreover, Shakespeare had no 
love for the winter : 

"You and you are true together 
As the winter to foul weather," 

he says in As You Like It, V. 7. 

Beside these undoubted reflections of the great au- 
thor's unborrowed feelings of weather influence, he has 
also used from time to time the current lore of the 
period. We know that the cry of the owl was held as 
an omen or a sign of stormy weather, and we read 
(Macbeth, II. 5) : 

"The obscene bird 
Clamoured the livelong night." 

The notion of the unwholesomeness of the night air was 
prevalent, and we find him saying (Julius Caesar, 
III. 3) : 

"To dare the vile contagion of the night 
And tempt the rheuming and unpurged air." 



WEATHER INFLUENCES IN LITERATURE 51 

And again, the hush that precedes the storm is noted : 

"But as we often see against some storm 
A silence in the heavens, the rack stand still, 
The bold winds speechless and the owl below 
As hush as death — anon the dreadful thunder 
Doth rend the region." [Hamlet, II. 7.] 

The attention of mankind in the early history of the 
world naturally directed itself to the science of meteor- 
ology. The ablest of ancient philosophers advocated 
the doctrine of atmospheric astrology. The most gen- 
eral principle observed was the position of the sun 
toward the planets. It caused the weather to be of the 
nature of the planet it was in conjunction with or par- 
allel to at the particular period of time. After the con- 
junction the next most powerful influence upon the 
matter was supposed to be the period when the sun was 
in an opposition aspect to an evil planet. Of this astro- 
logical idea, Shakespeare makes peculiar use by causing 
one aspect of the heaven to be in harmony with the 
mental condition or fortunes of his characters. Thus 
we find: 

"Stars with trains of fire and dews of blood, 
Disasters in the sun ; and the moist star, 
Upon whose influence Neptune's empire stands 
Was sick almost to doomsday with eclipse," 

[Hamlet, 1. 1. 117.] 



And, 



"No natural exhalation in the sky, 
No scope of nature, no distempered day, 
No common wind, no customed event ; 
But they will pluck away his natural cause 
And call them meteors, prodigies and signs 



52 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

Abortives, presages and tongues of heaven 
Plainly denouncing vengeance upon John." 

[Hamlet, III. 4.] 
Again, 

"But when the planets 
In evil mixture to disorder wander, 
What plagues and what portents ! what mutiny ! 
What raging of the sea ! shaking of earth ! 
Commotion in the winds ! fights, changes, horrors, 
Divert and crack, rend and deracinate 
The unity and married calm of states 
Quite from their fixture." 

[Troilus and Cressida, I. 3. 94.] 
"Dazzle mine eyes, or do I see three suns ? 
Three glorious suns, each one a perfect sun ; 
Not separated with the racking clouds, 
But severed in a pale clear shining sky — 
In this the heaven figures some event." 

[3 Henry VI. % 1.] 
"The sun sets weeping in the lowly west, 
Witnessing storms to come, woe and unrest." 

[Richard II. II. 4.] 

Ptolemy says : "If the sun have a wavering or fiery 
orb, or seems to emit or attract red rays, or if he be 
accompanied in any one part of the clouds called par- 
helia, or other reddish clouds of extended figure in the 
form of long rays, he then portends violent winds, 
chiefly liable to arrive from those parts in which the said 
phenomena may have shown themselves." Shakespeare 
was not less keenly observant, as is shown by the follow- 
ing: 

"King. How bloodily the sun begins to peer 

Above yon brisky hills ! the day looks pale 
At his distemperature. 



WEATHER INFLUENCES IN LITERATURE 53 

Prince. The southern wind 

As doth the blushing, discontented sun 
From out the firey portal of the east, 
When he perceives the envious clouds are bent 
To dim his glory, and to stain the tract 
Of his bright passage to the Occident." 

[Richard II. 3. 6.] 

"How bloodily the sun begins to peer, 
Above yon brisky hill ! The day looks pale 
At his distemperature. 

The southern wind 
Doth play the trumpet to his purposes, 
And by the hollow whistlings in the heavens 
Foretells a tempest and a blust'ring day." 

[Henry IV. Pt. I, V. 1.] 

"The skies look grimly, 
And threaten present blusters ; 
The heavens with that we have in hand are angry, 
And frown upon's." 

[Winter's Tale, III. 3.] 

He makes the broken-hearted Elizabeth say: 

"All springs reduce their currents to mine eyes, 
That I, being governed by the watery moon 
May send forth plenteous tears to drown the world." 

[Richard III. II. 2. 67.] 

In A Midsummer Night's Dream, III, 1, 203, Titania 
says: 

"The moon, methinks, looks with a watery eye." 

It is true that in King Lear, Shakespeare makes Ed- 
mund ridicule the doctrine of astrological and meteor- 
ological necessity as follows : 

"This is excellent foppery of the world that, when we are sick 
in fortune — often the surfeit of our own behavior — we make the 



54 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

guilty of our disasters the sun, the moon and the stars ; as if we 
were villains by necessity, fools by heavenly compulsion ; knaves, 
thieves and treachers by spherical predominance ; drunkards, liars, 
and adulterers by an enforced obedience of planetary influence." 

[King Lear, I. 2. 126.] 

It is not probable, however, that Shakespeare would 
take such a character as Edmund as a mouthpiece for 
his own sentiments ; and we may readily believe from his 
other allusions to the subject that the author put more 
credence in such influences than the words might signify. 

"With Wordsworth and Tennyson began what might 
be called the weather cult : that is, the entire impenetra- 
tion of the theme and the motive with the moods of the 
atmosphere. Dickens was perhaps the first of the mod- 
ern writers to press fog and rain into his action as char- 
acters, powerful as those of flesh and blood ; but this plan 
has been carried to its limit in certain books of Victor 
Hugo's, Pierre Loti's, Black's, and Craddock's. Mau- 
passant, although generally confining himself to pure 
dramatic motive, has, in one of his short stories, giving 
an account of a timid lad, left alone all winter in a hut 
at the top of Gemini Pass in Switzerland, described the 
desolation of a world of snow and the freezing cold, 
with the most striking effect. In fact, all literature 
from the Oedipus Colloneus where the protagonist is 
summoned by the thunder to meet the god, and the 
Odyssey ', where Ulysses is forced to contend with the 
wind, seas and waves, down to the lastest new novel, is 
more or less colored by the old indestructible instinct, 
vitalizing and animating earth and fire and water, seeing 
spirits frown in the clouds and smile in the sunshine." 
(E. Q. Kirke, Atlantic Monthly, Vol. 76.) 



CHAPTER V 



THE EMPIRICAL PROBLEM 

The problem of human conduct, so far as the indi- 
vidual is concerned, is perhaps no nearer a solution to- 
day than it was in the time of the Sophists. Certainly 
no one has been able to formulate a law from which can 
be predicted what A and B and C will do, under given 
conditions, for each is sure to react to them in his own 
peculiar manner ; still it is safe to say that the conditions 
are becoming more and more subjects of study. Yet, 
however hopeless may be the enigma of the conduct of 
the individual, that of the mass does not present quite so 
many difficulties. In human nature there are enough 
characteristics common to all, to form a working basis; 
and certain laws of conduct may be formulated for a 
people, even though they lose their validity when applied 
to the individual. So-called "Racial Traits" are but the 
observed effects of such laws, and are generally based 
upon the influence of some condition of the environment, 
not infrequently the climate upon the people. The fact 
that they are not true for every individual does not in- 
validate them for the race, nor lessen their weight in the 
prediction of the conduct of the mass under given con- 
ditions. 

Problems in the ethics of the mass are, however, by 

55 



56 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

their peculiarities, limited in number. Only those may- 
be studied which furnish adequate data of conduct, and 
in which the condition that is supposed to influence 
behavior is common to all, if the effects of changes in 
the condition are to be noted. The influence of bad 
breakfasts upon the conduct of a people, however potent 
an ethical factor they may be, could not well form the 
basis of a statistical study, for the reason that we have 
no means of knowing how many people, on a given day, 
were suffering from them. On a morning when A's 
emotional equilibrium had been ruffled by poor coffee, 
B's was calm in the enjoyment of a cup of the most 
savory quality, and with the accidental relations which 
bad breakfasts bear to one another in point of time, no 
regular fluctuations in the occurrence of crime can be 
attributed to them. Among the problems which can be 
considered are those of an economic nature, for hard 
times affect all in a community either directly or indi- 
rectly, and these problems have received considerable 
attention. The influence of periods of financial depres- 
sion upon the prevalence of suicide and certain other 
crimes is recognized, and the student of social statistics 
can predict with a reasonable degree of accuracy the 
effect of such periods upon the people, as shown by the 
population of our penal institutions. But aside from 
widespread economic influences and occasional waves of 
social or religious enthusiasm, the conditions which can 
be said to influence conduct, are for the most part 
peculiar to the individual or to a limited number. The 
one marked exception to this is the weather. 

For any given community of limited area, a change 
in weather conditions means a change in the environment 



THE EMPIRICAL PROBLEM 57 

for every inhabitant. If this change in the environment 
tends to influence conduct, and any statistics of conduct 
are kept, their study in connection with the records of 
the weather would disclose the fact. It is just this 
problem with which our study deals. It is an attempt, 
by empirical methods, to discover the influence of the 
weather upon human behavior. It has nothing to do 
with the permanent or racial effect of prevailing meteor- 
ological conditions, but with the immediate and tempo- 
rary effect of definite fluctuations of those conditions. 
In other words, not of climate, but of weather. 

That certain phases of the weather have a marked 
effect upon the emotional states of many people cannot 
for a moment be doubted. As has been shown, fiction 
bases many of its tragic climaxes upon such a belief, and 
not a few of the world's greatest thinkers have left a 
record of such recognized effects upon their own mental 
states. "Weather Wisdom" is based upon such an 
influence upon the members of the lower animal king- 
dom. The newspapers not infrequently touch upon it 
in attempting to account for an epidemic of suicide or 
some other crime, and the literature of insanity is full of 
allusions to it. School teachers, almost without excep- 
tion, and all those who are in charge of individuals in 
great numbers — as wardens of prisons — are firm believ- 
ers in such an influence. Yet most of us do not need 
the evidence of others to be convinced of its existence; 
we feel it and make it the scapegoat for all sorts of sins 
of omission and commission when no other seems con- 
veniently near. The purpose of this paper, then, is not 
so much to demonstrate that such an influence is, as what 
it is, both qualitatively and quantitatively. 



58 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

The method followed is purely an inductive one and 
consists of a comparison of the average daily occurrence 
of certain recorded abnormalities of conduct, with their 
occurrence under definite meteorological conditions. 
The data of conduct considered were mostly taken from 
the records of the New York City Coroner, Chief of 
Police, and Superintendent of Schools, and consisted of 
the daily record of suicides, both successful and attempt- 
ed, of arrests for assault and battery and drunkenness, 
and of deportment in the City Penitentiary and certain 
of the public schools ; in all, over 600,000 separate occur- 
rences, covering a period of ten years. The meteor- 
ological data for comparison were taken from the records 
of the New York, and Denver, Colorado, stations of the 
United States Weather Bureau, and comprise the mean 
temperature, barometer and humidity, the total move- 
ment of the wind, the character of day, and the precipi- 
tation for each day of the period covered by the data of 
conduct. 

Given, then, facts bearing upon the deportment of 
the people of a great city for every day for so long a 
period of time, and exact meteorological condition for 
each day, by means of a somewhat laborious process of 
tabulation, it is possible to determine with exactness the 
weather conditions under which deportment is at its best 
or worst. In the tabulation, the average daily occur- 
rence for all the days falling under a given meteor- 
ological condition was compared with the average daily 
occurrences for the whole period studied and an excess or 
deficiency for definite weather conditions noted. This 
excess or deficiency was ascribed to weather influences. 
The right to do this might at first thought be questioned; 



THE EMPIRICAL PROBLEM 59 

but a brief consideration will, I believe, show its validity. 
Let us see: We find marked fluctuations in the daily 
occurrence of immoral acts in a given community, and 
must believe these fluctuations to be the effects of some 
cause or causes, since the time is past when the scientific 
mind can relegate them to the category of chance. The 
community is large, and the immoral acts are distributed 
throughout its length and breadth, so in searching for 
possible causes, all those which are narrowly local, in 
affecting but a few individuals, fail to meet the require- 
ments. A's bad breakfast and B's financial failure and 
C's love affair — then, though all potent in determining 
the behavior of these individuals on given days, bear but 
accidental relation to one another in point of time, and 
in considering 1,500,000 A's and B's and C's for a 
series of years would fail to be cumulative in effect. 
There is,, in fact, but one condition in the environment 
which changes simultaneously for all the individuals con- 
sidered, and that is the weather. 

On a priori grounds, then, we might expect some defi- 
nite relation between fluctuations in the weather curve, 
and that of the occurrence of crime ; at least such a thing 
would be not unreasonable. Yet the onus probendi 
must still rest upon the a posteriori method. This we 
have followed, with the result that a fixed relation is 
found to exist between the prevalence of certain weather 
states and an increase in the occurrence of crime, which 
can be considered hardly other than causal. Yet we 
must define a little more fully the sense in which the 
weather can be considered the cause of crime. It is not 
probable that once in ten thousand times is the weather 
the immediate and exciting cause of any of the misde- 



60 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

meanors we are considering. We cannot for a moment 
suppose that a low state of barometer ever drove a man 
to suicide, though we shall see that suicide is three times 
as prevalent during conditions of low barometer as 
during high. In all probability every man whose arrest 
for assault we are to consider had what seemed to him 
at the time an all-sufficient excuse for the deed which 
brought him trouble, and the state of the weather was 
not in any sense a motive. The question is this : Would 
the provocation which brought about so violent and dis- 
astrous a motor reaction under one condition of weather, 
have produced the same under another? In other words, 
are some meteorological conditions productive of emo- 
tional states during which an impulse to do an immoral 
act is less likely to be inhibited than during another? 
We believe the facts stated in this volume prove this to be 
the case ; but even then we must suppose the direct effect 
of the weather to be physiological and only through 
influencing the metabolism of the body, psychological. 
The relation between body and mind and the inter- 
action of the one upon the other is known to be of such 
a nature that, given a physiological change, the mental 
change is sure to follow and the nexus is in every sense 
causal. For whatever fixed relations we find then be- 
tween certain weather states and an increase in crime, 
we must suppose various and varied provocations peculiar 
to each individual misdeed and accidental to the weather 
problem, together with prevailing meteorological condi- 
tions which so affect the body that emotional states are 
produced during which such provocations are likely to 
be yielded to. In stating these relations, which we have 
perhaps a logical right to ascribe to "weather effects/' I 



THE EMPIRICAL PROBLEM 61 

would call attention to the fact that averages in daily 
occurrence are in every case considered, so the fact that 
for some of the meteorological conditions there were 
many more days than for others, and consequently more 
crimes, does not in any way invalidate the result. Those 
conditions, however, which occurred so seldom that the 
probable error from causes accidental to the problem are 
equal to the indicated influence, are omitted. 

The classes of empirical data studied, together with 
the number of each and the way in which they were 
obtained, are as follows : 

I. Registration in certain of the public schools of 
New York for the years 1895-96, 118,860. 

In this and the other classes of data which have to do 
with the New York schools the primary departments 
only were studied for three of the largest schools of the 
city, viz., Public School No. 93, corner of Amsterdam 
Avenue and 93d Street; Public School No. 43, corner of 
Amsterdam Avenue and 129th Street; and Public 
School No. 10, corner of 7th Avenue and 117th Street. 
The Primary Departments were studied first, with the 
intention of similarly considering the Boys' and Girls' 
Grammar Schools separately, for the purpose of making 
a comparison of the meteorological effects upon pupils 
of different ages, and especially upon the two sexes at 
the period of adolescence. Inability to procure the data 
desired without an immense amount of time devoted to 
a study of the records makes it impossible to include such 
a comparison in the present paper. 

By the term "registration" is meant expected attend- 
ance. The school registers placed at my disposal through 
the kindness of Superintendent Jasper, of the New 



62 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

York public schools, show what is termed the "Perma- 
nent Register" and also the "Temporary Register." In 
the former are included the names of all the pupils who 
have been registered in a given grade for the entire term. 
In the latter are included only the names of those who 
are for the day in regular standing in the grade, and 
expected to be present. The latter were taken as rep- 
resenting this class of data. The figures given indicate 
the number of pupils who were registered for a single 
day's attendance in the grades studied. I shall call, in 
succeeding discussions, the school attendance of a single 
pupil for a single day, one pupil-day. 

II. Attendance in the same schools for the years 
1895-96, 108,020. 

The data were obtained from the records already 
referred to, and the number indicates the number of 
pupil-days recorded for the exact conditions studied 
under registration. 

III. Deportment in the same schools for the years 
1895-96, 14,083. Under this head are tabulated for the 
years studied the number of pupil-days on which marks 
for imperfect deportments were given. The pupils are 
marked, when any record for deportment is kept, on a 
scale of ten, and any mark below ten is considered im- 
perfect. It might at first seem that there would be some 
value in considering the various marks between ten and 
the lowest given, as indicating misdemeanors more or 
less grave ; but upon noting certain individual peculiari- 
ties in the marking, it was decided that no sufficiently 
exact criterion could be had, and all not perfect were 
bunched as imperfect. For instance, some teachers never 
gave a mark lower than nine, while others invariably 



THE EMPIRICAL PROBLEM 63 

indicated imperfect deportment by marks from five to 
eight. As it cannot readily be supposed that all the 
pupils under the second teacher were so much worse than 
any under the first, we must conclude that the differ- 
ences were in the method of marking, hence an introduc- 
tion of error if used for exact purposes of comparison. 

It might be added, in connection with our statements 
of data having to do with the New York public schools, 
that much time was spent in an ineffectual attempt to 
find records indicating the daily marking in the schools 
as showing the perfection of class work. No such rec- 
ords are required in the public schools of the city, and in 
a long series of inquiries not a single teacher was found 
who had imposed upon herself the task of keeping them. 
This necessitates the omission from this study of an 
interesting phase of the problem, which I hope some 
time to supply from the records of some of the older 
private institutions, which a diligent search may unearth. 
The data under classes XV. and XVI. have to do with 
the effect of meteorological conditions upon the ability 
to do mental work, and may in part take the place of the 
class here missing. 

IV. Deportment in the public schools of Denver, 
Colo., for the years 1882-96. 

In the study of the public schools of Denver, Colo., 
made one year previous to the studies in New York City, 
the records for the fourteen years from 1882 to 1896 
were made use of. 

No record of daily deportment was kept for any part 
of that time, the only thing throwing any light upon the 
question being a record of corporal punishments admin- 
istered. This record was in the form of notes written in 



64 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

compliance with a requirement of the school board to 
Superintendent Gove, stating the names of the pupils to 
whom corporal punishment had been administered, and 
for what. Only those notes were used as data which 
stated the exact date of the misdemeanor, and not that 
of the punishment — the important thing from our point 
of view — and many notes had to be discarded because of 
uncertainty on that point. No attempt was made at 
any classification of the misdemeanors recorded — so 
varied were they in their character — nor was the tabula- 
tion for the two sexes kept separate. 

V. "Assault and battery" for the City of New York 
for the years 1891-97: Male, 36,627; female, 3,134. 

These figures represent the total number of arrests 
for this crime for those years. They were taken from 
the records in the wonderfully complete archives of the 
Police Department of the city. The records for the 
two sexes were considered separately for purposes of 
comparison. 

VI. Murders for the city of Denver, Colo., for the 
years 1884-96, 184. 

These data were taken from the files of the daily pa- 
pers of the city. A record of assaults, such as is made 
use of in the study for New York City, would have 
given us many more data of a class indicative of an emo- 
tional state analogous, perhaps, to the homicidal; but it 
seemed probable that the newspaper record was not 
complete for this class of crimes, so the record of mur- 
der was taken as being trustworthy and exact. 

VII. Discipline in the New York City Penitentiary 
for the years 1891-97, 3,981. 

The record of dark-room punishments was made use 



THE EMPIRICAL PROBLEM 65 

of, it being the only record of deportment permanently- 
kept at this institution. Each convict's chance for com- 
mutation of sentence depends upon the freedom of his 
record from bad marks, and by looking over each indi- 
vidual's record the data were collected. Care was also 
taken to make certain that the misdemeanor occurred 
upon the same day as the recorded punishment. 

VIII. Arrests for insanity for the City of New 
York for the years 1891-97: Male 2,467; female, 1,097. 
These data were taken from the records at the Central 
Police Station, and represent the entire number of each 
sex who were arrested upon the streets by the police of 
the city, or were taken from their homes, mentally un- 
balanced. In most cases they were initial attacks of 
insanity, or, at any rate, the beginning of a recurrent 
period. 

I have visited most of the asylums in the vicinity of 
New York City in the hope that I might secure some 
record of discipline or restraint throwing light upon the 
daily deportment of the inmates, but as yet unsuccess- 
fully. It may be that some future search will be produc- 
tive of more results, and that this phase of the problem 
may be completed. 

IX. Persons receiving treatment in the out-patient 
department of the Roosevelt Hospital, New York City, 
for the years 1893 and 1894, 75,486. 

This study was undertaken with the hope of throwing 
some light upon the question of the influence of meteor- 
ological conditions upon health. 

X. Members of the New York police force who were 
off duty, supposedly for sickness, for the years 1891 to 
1895, inclusive; single day's absence, 191,137. 



66 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

The general aim of this study was the same as the last. 

XI. Deaths for the city of New York for the years 
1886-87, 74,793. 

This includes deaths from all causes. The data were 
taken from the books of the Department of Public 
Health. The years 1886-87 were used, not that they 
were any more interesting than other years, but because 
they were the last for which records were kept in such a 
way that the exact date of death could be determined 
without some doubt. Beginning with 1888, the record 
of issuance of burial permits was the only one kept, and 
as these were sometimes issued on the day of death, but 
just as frequently on some following day, these latter 
records would not have been sufficiently exact for our 
purpose. 

XII. Suicides for the city of New York for the 
years 1882-87, 2,946. 

These data were collected from two sources, viz., the 
records of the Coroner and those of the Police Depart- 
ment. The record of successful suicides came from 
the former source, and are included in the death records ; 
but since for our purposes an unsuccessful attempt was 
as valid a datum as the successful, indicating, as it does, 
suicidal intent, they were included in this study. The 
police record was the source of our information on this 
subject, since suicide is considered a felony. 

XIII. Suicides for the city of Denver, Colorado, 
for the years 1884-97, 260. 

These data were taken from the voluminous scrap- 
books of newspaper clippings kept by the chief of the 
detective force of Denver. The city keeps no official 
register of crime, but the officer mentioned has kept a 



THE EMPIRICAL PROBLEM 67 

most complete one, clipped from the columns of the 
daily papers, which, through his kindness, was placed at 
my disposal. The data include both suicides and unsuc- 
cessful attempts. 

XIV. Arrests for drunkenness for the city of New 
York for the years 1893-94-95; males, 44,495. 

XV. Clerical errors discovered in the records of 
certain of the national banks of the city of New York 
for the years 1896-97, 3,698. 

These data were taken from books known as "Correc- 
tion of Errors," kindly loaned by some of the largest 
national banks in the city, among them, in fact, the 
largest bank in the country. These books show the data 
and the magnitude of all errors made by the employees 
of the bank, together with the date of their discovery 
and correction. The date of occurrence was, of course, 
the important item for our study. 

XVI. A study in discrimination carried on in the 
Psychological Laboratory of Columbia University, 50. 

Since all the conclusions to follow are based upon 
what I have called "expectancy," and an interpretation 
of the tables presupposes a full understanding of this 
term, I shall now, at some length, explain its computa- 
tion and application. 

The first process in its construction was carried on at 
the New York office of the U. S. Weather Bureau 
(Denver office for the Denver study) . There, in a spe- 
cially-ruled blank-book, were copied the mean Barome- 
ter, Temperature, and Humidity, the Total Movement 
of the Wind, the character of the Day, and Precipitation 
for every day of all the years for which any of the data 
of the studies were collected. For New York these 



68 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

years were 1886-87 and 1891-97, inclusive, besides the 
limited periods in the years 1898 and 1899 made use of 
in studying the class of data designated as XVI. 

For Denver, the years so studied were those from 
1883 to 1896, inclusive. Separate "expectancy curves" 
were constructed, by the method I am about to explain, 
for the period 1886-87, the period 1891-97, the school 
months of the calendar year 1895-96, and for Denver. 

Since these curves were all constructed in the same 
manner, a description of the process for one will answer 
for all the others, so I will explain those only for the 
1891-97 period. 

First. The expectancy curve for temperature. 

By a process of tabulation, which was practically but 
a simplified method of counting, it was ascertained that 
of the 2,557 days of the seven years considered, 2 had been 
recorded as having a mean temperature between 0° and 
5° Fahr. ; 3 between 5° and 10° ; 21 between 10° and 15° ; 
28 between 15° and 20°; 80 between 20° and 25°; 124 
between 25° and 30°; 203 between 30° and 35°; and so 
on, until all the 2,557 days were thus accounted for, in 
some one of the groups of 5° temperature between zero, 
the lower limit, and 95°, the upper limit. 

It would have been possible in a similar manner to 
count the number of days for each single degree; but a 
curve based upon such a complicated series would be 
almost unintelligible; so definite meteorological groups 
have been chosen for each condition, as being better for 
our purpose than the single unit of measure. 

Having thus counted the number of days occurring 
in each one of the temperature groups of 5°, the next 
process is to turn these numbers into percentages of the 



THE EMPIRICAL PROBLEM 69 

whole number of days, and we find that one-tenth per 
cent. (.1%) of the days for the seven years had a mean 
temperature between 0° and 5°; .2% between 5° and 
10°; .8% between 10° and 15°; 1.19% between 15° and 
20°; 3.1% between 20° and 25°; 5.5% between 25° and 
30°; and so on. These figures represent the normal 
prevalence of the temperatures represented by each of 
the groups. 

It can be readily seen that this represents the percent- 
age of data of any class which the law of numerical 
probability would lead one to expect under that con- 
dition, if the temperature exerted no influence. For 
instance, if 5.5% of the days for the seven years had a 
mean temperature somewhere between 25° and 30°, the 
law of probability would lead us to expect that same 
percentage (5.5) of the entire number of murders or 
suicides or deaths occurring in that period to have 
occurred under that temperature group, provided the 
temperature itself had no effect. 

To illustrate: One-seventh (1-7) of all the days of 
the year are Mondays, 1-7 Tuesdays, 1-7 Wednesdays, 
and so on through the week. Now since one-seventh 
equals 14.3%, 14.3% of the days of a year, or any num- 
ber of years, are Mondays, 14.3% Tuesdays, and the 
same for the other five days. Since this is so, the law of 
numerical probability would lead us to expect that same 
per cent. (14.3) of all the murders or suicides or deaths 
for a series of years to occur on each of the days of the 
week, provided there was no condition, social or indus- 
trial, to affect their distribution. Whatever variation 
might be found to exist must be ascribed to some force 
affecting the conditions. 



70 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

For the barometer, one-tenth (1-10) in. variation in 
the heights of the mercury column was taken as a unit 
of difference; for humidity, five-hundredths (5-100) ; 
and for wind, a difference of 50 miles in the total move- 
ment for the day. 

As has been stated, a special "expectancy curve" was 
made use of for the year 1886-87, and for the school 
years. The necessity for so doing was this : Although 
the "expectancy curve" for the seven years from 1891- 
97, inclusive, may be considered a normal curve for all 
time, it could hardly be referred with exactness to iso- 
lated years without the introduction of considerable 
error, due to the variation of those years from the true 
normal, hence the necessity of extra labor in the prepara- 
tion of a special curve for those years. 

A separate curve for the school year is even more 
necessary, since so large a portion of the calendar year, 
and that at one of the extremes of temperature, is left 
out. Neither of these special expectancy curves is 
shown upon the tables or charts, though they have been 
made use of in plotting all the curves indicating condi- 
tions for death, suicide and the school problem. 

Having explained the construction of the "expectancy 
curve," it now remains to show its application. Oppo- 
site the meteorological conditions for each day, as they 
were copied in the blank-book already referred to, were 
placed, in separate columns, the number of data of each 
class for that day, — that is, one column for each of the 
classes of data relating to the public schools, one each 
for male and female assaults, one for discipline in the 
penitentiary, one each for male and female insane, and 
so on for all the classes studied. 



THE EMPIRICAL PROBLEM 71 

Since all were treated alike in constructing what I 
have called the "occurrence curve," that for male assault 
only, in its relation to the expectancy curve for temper- 
ature already discussed, will be considered. The sum 
of the data for this class of assaults for the 2,557 days 
of the years 1891-97 inclusive, was 36,627. By the 
process of tabulation made use of in constructing the 
expectancy curve, it was found that 50 of that number 
occurred on days when the temperature was between 0° 
and 5° Fahrenheit; 53 between 10° and 15° ; 288 between 
15° and 20° ; and so on for each group of 5 degrees up 
to the upper limit of daily mean. Turning these num- 
bers into percentages of the whole, as was done in the 
previous discussion, we have .1% for the temperature 
group 0° to 5°; .1% between 5° and 10°; .7% between 
10° and 15° ; .8% between 15° and 20° ; and so on. The 
curve itself is not shown upon any of the tables. Now, 
we have already computed and shown in the "expectancy 
curve" the percentages which the law of numerical prob- 
ability, applied to each of the temperature groups,* would 
lead one to expect. A comparison of these percentages 
of occurrence with those of expectancy would indicate 
whether there was an excess or a deficiency for any of 
the groups. In the case under consideration, for the 
temperature group 5° to 10°, the expectancy was .2% 
and occurrence .1 % . But .1 % is but one-half of .2 % , or 
50% of .2%, or 50% less than .2%, and we have its rela- 
tion to the expectancy indicated as — 50%. This fact is 
shown on the proper figure by the curve being 50% 
below the heavy line. For the group 10° to 15°, the 
expectancy is .8%, and the occurrence .7%. But 7 is 1, 
or 1-8 of 8, less than 8, or 12.5% (=1-8) ) of 8 less than 



72 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

8, which fact is indicated upon the chart. For the next 
group the expectancy is 1.1%, and the occurrence .8%. 
By the same computation it will be seen that .8% is .27% 
of 1.1% less than 1.1%, which is also indicated. 

This is the method of computation made use of in all 
the curves except the "attendance" curves (Figs. 4 to 9) , 
and those for data classed as XVI. 

In brief, when a curve is above the heavy horizontal 
line it indicates an excess of data to an amount repre- 
sented by its distance above the horizontal or datum line; 
when below, a deficiency of the magnitude indicated by 
its distance below. In some of these figures, ordinates 
are used, the curve being represented by the upper ex- 
tremities of the ordinates. In these figures, 100 per 
cent, or expectancy, is represented by the ordinate dis- 
tance from the base line to the horizontal datum line 
above. Although the curves show with exactness the 
relation between the expected number of occurrences 
and the actual number for any group of meteorological 
conditions, there are some few facts which might well be 
borne in mind in regard to them : 

First They mean more and perhaps are more valid 
near the center of the curve than at the extremes, for the 
reason that near the center they are based upon more 
data and are, therefore, less liable to be affected by con- 
ditions accidental to the problem. 

Second. Each meteorological condition has to be 
studied and the curves constructed as if none of the 
other conditions were in any way effective. 

Unless two or more of the conditions tended to vary 
in the same way, this fact would have no effect upon the 
curves, as otherwise, in the great number of days studied, 



THE EMPIRICAL PROBLEM 73 

the influence of one upon another would tend to nega- 
tive the effect. If, however, two conditions generally 
accompany one another, there would be a possibility that 
effects indicated by the curve of one condition were con- 
tributed to by the other, without that fact being in any 
way shown. 

Third, The excesses and deficiencies indicated by 
any curve need not be, and probably never are, equal. 
Although the sum of all the percentages of the Normal 
Prevalence Curves, and also the Occurrence Curves (not 
shown) , upon which the curves for each class of data are 
based, is 100, it is not so for the curves plotted, because 
the latter are based upon many more data in some parts 
than in others. To give a concrete example : In a cer- 
tain meteorological group 1 % of all the data considered 
might be "expected" and 2% occur, — that is, 1% more, 
or twice as many, — but the plotted curve would show 
100% excess. In another meteorological condition 10% 
of all the data might be expected and 9% occur (the same 
actual number less) , while the plotted curve would indi- 
cate a deficiency of but 10%. From this illustration it 
may be seen that there can be no constant relation between 
the indicated excesses and deficiencies of any curve. 

Fourth. By making use of meteorological groups 
rather than smaller units of measure for each condition, 
some of the real effects of those conditions may not be 
indicated by the curves. It would, however, be utterly 
impracticable to work out the expectancy and occur- 
rence for each degree of temperature or for each hun- 
dredth of an inch of the barometer, and I am inclined to 
think that the loss for grouping is very slight. Certain- 
ly there is no positive error introduced by so doing. 



CHAPTER VI 



THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS 

Since we have considered the effects of weather as but 
the resultant of the combined effects of its ever-varying 
components, it is necessary that those components be 
defined and a description given of the process of their 
measurement, as carried on by the United States Weather 
Bureau. Incidentally, too, we mention the recognized 
influence of each meteorological condition upon climate, 
in its effect upon racial traits. 

Temperature. Man surpasses all his fellows in the 
animal kingdom in his ability to live in different degrees 
of temperature, the extreme range of the thermometer 
for all parts of his habitat being nearly 200 degrees 
Fahrenheit. It is even probable that a single individual 
might experience both of these extremes for a brief 
period without disastrous results. In their effects upon 
the race, however, varying temperatures have been rec- 
ognized by every student of climatology. Inhabitants 
of hot climates are usually listless, uninventive, apathetic 
and improvident. An equable high temperature, espe- 
cially if moist, weakens body and mind. No long- 
established lowland tropical people is a conquering race 
in the broadest sense of the word. For the inhabitants 
of the higher altitudes, even under the tropical sun, 

74 



THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS 75 

this may not be true; for as we ascend, the temperature 
lessens about one degree every 270 feet on an average, 
and even at the equator we may have a temperate cli- 
mate. 

The most favorable temperature for health that car- 
ries with it an aggressive energy which is felt, and which 
has led the world-march of civilization, is about 55 
degrees to 70 degrees, on an average ; and this is found 
in the temperate zones. From there have come the 
brawn and brain of martial conquest and intellectual 
attainment. The dominant peoples are shown between 
the latitudes of 25 degrees and 55 degrees. Farther 
north the available vital energy seems so largely expend- 
ed in furnishing mere body heat and stimulus for the 
necessary physiological functions, that there is little left 
for use in those activities which make leaders. 

The question as to the ability of races to thrive under 
conditions of temperature other than those of their 
ancestors is one which has received considerable atten- 
tion. It has long been held that the tropics could never 
become a field of conquest for the nations of the temper- 
ate zones, since the climate rendered occupation by them 
impossible. Notwithstanding the fact that distinguished 
observers maintain this, experience seems to demonstrate 
that acclimatization depends very largely upon a rigid 
observance of sanitary and hygienic rules, and many 
places which were once considered fatal to the white 
man are being proved comparatively healthful. When 
we consider that they have lost their bad name solely by 
an exercise of local and personal hygiene, we must not 
despair of the power of man to reduce the unhealthful- 
ness of even large areas in tropical climates. 



76 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

The apparatus used by the Weather Bureau at its 
various stations for measuring the exact temperature 
are the thermograph and the maximum and minimum 
thermometers. The former gives a continuous record 
of the temperature ; the latter two show respectively the 
highest and the lowest temperature for each twenty- four 
hours. The temperature readings made use of in this 
study (except for problem in discrimination) are the 
average of all observations for each day. This is found 
to be practically the average of all the temperatures for 
that time — that is, of the termograph readings. 

Barometer. At the sea-level, or near it, the mean 
barometer readings for the year are practically the same 
the world over. Any study then, of the effects of cli- 
mate as indicated by prevailing barometric conditions 
must be largely one of altitude. At the level of the sea the 
weight of the atmosphere above is equal to the weight of a 
column of mercury 76mm., or 29.98 inches high, this being 
the normal height of the barometer at that level. As 
we go to higher altitudes, we climb through some of the 
atmosphere, leaving it at levels below us. This fact is 
shown by lessening of the height of the mercury column 
as compared with lower barometric readings. For the 
lower regions of the atmosphere (three miles or so) the 
mercury column falls about one inch for each 1,000 feet 
of ascent. The variations of the barometer at a given 
location are due to atmospheric conditions, such as mois- 
ture or an upward or downward direction of wind col- 
umns. We are not, however, in this chapter, concerned 
with such variations. 

The general effect of high altitudes is undoubtedly 
an invigorating one, though liable to affect disastrously 



THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS 77 

the action of the heart and the nervous mechanism. The 
ability of a healthy man suddenly to transplant himself 
to altitudes at which the pressure of the atmosphere is 
reduced one-third or even more, without effect, seems 
wonderful. I have myself spent some weeks in succes- 
sion at an altitude of over two miles, and on several 
occasions spent the night upon the summit of Pike's 
Peak (14,147 feet) without noticing any effect other 
than a slight quickening of pulse and respiration. Pro- 
longed residence, however, at any altitude above one 
mile seems, at least in Colorado, to prove cumulative in 
its effect upon the nervous system, inducing in most 
cases a neurotic condition that is relieved only by a tempo- 
rary residence in a lower altitude. These facts will be 
alluded to in a discussion of the Denver curves. 

Dr. Marcet says: 1 "The effect of altitude and cold 
combined is to increase the amount of carbon dioxide 
expired. Less air is expired at high altitudes. It ap- 
pears that the blood more readily acquires oxygen there 
than at low levels." 

Increased expansion of the chest and action of the 
heart add to the strength and vigor, and mountain races 
are generally fine in build. If, too, we are to judge by 
the histories of the Swiss people, and of the Spartans, or 
even the mountain Indian tribes of our own country, 
compared with those of the plains, we must concede that 
boldness in the face of danger and a love of liberty are 
in some way closely associated with life in the higher 
altitudes. 

For studying the pressure of the atmosphere, the 
stations of the Weather Bureau are equipped with self- 

1 Proceedings of the Royal Society. 



78 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

registering aneroid baragraphs and mercurial barome- 
ters. Readings from both are corrected for the altitudes 
of the station, and for variations in temperature. The 
barometric data used in this study are the means for all 
observations for each day. 

Humidity. Great humidities are preeminently char- 
acteristic of the climates of certain localities, and very 
low ones of others, and the effects of the two conditions 
upon the inhabitants have been the subject of consider- 
able study. The greater part of it has aimed, however, 
to discover their effect upon various prevailing diseases, 
though not without bringing out incidentally the general 
influence upon race type. From the standpoint of 
health, dry air is almost universally favorable to human 
life. This may be due partly to the fact that the germs 
of contagious diseases do not there find the culture- 
media for propagation which the moist surfaces of rocks 
and foliage in a humid atmosphere present, although 
there is undoubtedly a direct organic effect as well. 
Excessive heat, together with great humidity, forms a 
most deadly combination for one not acclimated to it, as 
the mortality on the west coast of Africa testifies ; while 
in some localities — as, for instance, western Ireland, the 
lake regions of England, and the extreme northwestern 
coast of our own country — much moisture from a great 
rainfall without excessive heat is not particularly un- 
healthful. In its effect upon the emotional and intel- 
lectual characteristics of a race, it is hard to consider 
humidity apart from the other weather conditions which 
accompany it. 

A region of great humidity must be one of much 
rainfall, fog, and many cloudy days ; while one of low 



THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS 79 

humidity, in all probability lacks these as prevailing 
conditions. As they are all considered under other 
headings of this section, and humidity has incidentally 
been touched upon in the previous topic, we shall not 
attempt it here. 

The determination of humidity, or relative humidity, 
as it is called by the Weather Bureau, is accomplished 
by means of two thermometers, the so-called dry-bulb 
and the wet-bulb. 

The first is the ordinary thermometer, by which the 
temperature is indicated. The second is similar, except 
that the mercury bulb is surrounded by a cloth which 
may be saturated with water. When this is done, air is 
artificially made to pass over the saturated cloth, which 
causes the water to evaporate rapidly. The heat which 
is rendered latent by this process comes from the mer- 
cury of the thermometer, making it descend in the tube 
with a rapidity proportional to that of evaporation. In 
dry air the latter process is much more rapid than in 
damp air, and by noting the difference of the readings 
of the dry-bulb and the wet-bulb instruments, and mak- 
ing a simple mathematical computation, the relative 
humidity is determined. It is read in hundredths, one 
hundred meaning air saturated with moisture, and zero, 
air free from it. The former point is often reached; 
the latter never. The humidity made use of in this 
study is the mean of a morning and an afternoon obser- 
vation. 

Wind. As an element in climate, the effects of the 
wind are harder to determine than those of other meteor- 
ological conditions. Not that its effects are not great; 
but that they are occasional and might perhaps more 



80 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

strictly be regarded as an element of weather than of 
climate. A study of the chapters that compare the wind 
effects at Denver with those at New York will convince 
one that they certainly are not in any way proportional 
to the velocity of the wind; but with the prevalence of 
other meteorological conditions, together with the wind, 
each, seemingly, strengthens the effect of the other. 
The direct physiological effects of winds of different 
humidities have been noticed. 

Dr. Arthur Mitchell, 1 in a report read before the 
Meteorological Conferences, speaks of the effects of the 
east wind prevailing on the coast of England : 

"Such winds, blowing over a moist surface, such, for 
instance, as that of the human body, tend to reduce the 
temperature of that surface to the temperature of evap- 
oration, which is much below that of the air itself. In 
licking up the moisture — that is, causing its evaporation 
— a large amount of heat is rendered latent. This heat 
must be taken from something, and, in point of fact, our 
bodies are, and must be, almost its entire source. A cold 
and dry wind, therefore, cools the surface of our bodies, 
not only by enveloping them in a cool medium and 
warming itself by conduction at their expense — it does 
that, of course — but, being dry as well as cold, it does it 
with less activity than though it were moist and cold, 
damp air being a better conductor than dry air. It is 
chiefly, however, by the other mode that dry, cold winds 
abstract heat from our bodies — that is, by using their 
heat in the conversion of moisture into vapor. The heat 
so used becomes latent, and is, for the time being, lost. 
It does not raise the temperature of the air in immediate 

Mature, Vol. 30, p. 355. 



THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS 81 

contact with our bodies. The quantity of heat which 
our bodies lose is probably far from insignificant, and the 
loss cannot be sustained without involving extensive and 
important physiological actions, and without influencing 
the state of health. In feeble and delicate constitutions 
the resources of nature prove insufficient to meet the 
demands made upon them, and a condition of disease 
ensues. It does not seem improbable that prevailing 
winds of such characters might be considered as elements 
in climate, which might in course of time produce even 
racial changes. Certainly the nurture of disease, espe- 
cially if the disease prove to any extent mortal, would, in 
accordance with the laws of heredity, tend toward the 
introduction of physiological tendencies, which might 
even have their mental concomitants." 

Of occasional winds, some, such as the siroccos of 
northern Africa, are so baneful as also, it seems, to leave 
permanent results upon the characteristics of the people. 
In The Living Age 1 there is a description of the peculiar 
effects of winds sometimes prevalent at Buenos Ayres, 
South America. Sir Woodbine Parish, upon whose 
book the extract is based, says : 

"To the north of the city lies a very marshy district, 
while to the southwest lies the great chain of the Andes, 
separated only by the dry plains of the Pampas, and 
according as the wind blows from one or the other of 
these directions the effects are very remarkable. By the 
time the north wind has reached the city it has become so 
overcharged with moisture that everything becomes 
instantly damp. The effects produced in the human 
body are a general lassitude and relaxation, opening the 

^ol. 17, p. 1118. 

7 



82 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

pores of the skin and inducing great liability to colds, 
sore throat and all consequences of checked perspiration. 
This damp wind of La Plata seems to affect the temper 
and disposition of the inhabitants. The irritability and 
ill humor it excites in them amount to little less than a 
temporary derangement of their moral faculties. It 
is a common thing for men among the better class to 
shut themselves up in their houses during its continu- 
ance, and lay aside all business till it has passed; while 
among the lower classes it is always remarked that cases 
of quarreling and bloodshed are more frequent during 
the north wind than at any other time. Even murderers 
are said to lay to it the blame of their foul deeds. No 
sooner, however, does the southwest wind, blowing from 
the dry and snowy summits of the Andes, set in, than 
health and comfort and peace are restored." 

Disastrous to good conduct as these winds seem to be, 
they are hardly worse than some exactly their opposite — 
both in temperature and moisture — which are occasional 
visitors to the higher altitudes of Colorado. During the 
prevalence of such, the humidity is invariably excessively 
low, and in the dry air there seems to be set up, by the 
movement of the wind particles and the leaves and 
grasses set in motion by them, an electrical state which 
in some undetermined way wreaks havoc with the emo- 
tions. Its effect is, however, shown empirically by some 
of the curves. 

The Signal Service makes use of two instruments in 
studying the wind, — a vane with automatic electrical 
indicator for showing its direction, and the anemometer 
for registering the velocity. Both of these are exposed 
to the unobstructed force of the wind, though connected 



THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS 83 

electrically with the indicators in the office below. Both 
the instruments register upon a drum revolved by clock- 
work, and at any time the direction and velocity of the 
wind can be seen at a glance. The total movement for 
the day, or the number of miles blown for twenty- four 
hours, is used in all our studies except XVI. 

Character of the Day. This condition has no 
relation to rain or snow-fall ; nor is fog indicated directly 
by any of its conditions. The terms "Fair," "Partly 
Cloudy" and "Cloudy," refer only to the periods of 
sunshine for each day compared with the whole time 
from sunrise to sunset. If for eight-tenths or more of 
the latter period the sun is obscured, the day is character- 
ized as "Cloudy;" if four-, six- or seven-tenths are ob- 
scured, as "Partly Cloudy;" if less, "Fair." 

Many opinions have been expressed, both in general 
literature and in purely scientific writings, as to the 
racial influence of these characteristics of climate. Italy 
has always been "Sunny Italy," and England "Gloomy 
Britain," and the supposed effects of the two conditions 
made the excuse for many different traits of character. 
Dickens based many of his tragic climaxes upon his 
analysis of their influences, and many other writers have 
made stock of them. Yet, after all, characterization of 
any race must be based upon definite acts of individual 
members of that race; and a comparison of races and 
racial traits should be made only through a comparison 
of the conduct of their respective peoples. In such an 
inductive study we fail to corroborate the mass of exist- 
ing opinion with respect to the effects of a "sunny 
clime," or its opposite. It has been stated that "the ex- 
cessive number of suicides for England is due to its 



84 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

gloomy climate" (Montesquieu) ; but data show that the 
number per 100,000 for England is less than that for 
any other European country. Vilemais maintains that 
"nine-tenths of the suicides occur in rainy or cloudy 
weather." For data in refutation of that statement, in 
New York City at least, for the period considered, I 
refer to the curve for suicides in New York, shown upon 
Fig. 43. 

Another interesting fact bearing upon this point is 
shown on the same chart by the Denver suicide curve; 
and although the percentage of fair days is three times 
greater than in New York City, the number of suicides 
runs up as much for cloudy days as in the latter climate 
it runs down. 

Even at the risk of robbing the section in which sui- 
cides are especially discussed, I shall here insert a quota- 
tion from a very interesting paper that appeared in 
Once a Week (Vol. 19) without signature (the writer 
was evidently not a Scotchman) : 

"The idea that the prevalence of suicide in this coun- 
try is due to our bad weather is precisely one of those 
hasty and illogical inferences whch are characteristic of 
the Gallic mind. The constant gloom of bad weather 
ought to acquaint us so thoroughly with moods of de- 
pression that suicide would never occur to us. Look at 
Scotland, for instance, where suicides are rare. Why 
are they rare? Simply because a succession of Scotch 
Sundays has so accustomed the people to prolonged 
despondency that any sudden misfortune cannot sink 
their spirits any further. One has only to spend a 
dozen Sundays in Glasgow or Edinburgh to become 
inoculated against suicide. So far from November fogs 



THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS 85 

driving people to jump off Waterloo Bridge, they ought 
to train and educate the mind to bear any calamity. A 
man who has taught himself to eat prodigious quantities 
of opium feels scarcely any effect from other forms of 
intoxication. We can educate our mental susceptibili- 
ties as we can our muscles, and the more we educate 
them the more they will bear." 

There are many truths beneath the jocular vein of this 
quotation, and the writer expressed more fact than per- 
haps he knew. A constant succession of gloomy days 
is certainly not conducive to emotional flights; but the 
sturdy determination and evenness of temperament of 
the English have without doubt been contributed to by 
them. The almost constantly sunny climate of Colo- 
rado has, I believe, even in the few years it has been 
enjoyed by the white man, tended to produce a state of 
emotional inequilibrium which has shown itself in many 
ways, and has had its effects upon the political and social 
history of the region. 

The apparatus used by the Weather Bureau for 
determining the character of the day is known as "sun- 
shine recorder." It consists of a thermometer, with its 
bulb blackened to increase the absorption of heat from 
direct sunlight, enclosed in a vacuum tube to prevent as 
far as possible the direct influence of the temperature 
of the surrounding air. The piece of apparatus is in 
such a position as to receive the sun's rays during the 
entire day. When the direct rays strike the blackened 
bulb the mercury suddenly rises and closes an electrical 
circuit, which causes a record to be made upon a revolv- 
ing drum in the office below. When the sun is obscured 
the mercury drops and the circuit is broken. The com- 



36 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

putation in tenths of the possible sunshine hours is made 
by the weather official. 

Precipitation. There is little to be said upon this 
condition of climate, in its effect upon race characteris- 
tics, which has not been touched upon under the preced- 
ing topic. By it is meant a fall of water in some of its 
physical states. 

Regions where precipitation is great are generally less 
healthful than where the amount is less; though some 
exceptions to this have already been cited. Attention 
might here be called to the fact that the relation between 
cloudy days and those showing precipitation is not so 
constant as might at first seem probable. That is, a day 
on which a shower took place, even though the rainfall 
was considerable, would be classed among the fair days, 
provided the whole period of cloudiness was less than 
three-tenths of the period from sunrise to sunset. Since, 
however, there are no climates where days of such a 
character form a constant element, they need not here 
be taken into consideration. Undoubtedly thunder- 
storms induce in many persons emotional states which 
seem to be productive of excesses in deportment ; but we 
must remember that these excesses are caused by the 
electrical conditions or by a superstitious fear which can- 
not be controlled, and we should not attribute them to the 
precipitation. These are, however, elements of weather, 
rather than of climate in its broadest sense. 

The latest device used by the Weather Bureau for 
measuring the precipitation consists of a hopper or 
scale-pan which is so constructed as to tip and empty 
itself, and at the same time make an electrical indication 
of the fact in the office below, for each one-hundredth 



THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS 87 

of an inch of precipitation. By counting these records 
upon the revolving drum, the officers can tell the exact 
time, the rapidity, and the amount of precipitation for 
each shower or period of rain. 

In our study, a day is considered as having precipita- 
tion if the hopper of the instrument has emptied itself 
once. No consideration is taken of the amount beyond 
this. 

Fig. 1 shows the monthly means .both, for New York 
City and Denver, Colorado, of the meteorological con- 
dition discussed in this chapter. 

As will be seen, the two curves for temperature run 
very nearly parallel, the only marked difference being 
that the heated season for Denver extends a little later 
into the autumn, giving October a temperature a few 
degrees warmer than for the eastern city. 

It will also be noted that the western mean for the 
hottest months is a little below the other. This fact is 
undoubtedly due to the cooler nights, the temperature of 
which is included. 

The barometer curves are of not much value for our 
present study, because of the difference in altitude. 
The Denver curve must be read exactly five (5) inches 
below its position on the chart, and other than this indi- 
cated difference in pressure, perhaps little can be deduced 
from it. The curves for humidity are, however, of 
interest. The differences in atmospheric moisture shown 
by them are well recognized elements of contrast in the 
two climates. The noticeable fact is prevailing low 
humidity (dryness) for Denver, compared with the sea 
level, with the highest mean for the year (January) ten 
one-hundredths below the lowest, (April) for New York. 



88 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 

MONTHLY MEANS 
TEMPERATURE 

JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. WAY. JUN. JUL. AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 



40 



20 c 













<^ 


z^^ 






























N. Y. 
DEN. 


— -s-S^ 


















^ 


•^V. 



29.80 



80 



60 



40 



MILES 
9000 



8000 



4000 



BAROMETER 



N. 


\. 


























DEN 


VER _- 






___„. 


.-.-'' 








"* ~~ ~* 


. 


-- 

































HUMIDITY 



ji. 


Y. 














































den 


IVER 


















x- """ 


^- 










** . 


V ^~ 


,---■ 


• — • *" * «s 


* *"• ^_». - 


_-''' 







WIND TOTAL MOVEMENT 



























S^/ 


i^/ 














































^ 


n 'r J 






V 












„ 


— - 


• 

• 


""'-». 










'*&' 










„-«"""" " 




"— 


*» 







Figure 1 



THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS 89 

This fact is, however, discussed in connection with other 
curves later in this volume. 

The means for the total movement of the wind (ane- 
mometer registration for the month) furnish, I believe, a 
veritable surprise for the Coloradoan. If there is any 
vulnerable point in his climate he has always supposed 
it to be the wind. "These horrible winds," and "the 
windiest place I ever knew" have been common expres- 
sions of the newcomer, and the old resident has hardly 
dared to contradict them. Here, however, we have irre- 
futable evidence to the contrary, for these figures were 
taken from the Weather Bureau's records for twenty- 
one (21 ) years. Yet the highest movements for Denver 
(March and April) are less than the lowest for New 
York (July and August) , and the average for the year 
2,000 miles per month less. The eastern March, with 
its 8,800 miles, fairly puts to shame its western contem- 
porary, and the patriotic Denverite can add one more 
arrow — perhaps an unexpected one — to his quiver. It 
is true that the anemometer at the New York station 
stands about seventy-five feet higher from the ground 
than the one at Denver, but this difference can hardly 
account for the difference in registration. 

Yet it must be conceded that in one respect the western 
wind is more disastrous than that of the east. The 
studies referred to prove conclusively that its mental 
effects are greater. During high winds the prevalence 
of suicide and of murder, also of misdemeanors in the 
public schools, ran up to six or eight times the normal; 
while for the east the increase in all but suicide was found 
to be slight for such conditions. This was hypothet- 



90 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

ically accounted for by reference to the high electric 
potential of the atmosphere at such times. 

The precipitation for New York City is about three 
and one-half times that for Denver. 

The latter city has 42 per cent, of clear days to 27 per 
cent, for New York. The partly cloudy days are about 
equal, while the eastern city has about double the number 
of cloudy days. About this same relation exists too for 
days upon which precipitation was registered (Denver 
16%, New York 87%) . 



CHAPTER VII 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 

The phase of the weather problem discussed in this 
chapter was, at the beginning of the work, the only one 
anticipated. The whole study was undertaken from the 
standpoint of the teacher, with the hope of answering 
some of the puzzling questions which arise within his 
mind as to the seeming effects of these conditions of the 
cosmical environment upon the pupil. As the work 
proceeded, it broadened more and more, taking in other 
classes of data cognate to the subject, until those men- 
tioned in the last section were considered, with the field 
scarcely entered. The study has become a fascinating 
one, and though sanguine of the validity — as far as in- 
ductive studies may be valid — of certain of the conclu- 
sions, it might be well to state what seem to be the exact 
scope and bearing of the problem. 

First. It does not seem probable that we are dealing 
with the immediate cause of any of the occurrences 
studied. In the case of those considered in the present 
section, we are not supposing that a low condition of 
barometer and a low humidity were the direct causes of 
misdemeanor, but that under such conditions an impulse 
to be refractory, whatever the immediate cause of the 
impulse may be, could not be so well withstood as under 

91 



92 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

certain other conditions. In other words, the meteor- 
ological conditions are the essential causes of certain 
general physiological or mental states, some of which 
seem to be fertile fields for the action of immediate 
causes which are, from the standpoint of this problem, 
accidental. To be concrete: on a certain morning, 
Johnny could not have what he wanted for breakfast, 
and went to school in a sulk, with a consequent disastrous 
effect upon his deportment. Most certainly the disap- 
pointment at home had a causal relation to his demerit, 
and no excuse from the weather is sought. But if we 
take the record of 200 Johnnies for 600 different days, 
and find that on certain days more of them are out of 
sorts than on other days, we look for a constant condition 
which might be considered in some way the cause. We 
cannot suppose that bad breakfasts, or whippings at 
home, or the disappointments common to child life would 
bear this constant relation; we look for it elsewhere. 
Wherever found, it must be considered valid. But it 
must be some factor which would be a part of the en- 
vironment of all the children similarly affected. We 
have sought for it in the varying conditions of weather, 
with what success is shown by the curves which form the 
basis of our discussion. Remember, then, that when we 
say that high temperatures cause an excess of suicides 
or any of the other occurrences studied, we mean it only 
in this secondary sense. This explanation must serve as 
an answer to many of the hypothetical explanations of 
conduct which were made in answer to the questions we 
are about to discuss; in fact, it would apply to all the 
abnormal states which were accidental to individuals, 
whatever their character or immediate cause. 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 93 

Second. Although the study discussed in the present 
chapter is based upon the deportment of children as 
judged by the teacher, it is not at all certain that the 
emotional state of the teacher is not an important factor 
in the result. Indeed, it may be the teacher that we are 
studying more largely even than the pupil. This has been 
suggested in many of the notes I have received, and 
supplementary to the empirical problem with the school 
children as it has been already outlined, I attempted to 
secure by means of a questionaire the opinions of a large 
number of teachers as to the observed influences of the 
weather upon the conduct and efficiency of their pupils, 
and shall first describe this phase of the problem. 

Third. The effects upon different individuals cannot 
be supposed to be at all commensurate. There may be 
many whom weather conditions do not appreciably 
affect ; but in any inductive study we seek general laws, 
and though they may not be true for any single individ- 
ual, yet they are valid for them all as a class. 

Before entering into a discussion of the questionaire 
I wish to say that I recognize fully the short-comings of 
the method. Questions, however carefully framed, are 
suggestive of certain answers and, no doubt, frequently 
influence the judgment of those responding, in spite of 
all precaution. It is probably true, also, that of the 
whole number of persons appealed to, a larger propor- 
tion of those whose opinions are positive — that is, are 
affirmative — take the trouble to reply, than of those 
whose opinions are negative, or of those who have no 
definite opinions at all. I have, however, considered the 
returns of sufficient weight to merit full discussion. 

The questionaire was as follows : 



94 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



Date 

Name 

Position. 

About how many individuals are under your direct observation: 

Adult Male Female 

Youth(15-20) " ....o " 

Children " " 

2 Have you noticed any seeming effect of weather conditions on their deportment? 



What kinds of days 
seem to affect them 
for the worse 

On what kinds of 
days do they seem 
at their best 

On what kinds of 
days does mental 
work seem at its 
best 

At its worst 

If your charges do 
mechanical work, 
on what kinds of 
days can they turn 
out most 

Least 



Hot 



Cold 



Windy 



Calm 



Stormy 



Muggy 



Cloudy 



Clear 



Put X in proper space. "Hot" and "Cold" mean for the time of year. "Muggy" 
means "sticky" or humid. 

Extended remarks bearing upon the subject are very much desired, and may be 
written on the other side of this blank. 

If you have noticed a different magnitude of effect upon men, women, boys or 
girls, please state it. 

Many of the remarks by teachers in various parts of 
the country in response to the request at the bottom of 
the questionaire are very valuable, and I regret that 
space does not permit the publication of more of them 
in full. Of the 200 questionaires sent out, 86 bearing 
upon the public school problem were returned filled out 
in full. Several who did not care to answer definitely 
the questions given, wrote their general observations in 
a very helpful manner. The exact number of pupils 
upon whom the answers to the definite questions were 
based was as follows : 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 95 

For climates similar to that of New York (Philadel- 
phia, Boston, and the coast cities and towns) : 

Boys 4801 

Girls 3148 

Boys doing mechanical work 3300 

Girls doing mechanical work 1500 

For Colorado : 

Boys and Girls 2218 

For the latter climate no estimates were given for the 
production of mechanical work. In most cases the 
replies were from teachers of single grades, giving their 
judgment based upon observation of a limited number 
of pupils, though in some cases city superintendents and 
principals have sent me their estimates of the weather 
effects upon larger numbers — in one case (Boston) of 
1,700. The exact tabulation of all the returns is shown 
by the curves upon Fig. 2. I have there indicated the 
judgments for the Colorado climate separately from 
those from other localities. 

The curves show the percentages of all the children of 
each class for whom the judgments indicated were given. 
To prevent a complication of curves, I have separated 
those showing the conditions for which deportment or 
work was at its worst from those under which it was at 
its best. To interpret one of the curves in full: the 
entire line in the upper left-hand corner of the chart 
shows the judgment of conditions under which the de- 
portment of the boys was at its best. None expressed 
the belief that it was so when the weather was hot. The 
judgments based upon 75 per cent, of the pupils ob- 
served were that they were at their best, so far as deport- 
ment is concerned, under conditions of cold. One per 



96 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



cent, believed the wind had a salutary effect, 64 per cent, 
calm, 1 per cent, stormy, none muggy or cloudy, and 96 
per cent, clear. All the curves may be interpreted in 

JUDGEMENTS OF TEACHERS AS TO WEATHER EFFECTS. 
r ncpnBTMPKT CLASS WORK = MECHAN. WORK 

BEST BOYS WORST 

HOT COLD WIND CALM STORM MUGGY CLOUD CLEAR HOT COLD WIND CALM STORM MUGGY CLOUD CLEAR 

100 

80 
60 
40 
20 






A 












i 


















1 


in \\ 




A 






i 


i 


1 




1 / 


i/ \ 


i 








I 




\y 




\^ 




j 





_v 










A 




1 


\ 










A 






V 










r 






\ 






i) 
I 










xa. 




U 




\ 


\ 



GIRLS 



100 
80 
60 
40 
20 




A 



£ 




COLORADO 

BOYS AND GIRLS 








A 




A 




>^ 




v \ 




/\ 




/\ 




\ 






i 


/ \ 


\ , 


/ / 


\ 


\ 




V 


/ 




\ 




\ 




\ 




V 




V- 




\ 


\ 


\ 



Figure 2 



this way, remembering that the curves under the head- 
ing "worst" indicate the percentages of pupils upon 
which judgments for that state were based. The fact 
that the percentages shown by a single curve foot up to 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 97 

more than 100 indicates that more than one condition 
was mentioned as being that under which the pupil was 
at his best or worst. In most cases, three conditions 
were thus mentioned, though the papers varied in this 
respect from one to as many as five. 

It must, of course, be recognized that the judgment as 
to what constitutes a given condition — that is "Windy" 
or "Muggy," "Hot" or "Cold"— must vary with differ- 
ent individuals ; but such conceptions are somewhat con- 
stant, and would probably not be the source of any con- 
siderable error. 

Considering first the curves for climates similar to 
that of New York, we see that cold, calm, and clear days 
are those on which deportment and work are generally 
considered to be at their best, with the greatest unanimity 
with regard to the latter. For "Worst" condition, 
muggy days take the lead, with hot and windy ones in 
second and third places. Comparing the Deportment 
curves for boys with that for girls, we see an indication 
of what is referred to in the notes discussed farther on — 
that is, that boys are influenced more than girls by the 
weather conditions, at least by heat, cold and wind. 
Seventy-five per cent, of the latter (girls) were judged 
to be at their best on cold days and 64 per cent, on calm, 
to 56 per cent, and 46 per cent, respectively for the 
former (boys) ; while under conditions of heat 50 per 
cent, of the boys were thought to be at their worst to 30 
per cent, of the girls. A fact worthy of note is the 
increased bad effect of heat upon the production of 
mechanical work, over its effect upon deportment or 
mental work. This would indicate that the increased 
metabolism of the processes of life under such conditions 

8 



98 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

more largely deplete the reserve for motor output than 
for mental, and in spite of the irritating effect, emotion- 
ally, of the temper, leaves little energy for f rolicsomeness. 

To summarize in brief these curves: hot, cold, calm, 
muggy, and clear days seem to be the effective ones ; cold 
calm, and clear ones producing a favorable result, and 
the others the reverse. Windy, stormy, and cloudy days 
are not generally mentioned as having much influence. 

In discussing the curves for Colorado, we have but to 
call attention to a fact which corroborates in a very 
marked way conclusions arrived at later in this chapter, 
namely, the marked effect of the wind. All the returns 
state calms as an accompaniment of desirable states in 
the pupil, and wind of the most disastrous. A muggy 
day is hardly known to Colorado teachers, so we get no 
corroborative evidence with regard to the problem of 
humidity treated later. 

As shown by the notes received with the data which 
has been discussed, I may say that there is a much greater 
unanimity of belief that the weather has its psychical 
effects, than of expressed opinion as to what those ef- 
fects are or the exact meteorological conditions produc- 
ing them. The influence of the conditions studied upon 
the teacher is not infrequently mentioned, and I quote a 
part of one of the letters bearing upon this point : "Make 
due allowance for my 'personal equation.' It is impos- 
sible for me to say how far my experience is subjective. 
It seems to be more marked in this matter than almost 
any with whom I have discussed it, and I strongly sus- 
pect subjective conditions. My experiences when in 
good and when in poor physical conditions correspond 
in kind, but are much more intense in the latter case." 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 99 

The consensus of opinion, both as indicated by the 
curves and the personal notes, seems to be that girls are 
much less affected by weather conditions than boys. In 
eight of the notes the fact was alluded to, while none 
expressed the opposite opinion. One teacher, a super- 
vising principal of elementary schools in one of the 
larger eastern cities, says: "The boys are very markedly 
more susceptible to weather changes than the girls. This 
apparent result may be due to the generally greater 
display of effects by the boy, who is under less disci- 
plinary control than the girl." 

And another, "Girls are greater adepts, not only at 
restraining impulses to do mischief, but also in conceal- 
ing all evidences of it when it is in progress. This may 
be due to a greater horror on their part of an open rep- 
rimand." 

It seems to me probable, however, that the matter of 
reserve and excess of vital energy enters into this prob- 
lem. The preponderating anabolic tendency of the 
female, as opposed to the katabolism of the male, may 
be at the bottom of it. 1 In spite of this expressed belief 
of a less effect upon girls than boys, a few of the obser- 
vations by principals, of the influence of the weather 
upon the teacher, state an opposite effect upon adults of 
the two sexes. 

To quote from the principal of a large city school: 
"Men, it is true, are depressed on such days" (gloomy 
days) ; "but the average man keeps his nerve under pro- 
per restraint, which is something which the average 
woman, from the peculiar mechanism of her nervous 
machinery, finds it difficult to do. The writer has had 

x See "Evolution of Sex." Geddes and Thompson. 



100 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

during his thirty- four years of professional service the 
assistance of both sexes, and can say, fearless of contra- 
diction, that men are better able to maintain that patience 
and quiet demeanor which are necessary in the school- 
room." 

The relation of the two curves for males and females 
in the study of Assault is corroborative of this opinion. 

Considering the slight effect of the wind, as indicated 
by the curves upon the charts, a surprisingly large num- 
ber of the notes make mention of this condition as 
having an adverse effect. This was expected from the 
Colorado returns — in which, indeed, it was universally 
mentioned as the most potent factor — but not in those 
from lower altitudes. Since, however, notes were ap- 
pended to but a small proportion of the questionaires, 
the more exact data expressed by the curves are prob- 
ably more valid. The only other condition of weather 
which received more than a single mention was snow. 

One teacher says, "A cold, snowy day, children rest- 
less and noisy." And another, "A day upon which 
there is snow seems (in case of boys) to bring all physi- 
cal activity in them out, and makes them reach a high 
pitch of physical excitement." It seems to me possible 
that this is, in part at least, due to the participation in 
the active sports which snow makes possible. Coasting 
and snow-balling are always most attractive to the boy; 
and an impatience to be out of doors, even if the accom- 
panying meteorological conditions were not directly 
operative, might bring about just the emotional condi- 
tions described. 

Interesting as are these expressed opinions, from a 
scientific standpoint they cannot have the weight which 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 101 

the exact data must carry. Both, to be sure, are based 
upon the judgment of the teacher; but in the tabulation 
of demerits we have nearly 100,000 immediate judg- 
ments, while in a discussion of the opinions expressed in 
the notes we have but a few, and they, liable to all the 
errors of introspection. 

The number of data considered in connection with the 
study of school children is by far the greatest of any 
class studied. The labor, too, of securing them was the 
most difficult, as the records were of such a character 
that many volumes had to be gone over in order to get 
the required information. 

REGISTRATION. This term, here used, is fully 
defined in Chapter V., so we can proceed immediately 
to its consideration. Of the entire number of 118,860 
days registration, the distribution by months was as fol- 
lows: January, 9,723; February, 8,811; March, 10,063; 
April, 10,041; May, 9,963; June, 9,833; July, 915; Au- 
gust, ; September 7,117; October, 11,149; Novem- 
ber, 9,816; December, 8,455. 

The difference in numbers is largely due to the vary- 
ing number of days in the different school months, 
though not wholly as is shown by Fig. 3, in which the 
relation is shown between the expected and the actual 
registration for each month. The expectancy for each 
month was taken as that percentage of the whole number 
of registrations, equivalent to the percentage of the 
school days of the year, occurring in the month. This 
shows that for the schools studied the greatest registra- 
tion is in the early spring, and again in the fall and 
winter to the Christmas recess ; while it falls during the 
months of January and February and at the end and the 



102 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



beginning of the school year. Although these studies 
were made for the large city schools, the conditions 
shown are practically those observed by every teacher. 

REGISTRATION 

JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT.. NOVT DEC. 





























































\ 


\ 




/ 































Figure 3 

The sudden drop for May is perhaps not readily ac- 
counted for; but the departure for the country and the 
sea-shore and the late returning in the fall make plain 
those for July and September. The weather is prob- 
ably accountable for the deficient registration in the 
winter only. 

ATTENDANCE. Each of the figures illustrating 
the text of this chapter shows a curve for attendance 
which is not computed as are the others, with reference to 
expectancy. With this curve, the actual percentage of 
absentees is expressed for each condition, the distance of 
the curve below the horizontal datum line showing this. 
This plan was followed with the belief that this fact 
would be of more interest to the reader, especially if he 
be a teacher, than other values which would be purely 
relative. 

Occurrence. From this curve (Fig. 4) it will be 
seen that there was a large number of absences for Jan- 
uary (10.7%), a gradually lessening number through 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 



103 



April (7.5), an increase for May (8.8), and the maxi- 
mum for the school year in June. 

Beginning in September with a considerable number 
(9.6), the minimum for the year is in October (5.4), 
and about the same for the next two months as for April 
and May. There seems to be nothing at all peculiar 



30% 
20% 
10% 


10% 
20°^ 
30?, 
40% 
50^& 
§0% 





JAN. 


FEB. 


MAR. 


APR. 


MAY 


OCCURRENCE 

JUNE JULY AUG. 


SEPT. 


OCT. 


NOV, 


DEC. 


30% 
20% 
10 % 












A 






















/ 


A 
















/\ 






/ 


\ 














/ 


/ N 


V 




/ 




\ 














10% 






/ 

J 






\ 
\ 






\ 




, — I 


il~- 






2.0% 
30% 
40% 
50% 
60% 


1 






\ 
\ 


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\ 




1 

f 
















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i 
1 








































































1 









-ATTENDANCE NEW YORK CITY 

■DEPORTMENT „ 

DEPORTMENT DENVER* COLO, 

Figure 4 



about the curve; in fact, it shows just about what the 
experience of a teacher would lead him to expect. When 
school-work is well under way in the early fall, it is, I 
believe, always more carefully attended to by the pupil 
than in any other time of the year. Late fall and early 
winter undoubtedly present more climatic difficulties to 
attendance than does the late spring; but as laxness 



104 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

in attendance has not yet developed, the showing is about 
the same. The bad weather of winter enforces irregu- 
larity on the part of many; and this factor, once intro- 
duced, tends to stick for the rest of the year, even though 
excuses because of weather conditions are not so valid. 
This curve shows for the very end of the year the same 
irregularity that was indicated by the registration. In 
the latter case, staying at home was officially sanctioned ; 
in the showing for this class of data it was not. 

Temperature. The attendance curves, in their rela- 
tion to the various meteorological conditions, can be con- 
sidered as throwing some light upon the effects of those 
conditions upon the health of the pupils. We cannot 
suppose that weather conditions, unless they be those of 
precipitation and perhaps very low temperature, present 
any great difficulties to school attendance, unless it be 
through inducing a state of ill health. We cannot sup- 
pose a parent would keep a child at home simply because 
the barometer was low or the humidity high, even if 
those facts were known. There are many good reasons, 
to be sure, why a child should be kept at home on a certain 
day, and it might happen that that day was one of 
peculiar meteorological conditions; but we have a right 
to suppose that for the 108,020 pupil days considered 
such accidental coincidences would correct each other's 
effects. If, then, there be any noticeable relations be- 
tween fluctuations in attendance and meteorological con- 
ditions, the inference seems valid that the conditions were 
attended by physical indisposition or a state of low vital- 
ity on the part of the child. The temperature curve 
(Fig. 5) shows that there is a fluctuation in attendance 
with respect to the conditions indicated. The maximum 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 



105 



number of absentees (15%) is shown for the lowest 
temperature group. As has been suggested, this per- 
haps indicates no prevailing condition of ill-health, but 
an unwillingness on the part of the parent to trust the 
child out of doors in such intense cold. The decrease, 
however, for temperature above daily mean of 60° may- 
indicate the relaxing effect of great heat, which is fully 





p 


10 \ 


TEMPERATURE 
5 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 


'30% 














































\ 












A 
















20% 

10/o 










N 


i 
\ 






, 


"7 


L -\ 


\/ 


k 






















\ 

\ 






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/ 




V 






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\ 


V 


A 




X 




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V 


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\ 








































\ 






































\ 











































30% 
20% 

o 

1054 
20% 

30% 
405^ 
50< 



-ATTENDANCE 
-DEPORTMENT 
..DEPORTMENT 

Figure 5 



NEW YORK CITY 



DENVER. COLO. 



recognized and plainly shown by curves for other classes 
of data. It seems improbable that parents would fear 
the effects of temperature of the group 65° to 70° upon 
a healthy child, and thus keep him at home; yet under 
those conditions of temperature we have the second 
largest percentage of absentees. This is an interesting 
fact when we consider that those unseasonably hot days 
of spring and fall, which will be shown to have such a 
marked effect upon the crime of assault, are of the 
character indicated by this group. There seems little 
doubt that they lessened the vitality ©f the child, and 



106 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



that he was at home being nursed by a fond mamma. 
The maximum of attendance is indicated by the groups 
45° to 60°. 

It is very likely that fluctuations in some of the curves 
may be caused by accidental conditions which cannot, in 
this study, be discovered, and that only general tenden- 
cies in a curve have any value ; yet when we note that the 
most bracing days of our winter climate, those days 
when the cold is invigorating without being intense, 
when the streets are dry even though there be snow upon 
the ground, are of just this character, we are inclined to 
doubt whether accident be the sole cause of the full 
school-room. 

Barometer. An inspection of this curve (Fig. 6) 
discloses the fact that attendance was relatively poor 
during both extremes of the barometric register, and at 
its best when the barometer was a little above its normal 

BAROMETER 
29.1 29.2. 29.3 29.4 29.5* 29.6 2'9,,7 29.8 29.9 3'Q. 30.1 8:0.2 30.3 30.4 



20% 
10% 



10% 
20% 
30% 













\ 
— *— 










/ 

i 




















\ 






A 




I 

i 
i 




















i 






'\ 


i 
























\ 
\ 






V 
























\ 

V 

\ 




/ 


/ \ 
























»-_ 




— f 




\ 


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V 











10% 

10% 

o ^ 

10^ 
20°< 
30% 



.ATTENDANCE 
_DEPORTK*ENT 
...DEPORTMENT 



NE.W'YORK CITY 



DENVER, C.OLOi 



Figure 6 

mean. Its fluctuations for the groups between 29.40 
and 29.60, so far as I am able to judge, are accidental in 
their origin. Reference to the chart of Monthly Means 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 107 

(Fig. 2) shows us that the barometer is normally high 
for the fall and winter months, and low for those of the 
rest of the year. There is here no constant relation 
shown between high and low barometric readings and 
the barometer for those months of the year in which 
attendance was greatest, by which the peculiarities of 
this curve can be accounted for ; and our conclusion must 
be that the barometric conditions themselves, or the 
meteorological influences which vary with them, affected 
the children in such a way as to make it impossible for 
them to attend. As the barometer is usually low during 
storms, as well as just preceding them, it may be the 
latter which were really the affective agents, though 
showing upon this curve because of the coincidence of 
conditions. It is a well-known fact that for some little 
time before storms of unusual violence, sometimes as 
much as forty-eight hours, a condition exists which 
strongly affects many people both physiologically and 
mentally. Persons afflicted with rheumatism and gout, 
and even those troubled with corns, seem to have intima- 
tion through the affected parts of the approaching 
atmospheric disturbances, and it does not seem improb- 
able that children may in some way be influenced. 

Humidity. This curve (Fig 7) also shows accom- 
panying variation in school attendance. Disregarding 
slight fluctuations, we have twice the number of absentees 
when humidities are very low or very high, as for certain 
intermediate conditions. It is not hard to account for 
the decrease in attendance for the higher readings, as 
they invariably accompany precipitation. Besides this, 
the de-energizing effects of the high humidities accom- 
panied by high temperatures are recognized; although 



108 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



the fact fails to show itself fully, it is illustrated by 
certain curves discussed in the chapter treating of the 




40 y, 



40% 



.ATTENDANCE 
.DEPORTMENT 
DEPORTMENT 



NEW YORK CITY 
DENVER, COLO. 



Figure 7 

death-rate. If, however, the combination has influenced 
this curve, it would be through conditions of health, indi- 
cating that the children were at home suffering from 
ailments due to the low conditions of vitality induced. 
The decrease in attendance indicated for the lower 
humidities is not easily accounted for by any regularly 
accompanying conditions of the weather which would 
present physical difficulties to getting out. Storms are 
rarely known for such conditions. We cannot, how- 
ever, doubt an adverse effect, for the other curves upon 
the chart indicate an excess of abnormalities in conduct. 
This matter will be taken up with more detail in the 
discussion of the curves for Denver, which show such 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 109 

peculiar results for abnormally low humidities ; but there 
seems little doubt that the uniformly increased electrical 
potential of dry air is the cause. 

It has been demonstrated 1 that for every point upon 
the surface of the earth there are lines of electrical force 
radiating outward into space, generally negative in 
quality at the surface, gradually decreasing in potential 
and terminating in an electrification of the other quality 
at some unknown distance in space. It is also a well- 
known fact to scientists that the potential of these lines 
of force is much greater when the air is dry than when 
it is moist; when the humidity is great, practically dis- 
appearing; but when it is low, attaining a great magni- 
tude. The exact physiological effects of this highly 
electrified state of the atmosphere have not all been 
determined, but it is certain that it induces a state of 
nervous tension which any one who has lived in an exces- 
sively dry climate cannot have failed to notice. Upon 
the arid plains of some of our more elevated Western 
States, Colorado, Wyoming, and Utah, especially, it is 
a factor which affects the emotional condition of the 
people in no small way, and undoubtedly has brought 
about the excessive rise in the curves for the Denver 
data, as shown upon this chart. Although the electrifi- 
cation is usually less for cities than for the country, 
and is never excessive for climates as humid as that of 
New York, yet it may have had its effects upon the 
curve under consideration. If so, it would indicate that 
the children were at home suffering from nervous condi- 
tions which seemed to the parents to warrant missing 
school for the day. 

1 See Smithsonian Report, 1895, p. 90 et seq. 



110 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



Wind. The attendance curve (Fig. 8) for this at- 
mospheric condition shows no important variations ex- 
cept for very low and very high movements. The latter 
is easy to account for on the supposition that during a 
hurricane — such as a movement above 700 miles for the 
day — the children were kept at home because of the 
physical difficulty of getting about. It does not seem 

WIND 

100 ISO '200 250 300 350 400 4.50 500 550 600 6-50 700 750 800 




NEW YORK CITY 



-ATTENDANCE 
•D.EPO.RTMENT >» 

DEPORTMENT DENVER, OOLO, 

Figure 8 



probable, however, that the decreased number in attend- 
ance for days on which there existed a virtual calm can 
be thus accounted for. This it seems to me, must be an 
indication of disastrous effect of the condition upon 
health. 

With regard to the effect of calms upon health, so far 
as I know, the only thing published is by F. A. R. 
Russell, vice-president of the Royal Meteorological 
Society, 1 in which he states the results of a study made 

1 Smithsonian Report, 1895, p. 294. 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 



111 



of the relation between the death rate in London and the 
prevalence of low wind velocities. The conclusion of 
this study, briefly stated, is that the death rate for that 
city is considerably larger during months having many 
calm hours than for the months next following; or for 
the same month in other years when the number of calm 
hours is materially less. To give an example from his 
figures of the period from November, 1872, till Decem- 
ber, 1893: "On the whole, the mortality is greater for 
calm than for windy weather, and there is much less 
variation in the death rate during the prevalence of 
strong winds than during the prevalence of gentle winds 
and calms." 

Although these figures are for the death rate, and that 
is in no sense a factor in our study of school attendance, 

CHARACTER OF DAY AND PRECIPITATION 

FAIR PT.CL'DY. CL'DY. NONE +.01 



)0% 



10V 



20^ 



\ \ 

\ 
\ 
\ 

. 

\ 



\Q% 















^^ 









10% 



10% 



20% 



ATTENDANCE NEW YORK CITY 
DEPORTMENT 
DEPORTMENT DENVER, COLO. 

Figure 9 



io?J 



still the latter is an element which varies with conditions 
of health, and may be taken as an indication of its state. 
It has also been shown that during conditions of calm the 
number of disease germs in the air is much greater, espe- 



112 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

cially in large cities, than under other conditions; but 
since few germs are known to produce sickness upon the 
same day as taken into the system, this fact need not here 
be taken into consideration. 

Character of the Day. We cannot be certain that 
more is indicated by this curve (Fig. 9) than the direct 
effect upon attendance, of the physical difficulties of 
getting about during storms. Possibly the difference 
between the attendance on fair and on partly cloudy 
days is due in part to fear of a storm on the part of the 
parent, as indicated by the weather conditions ; although 
days characterized under the latter head might be stormy 
at the beginning of the session, and hence prevent at- 
tendance. The exact differences between days of the 
three characters may be seen from Fig. 9. 

Precipitation. Nothing more need be said under 
this head than is included in the preceding. 

DEPORTMENT. The attempt to discover the 
effect of the weather upon the children of the public 
schools, as shown by their deportment, was the first phase 
of the present problem undertaken. Indeed, in its incep- 
tion it was the only study anticipated. As the work went 
on, however, the field broadened, and, one after another, 
interesting subjects of a cognate character presented 
themselves, until various classes of data mentioned in 
Chapter V were included. The general opinions of 
members of the teaching profession upon the subject 
have been treated in the earlier pages of this volume, so 
we shall proceed at once to an inductive study of the data 
presented. 

Occurrence. In the peculiar fluctuations of this 
curve (Fig. 4) we unquestionably have more strongly 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 113 

shown evidences of the force of other conditions than 
the meteorological. Certainly general tendencies which 
might be pointed out are due to the latter; but the 
peculiar ups and downs are largely due to practices and 
customs associated with school management. A glance 
at the curve shows a somewhat gradual increase in the 
number of demerits (it seems probable that excess for 
February is accidental) from the beginning of the year 
to June, in which month a very marked drop takes 
place. Again, at the beginning of the school year in 
September we have the deficiency still greater, with 
practically an equal number for October, November and 
December. The regular increase toward the hotter 
months is in accord with the showing made by other 
classes of data, and is undoubtedly due to the gradually 
increasing temperature; but the deficiencies for July 
and September are not to be accounted for in that way. 
Were it not for the fact that all the conditions under 
deportment are studied with reference to attendance 
rather than registration, we might conclude that the 
small number of demerits given was due to a small at- 
tendance ; but since the small number of school days for 
these months is taken into consideration we find no 
solution on that ground. 

An explanation which seems to me most probable, 
and which will, I think, appeal to all teachers on careful 
thought, is one based upon the standard of discipline set 
for different parts of the school year. At the beginning 
it takes some little time for the routine to become rigid, 
and a laxness is allowed which would not be tolerated 
during other months. I believe also that at the end 
there is a like decrescendo in severity. A teacher recog- 



114 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



nizes the fact that in the few days remaining a misde- 
meanor cannot become habitual and rather than end the 
year with trouble she lines her path and that of her 
pupils with roses, by overlooking many things. Both 
of these tendencies would lessen the number of demerits, 
and we here have indications of the fact. It is not cer- 
tain that the slight excess in the number of demerits for 
the last three months of the calendar year is brought 
about by the meteorological conditions. The heavy 
horizontal expectancy curve is in a sense an average for 
all the occurrences studied, and any condition forcing 
the curve either up or down must be compensated for by 
an opposite showing in some other point. The excesses 
for these three months may be due to the fact that the 
normal, or expectancy, has been so affected by the forced 
deficiency for the beginning and end of the school year 
as to leave the curve elevated at the other points, with 
the results noted. This factor of compensation is one 
common to all the curves. 





mom 


DEPORTMENT BY DAYS OF THE WEEK 

TUE. WED, THUR, 


FR1i 














«20 













Figure 10 

The occurrence of demerits for the days of the school 
week is shown upon Figure 10. It indicates a deficiency 
of 5 per cent, for Friday, and a compensating excess 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 115 

distributed quite evenly for the other days of the week, 
though a little the greatest for Tuesday. Somewhat 
surprised at the fact that Friday should have been such 
a perfect day in deportment, I studied the data a little 
more closely, and discovered that it was brought about by 
the dominating influence of one school from which about 
80 per cent, of the data had been collected. The other 
three schools studied showed Friday to have been the bad 
day of the week, but the excessive "goodness" of the chil- 
dren of this school had entirely negatived the result. 
Upon questioning the principal of the larger school in 
regard to Friday's program and a possible explanation, 
an interesting solution of the mystery was disclosed. The 
principal said that good order was maintained largely 
through an emulation on the part of the pupils to secure 
honorable mention at the close of Friday's session for 
the best deportment in the room for the week. Also, 
that the pupils were conscious that the teachers were on 
that day considering the honor roll for the week, and it 
seemed probable that they were all doing their best in 
the hope that, because of their perfection for that day, 
misdeeds of the earlier days of the week would be over- 
looked, and so the coveted prize won. It was also stated 
that the school session was one hour shorter on Friday 
than on any other school day. Both of these causes 
would have their effects upon the curve, though the latter 
would have been equally potent for any of the schools 
studied. 

Occurrence — Denver. The monthly occurrence 
curve for Denver (Fig. 13) shows all the peculiarities of 
that for New York, except that of increased disorder with 
the approach of the heated season. The school year is 



116 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

considerably shorter, practically closing with May, in- 
stead of extending into July, though it begins somewhat 
earlier in September. We note the same excess for 
February, which in the case of the curve for New York 
was attributed to accident. Coincidences of this sort 
would argue definite causes which were common to both 
places ; but what they really are it is not easy to see. For 
Denver the wind, which is high for the month, might be 
a factor ; but if so, we should expect a still greater effect 
for the month of March, when it is still higher. This, 
however, is not indicated. The lack of increase in the 
number of misdemeanors for the heated months tallies 
to an extent with the showing of the temperature curve, 
discussed in the next paragraph. There we see that 
high temperature indicates a deficiency of the data con- 
sidered. 

Temperature. The seeming effect of temperature 
upon the children in the public schools both of New 
York and Denver, as shown by their deportment, is 
different in some respects from its effect upon any of 
the classes of adults studied. I believe, however, it can 
be shown that the conditions under which we are study- 
ing them are sufficiently unlike to account for at least a 
great part of the differences in their curve. Reference 
to the temperature chart (Fig. 5) shows a less number 
of demerits for temperatures below 45°, an excess for 
the groups up to 65°, and again a deficiency for those 
which are higher. The lessened number for all the low 
degrees is fully in accordance with all the results of 
studies of the effect of cold climates upon physical and 
mental activities, and is suggested by the occurrence 
curve, already discussed. It is a well recognized fact 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 



117 



that under conditions of low temperature so large a 
portion of the vital energy is consumed in keeping the 
body sufficiently warm to allow a continuance of its 
metabolic processes, that little is available for deport- 
mental excesses, and a condition of comparative lethargy 
exists. With an increasing warmth in the atmosphere 
this energy is diverted into other channels, and its expend- 
iture is made known in more conspicuous ways. Nearly 
all the curves upon the temperature chart show this fact. 
Temperatures above 65° show the opposite effect upon 
the school children only, by decreasing either the energy 



e* 


©5 


66 


67 


63 


TEMPERATURE OF SCHOOL ROOM 

6.9 70 71 72 73 74 75 


76 


77 


78 


79 


80 






































A 
































/ 


s 


\, 


f 










'V 


s/ 








> 


\ 




/ 






V 
























\ 


\/ 


f 





































Figure 11 

at command or the irritability which shows itself in bad 
conduct. Upon noting the material deficiency of de- 
portmental excesses under very high temperature both 
for New York and Denver — for the latter place to the 
extent of 300 per cent. — it occurred to me that it might 
be due to a difference between the temperature in the 
schoolrooms and those recorded at the Weather Bureau. 
The school buildings of the city are large and well 
ventilated and even in summer are comparatively cool, 
so it seems quite probable that the contrast on a summer 
day with the excessive heat without might have a quiet- 
ing effect which would be noticeable in the curves. The 



118 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

fact that the temperature of each school-room is taken 
three times during each day's session, once at 10.30 a. m., 
once at 1.30 p. m., the beginning of the afternoon period, 
and again at 3.30, and that these readings were recorded 
in the registers placed at my disposal, made possible a 
study which has thrown some light upon the questions. 
The curve upon Fig. 11 gives the result. In this curve, 
as in all the others, expectancy was computed by refer- 
ence to the number of times the different temperatures, 
indicated at the top, occurred. It will be noticed that 
most of the marked fluctuations of the curve are for tem- 
peratures for which the number is odd rather than even. 
This is undoubtedly brought about by the small number 
of data recorded under the former conditions, due to the 
fact that the thermometer scale is divided into units of 
two degrees each, and the great majority of the teachers 
recorded the temperature in the nearest even number. 
There is a great lack of regularity in the curve ; but if it 
shows anything, it is that for the highest temperatures 
recorded, which, in fact, run up only to 80°, there is a 
deficiency of demerits, while for those between 77° and 
69° (with the one exception of 73°, which is an odd 
number) there is again a deficiency. I do not consider 
this curve an especially valuable one, yet its indications 
are somewhat interesting because of their similarity to 
those of the temperature curve for the year — that is, an 
excess only for moderately high temperatures. From 
this fact, I would conclude that it was not wholly, if at 
all, the contrasting coolness of the school-room which 
kept the deportment good for the excessively hot day, 
but a relaxing effect, producing a low state of vitality 
which did not furnish sufficient energy to force an out- 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER H9 

put in frolicsomeness. This last is true both for unusu- 
ally high temperatures in the school-room and for the 
general meteorological condition; so much so for the 
latter, and so markedly in contrast with the curves for 
adults, as to lead one to conclude unquestionably that 
this effect of great heat is much greater upon the child 
than upon the adult. Whatever relation may exist 
between them in the quantity of energy each may have 
in reserve above what may be demanded under ordinary 
conditions, certain it is that in periods of excessive heat 
the surplus of the child seems to be exhausted much 
more quickly. This fact is borne out by the more rapid 
increase in the death rate of small children than of adults 
under high temperature, and, I believe, by our common 
observations in the matter. 

Temperature — Denver. In considering any of the 
classes of data for Denver, it must be borne in mind that 
the numbers are much less, because of the smaller popu- 
lation of the city, and on this account accidental influ- 
ences are much more liable to be effective and thus bring 
irregularities into the curves. We shall consider then 
that only general tendencies are valid, disregarding, for 
the most part, minor fluctuations. Attention should 
also be called to the larger meteorological groups made 
use of for most of the conditions. In the study of 
temperature, for instance, in New York, comparisons 
were made for each group of 5°, while for Denver 10° 
were taken as the unit. This is the case simply because 
the study for the latter city was the earlier one, and the 
larger groups made use of with the thought that they 
were exact enough. In attempting the more elaborate 
study for New York, it was thought best to divide the 



120 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

groups, even though the labor was thereby nearly 
doubled. Upon the charts the heavier of the vertical 
lines indicate the limits of the Denver groups. 

Upon inspection of the curve under consideration 
( Fig. 5 ) it will be seen that there is a general resemblance 
to the same curve for New York, though with an intensi- 
fication of the latter's results. The great excess for 
conditions of very low temperature is not valid, it seems 
to me, from the standpoint of meteorological effect: 
First, from the fact that the number of data for such 
temperatures is so limited as to make them very easily 
influenced by accident; and second, from the character 
of the data studied in Denver, such accident is very 
probable. Those data, it will be remembered (see page 
63) , were not the giving of demerits for bad deportment 
during the hours of the session, but the administration of 
corporal punishment for some misdemeanor of consider- 
able magnitude. Misdeeds quite as frequently occurred 
about the school building before and after the session as 
during its period, and in the winter months snow-balling 
and the accidents connected with it were very prolific 
sources of the youngster's tribulations. As this pastime 
could only be indulged in under the condition of temper- 
ature indicated by the lower part of the curves, and as 
there is not, perhaps, anything quite so seductive for 
other temperatures, its effect may have been consider- 
able. 

Even if we are correct in inferring that this is a factor, 
we cannot assert that it accounts for the entire excess in 
cold snaps. It does not seem impossible that the disre- 
gard of everything else, which we are conscious of when 
aching with cold, may have introduced conditions of 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 121 

disorder which could not be overlooked by the teacher, 
and so the number of castigations was augmented. The 
decrease under conditions of great heat may be accounted 
for in the same manner as the similar showing for New 
York, already discussed — that is, a contrasting cool- 
ness of the school-room with the atmosphere without, 
or the devitalizing effect of high temperatures, or both. 
The study of the temperatures of the New York school- 
rooms would lead us to believe the latter effect to be the 
more powerful, reducing the number of misdemeanors, 
under such conditions, three- fourths. 

Barometer. The effect of those conditions of the 
atmosphere revealed by different readings of the barom- 
eter, seems to be somewhat constant for all the classes of 
data (Fig. 6) . With the sole exception of the study of 
errors made by clerks in banks, that effect seems to be 
one of increase of all the occurrences for conditions of 
low barometer and a corresponding decrease for read- 
ings above the normal mean. Notwithstanding the fact 
that the pressure of the atmosphere, varying as it does 
for a given locality, has been considered by many a 
great force in disturbing the mental equilibrium of the 
people, I believe, as has already been stated, that it does 
so largely through its production of other states of 
weather, which are themselves the efficient cause. This 
is not true, for the other meteorological conditions, as 
temperature, humidity and wind, have their effects per 
se. As stated under the discussion of attendance, from 
the standpoint of our present study the barometer is 
most interesting in its relation to other conditions of 
weather which are themselves influential. Those upon 
which its variations have a causal effect are the character 



122 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

of the day and precipitation, and this relation is very 
interesting. Conditions of low barometer are usually 
the accompaniment of storms, although a careful study 
of this relation for several years shows that when a 
storm is of several days' duration the period of depres- 
sion exists only for a short portion of the time. That is, 
although it is practically true that all days on which the 
barometer is low are stormy days, not all stormy days 
are those of low barometer. Now, although the curve 
under consideration shows an excess of demerits for low 
barometers, those for character of the day and precipi- 
tation (considered in full later) show a deficiency of 
them both for cloudy days and for those on which there 
is rain or snow. Our conclusion from this must be, then, 
that the demerits which have brought the curve above the 
expectancy for low barometers must have been given on 
the particular stormy days which presented those condi- 
tions, while stormy days when the barometer was higher 
were sufficiently free from demerits to force their aver- 
age below the expectancy and give us a deficiency for 
the condition as a whole. The general tendency of this 
curve for the school children compared with the others, 
all of which are for adults, would lead us to believe that 
the effect of the condition, whether immediate or second- 
ary, is less upon children than upon adults. We must, 
however, take into consideration the fact that all these 
conclusions, which we are imputing to the effects of 
weather upon the children, may be little more than their 
effects upon their teacher. 

The award of demerits is, of course, made in accord- 
ance with the judgment of the teacher, and a fluctuating 
criterion or a judgment warped by subjective emotional 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 123 

abnormality would give us the same results as a valid 
judgment of an affected object. 

Barometer — Denver. Low barometers bear the 
same relation to the occurrence of misdemeanors for the 
climate of Denver that we have noted for New York, 
except that the effect seems to be intensified. For high 
readings it seems to be reversed, and at that end of the 
curve we again have an excess. The conditions of at- 
mospheric pressure are, however, very different for the 
two places ; for we must, in reading the exact height of 
the mercurial column for Denver, subtract five inches 
from the readings given at the top of each column. 
There seems to be nothing new to be said with respect to 
this curve. 

Humidity. The general tendency of this curve ( Fig. 
7) is to indicate an excess of demerits for conditions of 
low humidity, compared with the numbers shown for a 
moist air. Comparing it with the curves of the other 
classes of data, in which an emotional state affecting 
conduct can be considered a factor (Assault, Peniten- 
tiary and Insane) , we find this tendency less marked for 
the children than for the adults. Judging from the 
answers to the questionaire with respect to the effects 
of "muggy" and "sticky" weather, I am inclined to 
think that this showing will be something of a surprise. 
The curves mentioned resemble each other so closely in 
their general tendencies that when we consider that 
nearly 100,000 data were made use of in their construc- 
tion, we can hardly doubt their validity. Of the special 
curve under consideration, the marked fluctuations for 
both the end groups may or may not be due to accident. 
That of the group A5-.50 is much more liable to be so 



124 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

than one at the other extreme, for less data were consid- 
ered in computing its position than for the latter. The 
curve coincides wholly with the condition which we find 
for character of the day and precipitation, as all these 
show deficient numbers of data for conditions of mois- 
ture. Our inference from this curve must be that ex- 
cessive restlessness, together with those activities of 
mind and body which in the judgment of the teacher 
constitute disorder, increase with increasing dryness. 
Yet a dry atmosphere is recognized the world over as a 
vitalizing one, having the bracing properties which we 
all recognize in certain characteristics of weather. A 
logical conclusion for the two conditions stated, is that 
bracing conditions of atmosphere and an excess of activ- 
ity accompany one another, or, to carry the logical pro- 
cess a little further, that those activities depend upon and 
are the result of excessive vitality. 

In arriving at conclusions thus, by an inductive pro- 
cess, we are not, of course, supposing that every individ- 
ual of the aggregate is subject to this law. There may 
be many whom such a vitalizing effect would rouse only 
from a chronic state of physical and mental lethargy to 
a condition common to the rest under less stimulating 
conditions ; but for the pupils as a whole the conclusions 
are valid. Interviews which I have had with many 
teachers upon the subject have tended to corroborate 
the view taken. They say that two tendencies on the 
part of the pupil are to be combated — inattention and 
roguishness ; and, however differing might be the views 
of individuals with regard to the distribution of the lat- 
ter, the former was more prevalent, they thought, on 
stormy and wet days. The present study would tend to 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 125 

prove roguishness more common when the weather is 
dry and clear. This is noticeable when we consider that 
lapses of attention would not be so apt to influence the 
giving of demerits as conduct that was objectively bad. 
The sins recorded there are those of commission rather 
than of omission, as inattention would affect the class- 
standing rather than the record of deportment. 

The cause of the exhilarating effect of a dry atmos- 
phere seems to be the increased electrical condition ac- 
companying it; but since this is much more markedly 
shown for the climate of Denver, we shall discuss it in 
the next paragraph. The sudden increase in the num- 
ber of demerits awarded for the highest group of humid- 
ities is not wholly due to accident. It seems to me 
probable that we may attribute it to an utter lack of the 
power to inhibit, brought about by the relaxing effects 
of such an atmosphere. We have all recognized, I 
think, in ourselves or in others, a mental state brought 
about by weakening and relaxing influences in which 
any impulse was followed by its motor realization sim- 
ply through an inability to control. The threshold of 
such a condition seems to be fairly well definable and not 
at all gradual. It comes after those stages of relaxation 
in which there is scarcely enough energy left to initiate 
activity, and generally shows itself in a condition of 
excessive nervous irritability. Although the other curves 
for data of this nature do not show it, and our conclu- 
sions may not be well grounded, still the possibility is, I 
believe, worthy of mention. 

Humidity — Denver. Figure 6, which shows the 
influence of this meteorological condition, is not so con- 
structed as to exhibit this curve in full for want of space, 



126 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

since if it did, it would have to be ten times as high as it 
is represented. The seeming effects of extremely small 
humidities, from ten to forty-five, is most startling, 
giving us an excess of floggings for the Denver school 
children of 400 per cent. When we consider that this 
means that for the fourteen years studied, the days on 
which the humidity showed a mean of below 30 had four 
times as many punishable misdemeanors as the law of 
numerical probability would lead us to expect, we cannot 
doubt the effect of such conditions, especially when the 
three curves show the same effect in different magni- 
tudes. 

To one who has lived in Colorado and has experienced 
these conditions, indicated by the lower end of the curve, 
the results, although perhaps surprising, are still fully 
credible. The effect upon the school children, and, in- 
deed, upon the people as a whole, is easily recognizable, 
and has been alluded to in the answers to the question- 
able coming from Colorado. The effect seems to be, 
primarily, an excessive stimulus to nervous discharge. 
The low humidity common to Colorado and the higher 
altitudes (see Fig. 7) makes this condition, to an extent, 
a permanent one, and has been alluded to in Chapter VI. 
But even the chronic state of neurosis prevailing under 
normally low conditions of humidity is capable of inten- 
sification under those still lower, and these are what our 
curves give us. By "the chronic state of neurosis" re- 
ferred to, I do not mean a pathological condition, but a 
slightly increased nervous tension which all except the 
strongest and most phlegmatic feel. It shows itself 
frequently in mild insomnia or an occasional irritability 
of disposition, though not in melancholia. Even the 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 127 

horses are not free from the influence, and seem to be 
more nervous and excitable than their species in lower 
altitudes. This has been especially noticeable in highly 
bred horses which have been brought to Denver and 
Colorado Springs for track purposes. Not infrequent- 
ly the effect has been such as to give their trainers much 
anxiety as to their ability to control them at all under 
the super-exciting conditions of the race. When, how- 
ever, both with racing horses and human athletes, the 
effect has not been sufficient to bring on other complica- 
tions, the available energy for rightly directed motor 
discharge has been increased, and some astonishing 
records are the result. The effect upon the mental 
worker is also recognizable. Work is, for the most 
part, turned off under higher pressure, with the neces- 
sary consequence that it generally cannot be so long 
maintained without a resulting condition of partial col- 
lapse ensuing, which demands a brief sojourn at a lower 
altitude for its relief . Ministers, teachers, lawyers and 
professional men generally feel this especially, and 
recognize the necessity of longer vacations than were 
needed by them when working at lower altitudes. The 
school year is shortened in accordance with this require- 
ment/and even then the mental collapse of both pupil 
and teacher is usually greater than that felt by them at 
the conclusion of the longer school year in a more humid 
climate. 

These effects are, I believe, not the results of dry air 
per se, but of its universally accompanying electrical 
condition. As was stated in Chapter VI., the earth, for 
its entire surface, has been found to be charged with 
static electricity of a negative character. This is not 



128 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

supposed to be a property of the earth itself, but to be 
generated by the fricton of objects on its surface and of 
air particles set in motion by the wind, under a discussion 
of which condition we shall again allude to it. 

It is also supposed that the potential of this static 
charge at the surface of the earth is directly proportional 
to the non-conductivity of the surrounding atmosphere. 
If this were an absolute non-conductor, its effect would 
be similar to that of the glass of a Leyden jar, the earth 
representing one of the tinfoils of the jar and the clouds 
representing the other; but the properties of electrical 
conduction of the atmosphere decrease with its moisture 
or humidity, with the necessary consequences that those 
portions of the earth's surface which are insulated by a 
very dry atmosphere are continually being charged with- 
out being able to discharge convectively their burden to 
the clouds, or the higher strata of air which contain elec- 
tricity of the opposite character. As a consequence, 
those regions where the humidity is low are normally 
more highly charged electrically than regions where 
the conditions of humidity are the opposite, and those 
regions themselves vary with respect to the poten- 
tial of their charge as the humidity varies, the 
potential being strongest where the humidity is lowest. 
Actual experiment has proved that this potential is 
sometimes very high. Professor Arthur Schuster, F. 
It. S., 1 says of it: "The strength of this electric field 
is not at all insignificant. If we wish to produce it arti- 
ficially, between two parallel plates kept one foot apart, 
we should have to apply an electro-motive force suffi- 
cient, and sometimes more than sufficient, to light up the 

1 Smithsonian Report, 1895. 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 129 

incandescent lights of our dwellings. The electric force 
is comparatively weak in our country (England), but 
50 volts per square foot are constantly observed, and 100 
volts are not uncommon ; but in drier climates the amount 
of force may be considerably in excess of these figures" 
The latter condition is certainly experienced in Colo- 
rado ; though, as far as I know, no definite experiments 
have been made there to determine its magnitude. Al- 
though the electrical condition is observed for the sur- 
face of the earth, objects upon its surface would have a 
still higher charge. The increased tension for the static 
charge for projections or points upon the surface of the 
conductor is well known, and a human being or any other 
object upon the surface of the earth under such electri- 
cal conditions would show more than the full potential 
of its support. This tendency of the static charge to 
rush to points on the surface and thus discharge itself 
by convection gives rise to the phenomena of St. Elmo's 
Fire, or the so-called Castor and Pollux of the ancients, 
and also curious electrical manifestations sometimes 
observed on the summits of high mountains. It has been 
observed that the electrical potential of the air is less in 
the vicinity of larger towns and cities than in the open 
country, especially if it be free from woods. This is 
due in part to the effect of the numerous points pre- 
sented by the buildings of the city, but still more largely, 
in all probability, to the discharging effects of the gases 
and columns of heated air arising from fires. Professor 
Schuster, in the paper already referred to, mentions the 
effects of these results of combustion, and concludes 
that their influence in reducing the potential in thickly 

settled regions must be tremendous. He says: "It 
10 



130 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

follows that every fire burnt on the surface of the earth, 
and every chimney through which products of combus- 
tion pass, act like very effective lightning conductors, 
and would consequently discharge, slowly but surely, 
any electrification of the surface of the earth. The 
peculiar immunity of factory chimneys against damage 
by lightning appears from statistics collected by Hell- 
man in Schleswig-Holstein, for which, while 6.3 churches 
per thousand were struck, and 8.5 windmills, the number 
per thousand for factory chimneys was 0.3. It will be 
noted that although the action of lightning is mentioned 
in this quotation, the electrical conditions of the atmos- 
phere which we have been considering are those normally 
prevailing without lightning or any visible electric phe- 
nomena. During a thunderstorm the potential of the 
earth's surface runs up to many times that of other occa- 
sions, but in the present study the mental effect of such 
conditions will not be considered. They are not fre- 
quent enough in most localities to form an important 
factor in the cosmical environment ; and, moreover, dur- 
ing the occurrence of an electrical storm the whole emo- 
tional condition of the school is so affected by fear or 
awe in the presence of such tremendous phenomena that 
no demerits could, with justice, be awarded which could 
be used as data for an inductive study like this. 

In order to determine a little more exactly just what 
fixed relation exists between various meteorological con- 
ditions and the electrical potential of the atmosphere, I 
carried on the following simple investigation: 

The study is based entirely upon T. C. MendenhaH's 
"Reports of Studies of Atmospheric Electricity," which 
appeared in 1889 as a memoir of the National Academy 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 131 

of Sciences. This comprises all the work done by the 
Signal Service in an attempt to investigate the value 
of electrical observations as an aid to weather forecast- 
ing. The mass of material collected cannot fail to be 
of value for subsequent study. For the years 1882 till 
1889, stations were maintained for a part or all of the 
time at Washington, D. C, Baltimore, Md., Cambridge, 
Mass., New Haven, Conn., Ithaca, N. Y., and Colum- 
bus, Ohio, where, under competent observers, the 
electrical potential of the atmosphere was determined 
by means of very delicate and expensive instruments 
each day, at intervals varying from a few seconds to 
several hours. Of the many interesting facts brought 
to light by this study, I have used but one, the mean 
potential for each day as recorded at the Ithaca station. 
The records from this station were not chosen because 
they might prove more interesting than those from any 
other, but because they gave certain other meteorological 
data for each day which could be used for purposes of 
comparison. These appended data dealt only with the 
character of the day, the wind, and the precipitation. 
Neither the temperature, the barometer, nor the humid- 
ity were given, so that we have no data bearing upon 
them, except as the latter may be inferred from the 
character of the day. The study, as set forth in this 
paper, consisted simply of a tabulation of the mean 
potential for each day with reference to the other condi- 
tions given for the day, for the purpose of discovering 
under which of the latter the potential was normally 
high or low. As an illustration of the records from 
which I have worked, I give those of a few days from 
the Ithaca report: 



132 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 









June, 1887. 






Day 


9 a. m. 


11 a. m. 


1p.m. 3 p. m. 


Mean 


Remarks 


1 


203 


88 


14 139 


111 


Br. Cloudy. Rain 


2 


38 


—181 


258 95 


52 


Lt. Cloudy. Rain 


3 


—44 


11 


11 22 





Cloudy. 


4 


66 


9 


82 13 


41 


Fr. Clear. 


5 


137 


84 


71 126 


104 


Lt. Cloudy. 


6 


154 


137 


5Y 137 


121 


Lt. Rain. 



The numbers refer to the electrical potentials in volts, 
under "Remarks." The first abbreviations refer to the 
velocity of the wind, and have been interpreted for me 
into terms of miles. The other abbreviations indicate 
the character of the day and the precipitation. The 
means for each day represent the algebraic sum of the 
observations for the day. 

The following table shows the mean potential for each 
of the meteorological conditions alluded to in that col- 
umn in course of the report : 



Character of Day. 
Clear. Pt. cl'dy. Cloudy. 



93 



68 



56 



3-5 



Wind. 
6-14 15-29 



52 



126 | 151 



254 



Precipitation. 
None. Some. 



80 



52 



As may be seen by the table, the potential is the 
highest on clear days (93 volts) and those having con- 
siderable movement of the wind ( 254 volts for velocities 
of from 30 to 39 miles per hour) , decreasing as the mois- 
ture increases (52 volts on rainy days) , and as the wind 
subsides (52 volts for velocities of from 3 to 5 miles). 
The records did not furnish data for the determination 
of the potential, so this was approximated by taking the 
average of the potentials for clear and partly cloudy days. 

This study corroborates in a very decided manner the 
hypothesis stated both in the paper alluded to, and also in 
a more extended article on the same general subject. 

We cannot, however, claim for it a very broad bearing ; 
simply that the figures are true for a limited study made 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER I33 

from the records of a single station. That they would 
prove valid for any other locality, we cannot be certain. 
No electrical data are obtainable for New York City or 
Denver, Colo., — the cities to which my studies of the 
influence of the weather upon mental states have been 
limited; and as they can only be obtained by the use of 
very expensive instruments, are practically impossible, 
except under the direction of the Government. Until 
it is done, we must rest content with analogies based 
upon studies made elsewhere. 

In regard to the exact manner in which the electrical 
condition affects us little is known. Further study 
along the lines of electro-physiology and psychology 
may demonstrate this to a certainty ; but for the present 
we must satisfy ourselves with what little light we may 
show upon the magnitude of this effect alone. 

Wind. The effects of the wind upon the emotional 
states of the various classes of individuals as disclosed 
by this study have been something of a surprise. In 
spite of the fact that we so frequently hear people 
deploring conditions of considerable movement, and 
asserting that the wind "makes them nervous," the 
curves taken as a whole fail to show that high winds for 
the climate of New York have any effect disastrous to 
mental quietude. In fact, these effects seem to be the 
reverse, for, in spite of many fluctuations — increasing 
as the data for the groups becomes less — the general 
tendency of the curves is downward as they show in- 
creasing velocities from the 100-150 mile group. This 
is not so plainly marked for the curve under considera- 
tion (Fig. 8) as in some of the others for adults, yet that 
portion for movements above 500 miles indicates notice- 



134 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

ably less data than that for the 350 miles preceding. 
The marked deficiency for the lowest movements record- 
ed I am at a loss to account for, although it is much more 
fully discussed later in this volume. It cannot be dis- 
covered by studying the meteorological tables that such 
conditions are the usual accompaniments of other 
meteorological states which have shown a deficiency of 
data ; nor has it seemed to be a fact of general experience 
that days which were virtually without wind — as those 
registering less than 100 miles — have had a soothing 
influence. Yet the uniformity of the curves in this 
respect leaves no room for doubt. It may be that we 
have a solution in the relation which seems to exist be- 
tween conditions of calm and the vitality of human 
beings. We alluded in our discussion of attendance in 
the schools to discoveries with regard to these effects 
upon the death rate in London, and we have here evi- 
dence of an increase for days when the movement was 
very small. If, then, perfectly calm days have a devital- 
izing effect, in accordance with our theories already 
stated, that a certain excess of vitality is necessary to 
conduct warranting demerits, we might expect just the 
deficiency indicated by the curve. 

From the 150-200 groups, the curve shows a gradual, 
though slight increase in data till we reach the 500 mark, 
when it declines again, the excess for the highest move- 
ment being quite likely due to accident liable to the small 
number of data for the group. Any attempt to account 
for these peculiarities in the general tendency of the 
curve would be little more than guess-work, although 
several of the other curves show practically the same 
conditions. It would not seem improbable from their 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER I35 

showing that while very slight and very excessive move- 
ments affect the vital forces at command in a negative 
manner, the velocities between these extremes have an 
opposite effect, though not a very marked one, and for 
the latter condition alone do we have excess of the 
occurrences studied. 

Wind — Denver. . As was the case with the preceding, 
Figure 7 does not show the higher portion of the curve 
expressing the seeming influence of the wind upon the 
Denver school children. That portion of it which is 
shown, and the numbers at the top of the column for 
movements from 250 to 450 miles, show that its effect 
in such a climate is tremendous compared with what it 
is for New York. While those for the latter city do 
not diverge far from that of expectancy in the dry Col- 
orado climate, movements of only a moderate absolute 
velocity are accompanied by nearly five times ( +470% ) 
the normal number of misdemeanors in the public schools. 

A fact most surprising to one who has lived in that 
climate is disclosed by the chart of monthly means (Fig. 
1 ) . It is that the movement of the wind for the year is 
only about one-half what it is for New York. This 
seems hardly credible to a Coloradoan, for the severest 
criticism of his climate which he hears — indeed his own 
before he becomes so enthusiastic over its virtues as to 
fail to see its defects — was on this very score of wind. 
The curves under consideration, however, undoubtedly 
prove that he has been judging the velocity of the "Col- 
orado zephyrs" by the effect which they produce upon 
his mental state rather than by the anemometer record, 
and in this way has read into it a velocity which did not 
exist. 



136 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

By noting the wind groups covered by the Denver 
curves it will be seen that the greatest movements oc- 
curring for all the years studied were between 450 and 
500 miles, and though there was but a small fraction of 
one per cent, of such days, yet their effects, and those, 
in fact, of all movements above 250 miles were tremen- 
dous. The undoubted cause of this was alluded to in 
our discussion of the effects of low humidities in such a 
climate. That the wind alone is not productive of such 
results is shown by the study of its influence for the 
climate of New York. There, those velocities which are 
so disastrous for Denver seem productive of no mental 
effects whatever. 

As was said in the paragraph just referred to, the 
electrical potential at the earth's surface nominally 
increases in an inverse ratio to the humidity. It may 
also be said with just as much truth that, humidity re- 
maining the same, the electrical potential increases 
directly as the movement of the wind. The electrical 
state is in every respect one of static or frictional elec- 
tricity, and, just as in the physical laboratory, the elec- 
trophorus takes less rubbing or the plate machine fewer 
turns to become charged on a dry day than on a moist 
one, so in the dry climate of the west a moderate move- 
ment of the wind produces effects which no hurricanes 
can bring about in the relatively humid east. 

No very carefully tabulated data are required to dem- 
onstrate those effects in a qualitative way. When both 
conditions for producing the highest potential — that is, 
low humidity and high wind — come together, the effect 
upon the pupils in the schools is very noticeable. It is 
no uncommon thing to hear a teacher deploring the 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 137 

conditions because of the fact that she could "do nothing 
with the children." In looking over the monthly obser- 
vation sheets sent by a score or more of voluntary 
observers in the State of Colorado to the office of the 
Weather Bureau at Denver, I was struck by the force 
of some of the comments which were frequently ap- 
pended. One made by a physician in one of the smaller 
mountain towns upon the point under discussion, was : 
"Humidity for the month very low, which has set up an 
electrical condition that has set every one to fussing and 
fighting." Although he has considered the conditions 
upon which he has so tersely commented as due entirely 
to the humidity, the wind is also a factor in their produc- 
tion, and his characterization of the effects is too good to 
be omitted. 

Character of the Day. Surprising as it may seem 
to the many who have expressed their opinions in answers 
to the questionaire sent out, on cloudy days the deport- 
ment in the school-room was better than on those of any 
other character, if we may judge by the number of 
demerits given. We might be inclined to be skeptical 
as to the validity of the curve, even though it be based 
upon the tabulation of 100,000 or more actual observa- 
tions, and still prefer conclusions from our experience, 
did not all the other curves (banks excepted) show a 
similar deficiency of the conditions studied for cloudy 
days. Whole articles have been written based upon the 
supposed observation that the devil openly stalks abroad 
on gloomy days, and that crimes are multiplied under 
such conditions. 

For the curve under consideration, partly cloudy days 
have quite a marked excess (9.8%) ; fair, about the 



138 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

expected number, and cloudy, the deficiency referred to. 

On the theory of deportment which we have made 
use of in discussing some of the other results we should 
account for this deficiency upon the relaxing or devital- 
izing influence of gloomy weather; that under such 
conditions the children as a class lacked the energy to 
become disorderly and were comparatively quiescent, 
even though they were not intellectually energetic 
enough to do their best work. If we had a special mark- 
ing system for inattention, or if I had been successful 
in obtaining the much desired daily marks for the class 
work, I am inclined to think that this hypothesis could 
have been proved. As it is the work remains to be done. 
Marks for deportment would not be likely to show such 
conditions, except in a negative way, and this, I think, 
we have here. 

The excess of demerits for partly cloudy days may be 
accounted for by taking into consideration the effect of 
different conditions of gloominess upon the emotions 
and the states of vitality. Cloudiness seems to indicate 
the negative character of the former, and to decrease 
the available quality of the latter. On fair days, then, 
although vitality would be at an excess, positive emo- 
tional states — or good nature — would so direct its motor 
output as to make conflict with the authority of the 
teacher not very liable. On partly cloudy days the 
available energy has only been lessened to a small ex- 
tent; but a markedly negative emotional condition has 
been brought about which directs that considerable 
quantum of available energy into motor channels that 
are disastrous to good conduct. On cloudy days, al- 
though the emotional state would bode trouble, energy 



THE CHILD AND THE WEATHER 139 

is lacking, and less active disorder is possible than when 
a moderate amount of both its elements is present. It 
may perhaps be argued that such an analysis is entirely 
unjustifiable; that the motives which influence the con- 
duct of the child cannot be reduced to the two-fold 
conflict of emotional quality and vital energy. Such a 
criticism may be entirely just, but will have weight in 
proportion to the validity of other hypotheses that may 
be brought forward to account for the conditions dem- 
onstrated by the data. 

Character of the Day — Denver. This curve 
(Fig. 8) so nearly coincides with the one just discussed 
for New York as to leave little to be said. The quieting 
effect of cloudy days for the Denver climate is much more 
decided, and is somewhat surprising to one who has expe- 
rienced it. Upon the basis of the compound influence of 
emotional states and vitality we must judge from this 
showing that for Denver the effect of cloudy weather 
was either less potent in negativing the emotional state, 
or more potent in depleting the vital reserve, or both. 
But both of these suppositions are contrary to conclu- 
sions which experience of the occasional cloudy days of 
the Denver climate would lead us to make. We seem 
to be conscious at such times of an especially depressing 
effect upon the spirits, though what the influence upon 
vitality may be is hard to state from introspection. The 
Denver curves for Suicide and Murder show an opposite 
effect for cloudy days from that indicated by this curve, 
and a fuller discussion of the probable causes will be 
given in the sections which treat of those classes of data. 

Precipitation. The relative number of demerits 
given upon rainy days and upon those in which there was 



140 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

no precipitation is what would be naturally expected 
from the study for the character of the day — that is, an 
excess for dry days, and a corresponding deficiency for 
rainy days. Since fair days are usually of the former 
character, and those on which there is precipitation of the 
latter, what has been said of them is valid for our present 
topic. 

Summary. Based upon the observation of the teach- 
ers, the deportment of the pupils is at its best during 
cold, calm and clear weather — at its worst during that 
characterized as hot and muggy. The opinion is also 
that boys are affected more than girls. 

As shown by the empirical study, school attendance — 
and we have argued that this is a measure of health — is 
at its best during the spring and autumn months, upon 
days of moderate temperature, when the barometrical 
readings are at neither extreme ; when the humidity and 
wind are moderate and upon "Fair," dry days. De- 
portment is at its best during the winter months and at 
the beginning and end of the school year ; when the tem- 
perature is either very low or very high; when the 
barometer is high; when the humidity is great; during 
condition of calm and upon cloudy, wet days. 



CHAPTER VIII 



CRIME AND THE WEATHER 

The literature of criminology is full of scientific at- 
tempts to analyze the complex mental states which give 
rise to excesses in conduct. They have received a micro- 
scopic scrutiny; and the influence of social condition, of 
race trait, of physical health, and many other factors 
which affect the prevalence of crimes of various classes 
have been somewhat carefully determined. The effect 
of weather conditions as a phase of the cosmical environ- 
ment has, however, for the most part, been overlooked. 
From the standpoint of climate and its general influence 
upon mental characteristics, the subject has been at- 
tacked, but the definite meteorological conditions, the 
innumerable combinations of which give us the ever- 
changing thing which we call weather, have hardly 
been scientifically considered in their causal relation to 
conduct. 

In this chapter, I shall attempt to do so through a 
discussion of classes of data designated as V., VI. and 
VII. (page 64) , considering the classes separately. The 
first of these, comprising roughly forty thousand cases 
of arrest for assault and battery (36,627 males, 3,134 
females) is illustrated by Figures 12 to 19. 

141 



142 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

ASSAULT. 1 This class of data furnishes one of our 
best means for studying the emotional states affecting 
conduct, and conclusions drawn from it should be more 
valid than those for some of the other classes, since the 
judgment as to what constitutes a datum is invariable 
throughout the period of study and holds for every day 
of the year. 

In the study for schools we found the teachers vary- 
ing materially from one another in their criterion of 
judgment, and we also noted differences in the days of 
the school week which seemed due to accidental condition 
not acting here. The hand of the law, however, is always 
stern and the unfeeling policeman is probably more reg- 
ularly severe than is the teacher. 

There are, however, certain changes in mode of life 
brought about by the different seasons of the year which 
might, irrespective of the direct effects of meteorolog- 
ical conditions influence the monthly occurrence of this 
class of data, but these will be spoken of under the head, 
"Occurrence" Yet there is one accidental effect which 
might well be spoken of here. It is the increase of 
arrests for assaults upon holidays and occasions of un- 
usual celebration in the city. Even political campaigns 
can be plainly determined from a study of the data 
alone, and the Christmas season deflects materially the 
occurrence curve. These accidental variations would tend 
to equalize each other's effects and to reduce the acci- 
dental error to a minimum; but when, as is occasionally 
the case, one of these exceptionally pugnacious days is 
one of unusual meteorological conditions — conditions oc- 

1 Wherever this term is used, it means the crime technically 
known as "Assault and Battery." 



CRIME AND THE WEATHER 



143 



curring but a very few times during the period studied 
— such a correction does not occur. 

As has before been explained, the heavy horizontal 
line upon the accompanying figures represents expect- 
ancy, and an excess or deficiency of arrests for any given 
meteorological condition by the distance of the curves 
above or below that line, each of the lighter horizontal 
lines representing twenty per cent. 

The entire curves ( ) are for males; the 

dotted curves ( - — ) for females. 

Occurrence, Male — -This curve, as can be seen by 
Figure 12, is most beautifully regular, showing a gradual 
increase from January, the coldest month, to July, the 



JAN. FEB. 



OCCURRENCE 
WAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT/ NOV. DEC. 



40% 
O'A 

















A 






















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20/$ 



ASSAULT AND BATTERY 



Figure 12' 



MALE 
FEMALE 



hottest month, and a decrease for the remainder of the 
year. In fact, it is very nearly identical with the curve 
of monthly means for temperature (see Fig. 1) , and one 
must conclude that temperature, more than any other 
condition, affects the emotional states which are con- 
ducive to fighting. It is possible that the greater pub- 



144 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

licity of life practiced in the summer time, when most of 
the people of the poorer classes are in the streets to escape 
the torture of the stifling rooms, would tend to bring to 
the notice of the police, altercations which, under the 
conditions of life in the winter time would have escaped 
them. If so, the curve would be affected. It seems 
very probable, too, that opportunities for fistic encoun- 
ters would be increased by summer customs, and this, too, 
prove a factor. However that may be, we cannot sup- 
pose any considerable part of the summer's excess and 
winter's deficiency due to these accidental causes, but for 
the most part to the weather conditions themselves. 

The curve for females compares in a very interesting 
way with the preceding in that the excess for the summer 
months is much greater than for the males, with a corre- 
spondingly greater deficiency for the winter. This is 
but a suggestion of what most of the curves show where 
a comparison of the two sexes is made, — namely, a 
greater susceptibility of women to weather influence. 
The unusual excess for the month of August, so much 
greater than the preceding month, which is really 
the hotter of the two, would seem to imply that there is 
a point in the endurance of heat at which "forbearance 
ceases to be a virtue," and after the months of June and 
July had been borne with some equanimity, the heat of 
August proved too much and its effects were noted in 
the police court. In a paper by S. A. Hill 1 some inter- 
esting statements are made bearing upon prevalence of 
crimes due to irritability of temper in India, and al- 
though the study is for both sexes, I mention it here. 

1 ' ' Effects of the weather upon Death Rate and Crime in In- 
dia." Nature, Vol. 29, p. 338. 



CRIME AND THE WEATHER 



145 



He has classed under this head both murder and suicide, 
explaining 1 that the latter is in India, as a rule, not the 
result of fixed melancholia, three-fourths of the cases 
being those of young married women, who, finding life 
unbearable under the daily and hourly sting of the 
mother-in-law's tongue, end it at last by jumping down 
a well. 

The average number of deaths from each of those 
causes, for each month, taken from a study of the sani- 
tary commissioner's tables for several years, he gives as 
follows : 



Jan. 


Feb. 


Mar. 


Apr. 


May 


June 


July 


Aug:. 


Sept. 


Oct. 


Nov. 


Dec. 


105 


109 


196 


268 


246 


248 


246 


242 


269 


250 


151 


100 


105 


94 


105 


119 


125 


128 


132 


154 


145 


135 


115 


98 



Suicide 
Murder 



In commenting upon this, he says: "Both series pre- 
sent a distinct annual variation, notwithstanding some 
irregularities which would probably disappear if we had 
larger numbers to deal with, and in both the phases are 
similar, the minimum being reached in the middle of cold 
weather and the maximum in the hot season and rains." 
And again, with regard to an arithmetical equation 
given: "And any one who has been in India during the 
cold weather, and seen to what an abject condition the 
ordinary native is reduced by a temperature of 60° or 
so, can believe that there is some truth in the results 
above given, that at about 48° curves of violence would 
cease, for at such a temperature nobody would possess a 
sufficient store of energy to enable him to commit a 

crime of any more grave description than petit larceny." 
11 



146 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



Temperature. Figure 13 shows unmistakably that 
except for the very highest temperatures, the number of 
assaults increases with the heat. That is what Shake- 
speare had noticed, and the data corroborate in a striking 
manner the wonderful observational powers of the great 
master. The minor fluctuations of the curves may be 
disregarded, as they are very probably due to accidents, 
but the general showing is one of marked deficiency for 
low temperature with a somewhat gradual increase to its 







75° 
80° 


80° 
85° 


85; 

90 






70° 

75° 




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A88AULT AND BATTERY MALE 



Figure 13 

maximum excess in the 80°-85° group, at which point a 
sudden drop takes place. This final decrease is in itself 
interesting. It seems without doubt to be due to the 
devitalizing effect of the intense heat of 85° and above. 
This has been corroborated by the study of the death 
rate, which is found to increase wonderfully for such 
temperatures. ) 

For fighting purposes, one must have not only the 
inclination, but also the energy to support his position 
vi et armis. Heat of any considerable intensity seems 



CRIME AND THE WEATHER 



147 



productive of emotional states, furnishing the former, 
(i. e., inclination) but at a certain point the latter is de- 





5 


5 
10 


10 
15 


15 
20 


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30 


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35 


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40 


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60 


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70 


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TEMPERATURE 

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EACH MONTH 














































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Figure 14 



pleted by extra demands made upon it by the processes 
of life under such conditions, and without it, the con- 



148 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

sciousness of sufficient strength to down an antagonist is 
wanting. If our data showed simple instability of 
temper — or even profanity — the results might be differ- 
ent; but an inclination to fight, without the energy to 
back it up, gets nobody into the police court. 

In the course of this study of temperature, it seemed 
probable that from the very nature of the curves shown, 
there might be conditions of heat which would fail to 
show, even though their efforts be considerable. Such 
would be unseasonable heat ; that is, excessively hot days 
for the time of year, though in actual temperature only 
equal to comparatively cool ones for a hotter season. 
For example, an April day of a mean temperature of 
75° > which would be unusual for that month, might, for 
all this curve shows, have a disastrous effect upon con- 
duct ; yet in the study of that condition for the year, the 
fact be entirely concealed by the soothing effect of an 
August day of same temperature. In order to discover 
such negation of results, temperature curves were con- 
structed for each month of the year, and are shown by 
Figure 1A Although this figure is not elsewhere ex- 
plained, it is constructed in every respect upon the same 
principles as the others, and shows some exceedingly 
interesting things, especially when studied in connection 
with Figure 83, the only other showing monthly temper- 
ature curves. The curves interpreted show that in Jan- 
uary and February the temperature variations have very 
little effect — that is, the curves have no very marked 
general tendency either up or down, the fluctuations 
being probably due to accidental conditions which a 
larger number of data would tend to disappear. In 
March the hot days are beginning to have their effect, 



CRIME AND THE WEATHER 149 

which in April is at its maximum, decreasing as the heat 
of summer comes on, and increasing again, till an au- 
tumnal climax is reached in October, with another dimin- 
uendo effect for hot days as winter approaches. The 
unusual and interesting fact demonstrated here with a 
certainty that cannot be doubted, is that the unseason- 
ably hot days of spring and autumn are the pugnacious 
ones, even though the actual heat be much less than that 
for summer. In fact, it will be noticed that for the 
excessively hot days, registering a mean of from 80° to 
90°, the number of assaults for at least three of the 
months upon which that condition is reached (July, 
August and September) decreases. We might infer 
from this that conditions of heat up to a certain limit are 
vitalizing in their tendency, while at the same time irri- 
tating, especially when we are not dressed in accordance 
with the demands of comfort ; but above that limit, heat 
is as devitalizing in its effect as to leave hardly energy 
enough to carry on a fight. This is but a corroboration 
of the effects of great heat shown by the temperature 
curves for the year. 

A comparison of these curves for males and females 
would seem to show that the latter are more affected by 
heat than the former. For almost all the groups, the 
deficiency or excess shown for males is intensified in that 
for females. This is especially shown in the excess for 
the 80°-85° group, and the drop at the end. Although 
for the highest temperature shown, few men were left 
with energy enough to quarrel, it would seem that the 
fighting blood was entirely drawn from the veins of the 
other sex. 

Barometer. Periods of low barometer are proved 



150 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



by our curves to be the harvest season for the bluecoats. 
These curves (Fig. 15) show even a greater regularity 
of trend than do those which we have just considered, 
though their tendency is in the other direction. They 
are, too, somewhat more difficult to interpret. It does 
not seem probable that the actual weight of the atmos- 
phere itself is the direct cause of the results shown, but 
the barometrical conditions as accompaniments of other 
meteorological states; perhaps their relation to storms. 
The entire variation of the mercury column for New 



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V 


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Figure 15 











York is but little more than an inch, while one experi- 
ences a drop of five inches in going to Denver, Colo., 
and five more in crossing the Rocky Mountains by almost 
any route, without experiencing any marked emotional 
change, so the density itself cannot be the cause. Low 
barometers are common to storms, but the excess in 
assaults did not occur at such times, as will be shown 
under our study of character of the day and precipita- 
tion. The same barometrical conditions frequently im- 
mediately precede storms — in fact, are a part of their 
meteorological preliminaries — and here we perhaps have 



CRIME AND THE WEATHER 



151 



a key to the problem. Many people "feel" a storm com- 
ing. Signals, both mental and physiological, more 
trustworthy even than the black flag of the Weather 
Bureau, tell them of its approach. If the emotional 
effects of such conditions be what seem to be indicated 
by our curves, we would do well at such a signal of storm 
not only to keep our shipping in port, but keep away 
from our enemies, especially if they are better fighters 
than ourselves. But little difference is shown here be- 
tween the effects upon the two sexes. 1 

Humidity. The effects of varying humidities as 
shown by our curves (Fig. 16) are, I believe, contrary 
to what is ordinarily thought to be the case. We find 
excesses of assaults for low readings and deficiencies for 
high ones. When we consider that muggy, sticky days 
— the kinds that we all detest— are of the latter class, we 
are almost inclined to doubt the correctness of these 



HUMIDITY 



.45 
.50 


.50 

.55 


.65 
.60 


.60 

.65 


.65 
.70 


.70 
.75 


.75 

.80 


.80 

.85 


.85 
.90 


.90 
.95 


.95 
.100 




























































~ 




X 


>v 









-MALES 
.FEMALES 








r 

\ 


\ 


X " 








\ 
\ 





Figure 16 

results. Nevertheless, based upon 40,000 data, they 
must be taken as somewhat conclusive. The reason is 
undoubtedly this. Days of high humidity are not only 
emotionally but vitally depressing, and we have the same 
element entering into our problem that we had in the 
discussion of excessively high temperatures. On such 



152 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



days we perhaps feel like fighting, but such a thing is 
altogether too much exertion, and the police records are 
none the wiser. For low humidities, energy is at a sur- 
plus ; and although the emotional state is ordinarily much 
more positive, it would seem as if, in the long run, with 
plenty of strength at command, an opportunity to use 
it is generally to be found ; in fact, that surplus energy 
is a more dangerous thing to have about than the most 
pugnacious inclination with nothing to back it up. 

The curve for females, with its marked drop for 
humidities above 90°, shows this to be especially true. 

Wind. Whatever may be our dislike for March hur- 
ricanes, the police judge does not profit by them. Our 
curves (Fig. 17) show that the mild winds of between 
150 and 200 miles per day (40 per cent, of the days of 



BO 
100 


100 

150 


150 

200 


200 

250 


250 

300 


WIND 

300 
350 


350 

400 


400 

450 


450 
500 


500 
550 


5BQ 






/^*^ 




















/ 






*.. 




V. ,** 


-,-•"•»- 






-I » 


i 


/ 
/ 
t 
















V 


i 
1 


■/ 
/ 

/ 

/ 





















-MALES 
-FEMALES 

Figure 17 



the year have such) are the pugnacious ones. At first 
thought this would be hard to account for, but some 
recent studies in England have made at least the defi- 
ciency for virtual calms explainable on the same basis as 
intense heat and high humidity. 

Dr. J. B. Cohen (see Smithsonian Report, 1895) has 
shown that the atmosphere in large towns at certain 
times contains more than five times as much carbon 



CRIME AND THE WEATHER 



153 



dioxide as that of the surrounding country at the same 
time. He does not give the meteorological conditions 
of the days upon which the excess was greatest, but 
it is, I believe, reasonable to presume that they were 
without wind. Certainly upon windy days, there would 
be sufficient ventilation to prevent any such discrepancy. 

Now an excess of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere 
can be produced only at the expense of oxygen. But 
oxygen is necessary to all the vital processes productive 
of energy in the animal kingdom, while carbon dioxide 
is equally baneful; hence, in great cities, during calms, 
energy must be deficient. The increase in death rate ( see 
Chap. X. ) is conclusive proof of this. But since vitality 
is essential to such crimes as assault, they, too, must fall 
below expectancy. The deficiency for high winds, I 
shall not attempt to account for. The curve for females 
shows the same intensifying of effects that we have 
noted for the others. 

Character of the Day. Days, it will be remembered, 
are characterized at the Weather Bureau as "Fair," if 
for three-tenths or less of the 
hours from sunrise to sunset the 
sun is obscured, as "Partly 
Cloudy" if four, five, six or 
seven-tenths are obscured; if 
more, as "Cloudy." It has no ref- 
erence to precipitation. Strange 
as it may seem, the cloudy days rigTire i 8 

are the freest from personal encounter which has at- 
tracted the police. This may be partly due to the fact 
that not so many people are upon the streets, but in the 
other chapters, deportment in public schools and peni- 



CHAR. OF DAY 

PT. CL'DY. CL'DY. 



^ 













-MALES 
..FEMALES 



154 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

tentiary and asylums for the insane, suicide, and the 
death rate, all except the last, have shown the greatest 
deficiency for cloudy days. This seems explosive of 
many of our well founded beliefs. If it be true, fiction 
must choose fair days for its tragic climaxes, relegating 
its quieter movements to the cloudy. 

Our thesis of reserve energy is applicable to an 
hypothesis for this curve. 

The cloudy days are not the vitalizing ones, but the 
reverse. 

Precipitation. This curve (Fig. 19) is exactly 
what we should expect from the last, showing, as it does, 
a deficiency of assaults for wet days, however much it 
may contradict our general opinions upon the subject. 
-The relation between the two sexes coincides with what 
none cipit +^ 1 1 °in nas been shown upon the other charts. 

The deficiency of crime for rainy 
days is perhaps surprising, when we 
consider the excuse for being "out of 
sorts" which the disappointments at- 
tending stormy weather make legiti- 
mate ; but we must conclude that ability 
is a more important factor than inclina- 



\ 
\ 

— \ 

\ 
\ 

X \ 
\ \ 
\ i 

-^A 

vS. 
\\ 

\ 
\ 



-MALES 



— Figured ALES tion, and that the problem of offensive 
crime is largely one of vital surplus. 

Turning now to the other class of data which can be 
legitimately considered under the head of crime — mur- 
ders for the city of Denver, Colo. ( Class VI., see page 
64) — we are forced to admit that the number of data is 
hardly great enough to form the basis of entirely valid 
conclusions, yet they are perhaps of interest, coming as 
they do from a general climate so different from that of 



CRIME AND THE WEATHER 155 

New York City. No figures are shown in illustration 
of these data. 

Occurrence. The monthly distribution of this form 
of crime was found to resemble in general that of assault 
and battery, i. e., a deficiency for the coldest months and 
an excess for the hottest, yet differing in that the great- 
est excesses for the year occurred in March (11%) and 
September (7%). 

To one who has lived in Colorado, this fact does not 
seem strange, at least for the former month, since that 
is, by all odds, the most uncomfortable and unenjoyable 
month of the year and one during which a person would 
seem to have an excuse for being ugly and out of sorts, 
if at any period. The wind is at that time at an average 
velocity nearly double that of some other months, and 
the wind, as will be shown later, is the peculiarly provok- 
ing element in the dry regions of high altitude. These 
conditions do not, however, exist during the month of 
September, and it is not easy to account for the excess of 
crime for that month. 

Temperature. Great heat seems to have precisely 
the same effect upon the homicidal tendency that has 
been shown for pugnacity earlier in this chapter. At 
temperatures below 70° a deficiency is shown, beginning 
with 60 per cent, for 15°, the lowest group studied, the 
curve gradually rising till an excess of 80 per cent, is 
reached at a mean temperature of 90°. The conditions 
so nearly resemble those for New York City to need no 
further comment. 

Barometer. The same is practically true for baro- 
metrical conditions. Since the normal height of the 
mercury column is five inches less for Denver than for 



156 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

the sea level, some marked peculiarity of effect might 
be expected, but none is discoverable. The excess of 
murders is for low pressures and the deficiency for high, 
a total difference of 35 per cent, being shown in the 
occurrence. 

Humidity. It is in this meteorological condition 
and the next to be discussed that the peculiar effects of 
the Colorado climates are most forcibly shown. In the 
case of humidity, the effect is that of the sea level tre- 
mendously exaggerated. Whereas, for New York City, 
low humidities are shown to be slightly provocative of 
brawls (an excess of 20 per cent, or so) I the crackling, 
dry Colorado day, which one who has ever experienced 
can never forget, with a mean humidity of from 10° to 
15°, sends the crime up to an excess of 400, which 
means that for the thirteen years covered by the study, 
murders were four times as prevalent as under ordinary 
conditions. In fact, one might almost fear to go upon 
the streets on such a day. We of lower altitudes may 
consider ourselves lucky that such extremes of dryness 
are only reached upon the arid plains of the mountain 
regions. 

It seems certain that the direct influence of the condi- 
tion is through the increased potential of atmospheric 
electricity which always accompanies it (see page 132). 
As has already been shown, dry air, especially if it be in 
motion through the wind, is productive of electrical states 
which influence to a marked degree both the emotional 
states and the bodily energy necessary for action, and in 
some way, which in the present stage of investigation 
cannot be explained, the result is disastrous to seemly 
behavior. 



CRIME AND THE WEATHER 157 

Wind. High winds for the Colorado altitudes par- 
allel in their effects the conditions of low humidity as 
just shown. In fact, as the two conditions frequently 
accompany one another, it is difficult to isolate the influ- 
ence of each, and it is possible that the one without the 
other would be comparatively harmless. The fact is, 
however, that for days upon which the total move- 
ment of the wind was less than 200 miles for the day, 
murders, for the city of Denver, were found to be below 
the normal in prevalence. From that point, the increase 
was very rapid, reaching an excess of more than 400 per 
cent, (four times) for movements of 400 miles per day. 
This is certainly an effect peculiar to the dry winds of the 
region, since reference to Figure 17 shows that for winds 
of the same velocity in New York City — and they are 
much more frequently experienced there than in Denver 
— the effects are quieting rather than disturbing to the 
spirits. Again we must refer their deadly effect upon 
the western plains to the super-induced electrical poten- 
tial of the atmosphere which increases (see page 126) 
with the wind. 

Character of the Day and Precipitation. The 
seeming effects of the meteorological conditions already 
discussed in this chapter have either been very similar for 
Denver and New York City (occurrence, temperature 
and barometer) , or qualitatively the same though differ- 
ent in magnitude. 

In the effects of cloudy and wet days we have diamet- 
rical opposites for the two cities. At the sea level we 
find disorder most prevalent upon dry, clear (or at least 
partly clear) days; in the altitude, upon wet, cloudy 
ones ; conditions which are in opposition to the hypothe- 



158 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

sis of vital energy which I shall propose in the conclud- 
ing chapter. For Denver, murders showed an excess of 
25 per cent, upon "cloudy" days, and are of only a little 
less upon those having some precipitation. The effect 
must be, it seems to me, entirely upon the emotions, 
producing a mental state of great instability and conse- 
quent liability to dangerous impulsive acts. Where 
cloudy days are of common occurrence, as in the East, one 
might, perhaps — in spite of the sentiments expressed on 
page 84 — learn to control one's self during their preva- 
lence, but with their rare occurrence, as in Colorado, the 
effect is perhaps overpowering. At least, such seems 
to be the case. I cannot believe that they are energy 
producing in their effect, and since I have argued that 
conscious strength as well as an inclination, is a prerequi- 
site to an active encounter, should on a priori grounds 
argue that their effect should not be what we find for 
Denver. It is, however, what we find, and not what we 
seemingly should find that we are setting forth. 

The third class of data, having to do with the deport- 
ment of the inmates of the New York City Penitentiary 
on Randall's Island, differs from the other two discussed 
in this chapter in that it covers the activities of the 
criminal rather than criminal acts of persons who per- 
haps have been, hitherto, law-abiding citizens. The 
problem of discipline in institutions where large num- 
bers of men having no very high respect for law and 
order are confined, is a difficult one and various means 
are under use for its preservation. Among them is 
the plan of isolating for various lengths of time within 
dark cells the perpetrators of especially flagrant mis- 
demeanors. This incarceration in itself entails suffi- 



CRIME AND THE WEATHER 159 

cient discomfort to make it a thing to be abhorred by the 
criminal for immediate physical causes; but it is stren- 
uously avoided for another, and perhaps a more potent 
reason that the punishment carries with it an extension 
of sentence, or at least an annulment of any time rebate 
which might otherwise be awarded. For these rea- 
sons dark room punishment — and it is this that I have 
taken as the basis of study — is not a common form of 
discipline, though one which certainly is indicative of a 
grave breach of prison propriety and a valid datum of 
bad conduct. The nearly four thousand such data 
(class VII., page 64) were taken from the record books 
of the Randall's Island institution covering the years 
1891-1897 inclusive. A considerably larger number of 
such punishments had been imposed during those years, 
for some of which it was impossible to determine from 
the records the exact day upon which the punishable mis- 
demeanors had been committed. Such were not includ- 
ed in this study, since it is the relation between weather 
states and the deportment of the criminal — not the ac- 
tion of the warden — that it deals with. 

Correspondence with prison officials in various parts 
of the country, although productive of no definite state- 
ments of any value, gave evidence that the question of 
weather influences had been considered in a general way 
by many. One superintendent of a State Reformatory 
of more than national repute, says: "Ourselves, in 
common with all observing persons having charge of 
considerable numbers of human beings grouped together 
in close contact, observe always changed moods of the 
mass which seem to be attributable to diff erent seasons 



160 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

and climatic causes, but there are no facts scientific, 
registered and available for the replies you desire." 

Another, after explaining a similar inability to make 
definite statements, writes: "At the same time, I have 
no doubt that the weather has a certain influence upon 
different temperaments." 

A prison warden writes as follows: "I have noticed 
during the four years I have been warden of this prison 
that we would seem to have epidemics of infractions of 
prison rules — more particularly that of fighting. When 
these have occurred I have often said that we must be 
having high winds or some condition of the atmosphere 
particularly rasping. I think that is everyone's experi- 
ence." 

Occurrence. An inspection of the curve (not shown) 
which expresses the monthly distribution of dark-room 
tenants shows a considerable excess for January (15%) 
and the earlier months of the year, a deficiency for May, 
June and July, an excess again for August, and a defi- 
ciency for the remaining months of the year. On the 
whole the number of breaches of discipline seems to have 
an inverse relation to the general freedom of activity and 
exercise which the different seasons of the year make 
possible in a corrective institution. For the first few 
months of the year the weather is such as to prevent out- 
door exercise, and a consequent increase in active dis- 
order is noticeable. With the advent of the warmer 
months, greater freedom is possible and the dark room 
is comparatively free from occupants. August, how- 
ever, with an excess of 10 per cent, of misdemeanors, is 
in direct opposition to this hypothesis and its effect must 
be accounted for in some other way. It seems to me possi- 



CRIME AND THE WEATHER 



161 



ble that two factors must be considered in doing so — 
first, the excessive heat of the month, which will be shown 
in the next paragraph to have a peculiarly exasperating 
effect upon the penitentiary inmate, and second, the fact 
that the freedom of the summer time has, so far as its 
quieting influence is concerned, worn itself out. The 
contrast of this freedom, with the close confinement of 
the winter months was sufficient, perhaps, to account in 
part for the good behavior during the early summer, but 
not to counteract the effects of long continued heat. It 
is possible that contrast of conditions is also the explana- 
tion of the deficiency of misdemeanors for the late 
autumn and early winter, though this time it is the con- 
trast between the heat of August and ? 5 80 85 
the delightful coolness of the later 
year, producing a quieting effect suf- 
ficient to compensate even for the 
adverse influences of greater physical 
restraint. 

Temperature. The curve upon 

TEMPERATURE 

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 



20% 


20/c 



/ 



S / 




Figure 20 



.DEPORTMENT IN PENITENTIARY 
-CLERICAL ERROR8 



Figure 20, which shows the seeming influence of varying 
degrees of temperature upon the deportment of the pen- 



12 



162 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



itentiary inmates, is in every respect comparable with 
that for monthly occurrence, and is particularly interest- 
ing because of the light which it throws upon the question 
of hot weather influence. The deficiency of disorder for 
the lowest temperature group is what might be expected 
from the meagreness of the data for the coldest months, 
and the curve as a whole is not at all startling until we 
reach the part for 75 ° and above. Here we find an effect 
far greater than any which is shown for other classes of 



BAROMETER 

29.2 29 3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 30. 



30.1 30,2 30.3 30.-4 



60X 
40%' 
20% 


20% 
4Q%> 
60% 

















































































. ' — 








V 




-~^ 
















"^ 


v^^- 












"""o^-""" 


















































— — 




\ 























60?C 
40*> 
20% 


205* 
40% 
60% 



-DEPORTMENT IN PENITENTIARY 
..CLERICAL ERRORS 



Figure 21 

persons, either male or female, adults or children, and 
judging from the other studies, one altogether out of 
proportion to what it should be. This being the case, it 
is fair to ask if there is not something in the enforced 
condition of the convict which is provocative of such 
results, and if found, to ask if that thing is not capable 
of correction. The persons studied in each of the other 
chapters, with the exception of the school children, are at 



CRIME AND THE WEATHER 



163 



large and free to choose their own location for combating 
the heat. They are left free choice, also, so far as the 
pocketbook allows, in the matter of clothing. Neither of 
these facts is, however, true for the convict, nor can be in 
the nature of the case. But with the school children, who 
are also determined as to choice of location, we find the 
high temperature, as recorded by the weather bureau, 
particularly soothing, and ascribed the fact to the coolness 
of the school room. Finding the reverse conditions of de- 
portment true for the convict, we are willing to hypothe- 
cate that the prison is excessively hot and that the effects 
which we find are due to an unnatural and perhaps 
unnecessarily stifling atmosphere there. The only other 
uniform element of difference between the convict and 
the subjects of study in the other chapters is that of 
clothing. It may be, — though I cannot speak with au- 



HUMIDITY 

45 50 56 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 



20% 



20% 



-"^ — 
\ 

\ 


\ 
































>•"" "" 


., 




"^\ 






V 


*^' 


s^~ 


«•"*- — 





*" 








\ 


\ 
























\ 



20# 



20% 



-DEPORTMENT IN PENITENTIARY 
-CLERICAL ERROR8 

Figure 22 



thority in the matter, for I never studied a prison except 
for the few days while securing these data, and they 
were in cold weather, — that the prison garb is not well 
chosen for withstanding the heat of summer, and that its 
wearer is subjected to a real hardship if not to injury 
through its use. A day in a dark room is, perhaps, 



164 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



nothing serious in itself, but the breach of discipline 
which places one there may mean much, and if the fre- 
quency of such breach is a measure of the general emo- 
tional equilibrium of the convict body, the whole problem 
of prison discipline might well include a study of such 
seemingly remote elements as the temperature of build- 
ings and the prison garb. I may be reading too much 
into my curve, but this seems to me to be suggested by it. 

Barometer. Varying degrees of atmospheric pres- 
sure, in their influence upon active disorder are typically 
exemplified by the curve for barometrical readings (Fig. 
21) ; it varies but little from the others of its class, and I 
can say nothing regarding it which has not been said for 
the others. 

The same may also be said for the curves upon Fig- 



WIND 

100 150 200 25U 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 



ZQ.% 



20^ 































__. 


-. — ,. 














\ 








/ 


/ 












""**•■ 


~s 




/" 
























V 






k 



20% 



20^ 



Figure 23 



ures 22 and 23, based upon conditions of humidity and 
wind. They are nearly identical with those, showing 
the influence of the same weather states upon the conduct 
of the pupils in the public schools, and what was there 
said applies equally well at this point. 

Character of the Day and Precipitation. The fig- 
ures bearing upon these meteorological conditions show 



CRIME AND THE WEATHER 



165 



CHARACTER OF THE DAY AND PRECIPITATION 

FAIR PT.CL'DY. CL'DY. NONE +.01 IN 



20% 



20% 









20.% 20% 


20% 20% 






^ 






\ 




.*» " 








\ 










\ 



20% 



DEPORTMENT IN PENITENTIARY 

,_ CLERICAL ERROR 

Figure 24 

plainly enough that the clear, dry days are the trouble- 
some ones, the excess of misconduct for the former 
being 6 per cent, and for the latter, 20 per cent., with a 
deficiency for all the remaining characteristics of weather 
which are, by common consent, more agreeable. Even 
though prepared for such a showing by statements in 
the preceding chapter, it seems difficult to believe, and is 
explainable only, it seems to me, upon the theory of our 
uses of vital energy under such conditions. But this 
has already been touched upon. 



CHAPTER IX 



INSANITY AND THE WEATHER 

In the very imperfect and incomplete study which I 
have been able to make of the insane with reference to 
meteorological condition, I have been somewhat sur- 
prised to find that weather effects do not seem to be 
so marked with them as with normal persons. The 
reverse, it seemed to me, might be expected, since among 
the latter it is, generally speaking, the neurotic, unstable 
mind, rather than the stolid, phlegmatic type that is 
affected most, and with the insane we have the theoret- 
ically susceptible type in its extreme form. Correspond- 
ence with superintendents of asylums in various parts of 
the country, however, shows that as a class, those officers 
are much more skeptical of weather influences than are 
the school teachers ; in several cases asserting that noth- 
ing had been observed which would lead to the belief 
that weather states exert any influence whatever. To 
officers in charge of some twenty asylums for the in- 
sane, the same questionaire was sent (see page 94) that 
was used with the teachers. Returns were made in 
full, covering some three thousand patients ; others who 
were appealed to either failed to reply, or wrote general 
letters, some of which are quoted from below. Of those 
who made definite replies, the opinion was unanimous 

166 



INSANITY AND THE WEATHER 167 

that the deportment of their charges was at its best dur- 
ing "clear" weather, while "cold" and "calm" were also 
mentioned as conducive to good behavior. There was 
also unanimity of opinion that "stormy" or "muggy" 
weather was productive of the opposite extreme of de- 
portment, with "cloudy" and "hot" days as close seconds. 
But one reply covered the question of mechanical pro- 
ductivity and in that case, "least" and "most" seemed to be 
affected as was good and bad deportment. It is interest- 
ing to note how widely these opinions differ from the 
results of the empirical study stated later in this chapter. 

The general discussions of the questionaire, which 
were very generously given even though no definite 
answers were made to the questions, were interesting 
and to the point, and I quote from them somewhat fully. 
One superintendent replies : "I have noticed this much, 
that when there is unpleasant weather and the patients 
are obliged to stay in a long time and cannot get out to 
exercise in work or other ways as freely as they can in 
pleasant weather, that under these conditions they are 
apt to be a little restless and more active. I cannot see 
that the weather plays any very great part in their men- 
tal activity." 

Another, more skeptical of any weather influence, 
writes: "Your note of December 15 is at hand. In 
reference to your questionaire in regard to the possible 
relationship between mental states and meteorological 
conditions, I have to say that nothing in my experience 
will furnish any material in this direction. In fact, like 
the famous chapter on snakes in Ireland, I have little 
faith in there being any particular connection between 
the state of the weather and mental states." 



168 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

A third, with a little more faith and definiteness of 
statement, replies: "Your note came to me at a very 
busy time, the close of the quarter and the close of the 
year. With a house of 1,030 insane persons, with the 
needed number of attendants, I have very little time to 
give to outside matters and no one in the house who has 
time to give to such an investigation as you propose, for 
with the class of patients we now have, it takes all their 
time and attention to keep their work in proper order. 
I may state as a general fact that all the patients are 
more or less affected by the changes of the weather and 
a succession of rainy days, dull and gloomy, makes all 
more or less fretful and irritable, more so, in fact, than 
usual ; and when the weather changes to clear and bright 
a corresponding change can be noticed, and between the 
extremes will be found all varieties of temper, disposi- 
tion and fret fulness." 

Still another, expressing the opinion stated earlier in 
this chapter as the result of my study, says: "I have 
not found that the insane are so much influenced by ex- 
treme changes in the weather as are the sane, for the 
reason that their general sensibility is obtunded. They 
are, however, depressed by hot, muggy weather, and 
stimulated by dry, clear, and either cold or temperate 
weather. Comparing the patients with the employees, 
the latter are most affected physically and least mentally 
by weather changes." 

These letters express in a general way the sentiments 
of all who replied to my queries, and may be taken as 
representing the opinion of experts on the question of 
weather influences upon the insane. At the outset of 
my study I hoped to secure definite records of discipline 



INSANITY AND THE WEATHER 169 

or restraint for some of the large asylums in the vicinity 
of New York City, and use them in the same manner as 
those for the deportment in the public schools. My 
attempt to secure such data was, however, unsuccessful. 
Records were placed at my disposal for an asylum in a 
distant part of the country, but since no statistics of the 
U. S. Weather Bureau were sufficiently near to furnish 
valid meteorological data, they could not be utilized. 
As the only other source of information, bearing on the 
behavior of the insane, I have used that portion of the 
police records for New York City covering arrests for 
insanity (class VIII., page 65) . Except for the fewness 
of the data there available, the record furnishes bet- 
ter material for our study than could any asylum 
register, since each datum covers an occasion when a 
supposedly sane person became insane; if not that, an 
occasion when a person, sufficiently sane to be at large 
and without restraint, became dangerously unbalanced 
mentally. The study is then one of those meteorological 
conditions most tending to throw a person, probably 
already predisposed to insanity, over the border line 
which, in the eye of the law, separates the mentally 
balanced from the mentally unbalanced. 

Occurrence. We find between the curves upon 
Figure 25, which show the occurrence of arrests for 
insanity during the months of the year, and those for 
suicide (Figure 38), a striking semblance; the same 
deficiencies for the cold months of the year, with the 
greatest excesses for the late spring and early summer. 
There is, however, a marked difference between the two, 
in that for suicide, the excesses continue throughout the 
heated period of the year, while for insanity there is a 



170 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



considerable decrease for males, and an actual deficiency 
for females at that time. 

If, as we might suppose, there is a similarity in the 
mental conditions productive both of insanity and sui- 
cide, and some have argued that the latter is always an 
indication of the former, we have here a difference in its 
expression, since the hottest months are productive of an 
excess of self-destruction though not of insanity. I 
shall, however, argue that suicides are of two classes: 
those who make an end of themselves for no fully recog- 
nized reason, the influence being undefined though fully 



JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. 



OCCURRENCE 

MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 



20% 
10^ 
0% 
10% 
20% 

pox 











,*N 




















A. 


/ 


/ 


V 
















, 


/A. 
/ / \ 


N/ 




\ 


\ 
\ 


/ 


/N 


N 
S 








V/ 










\_ - 


_ -f 








/ 


/ 


















\ 


\ 


/ 
























t 






















\s 





























20% 



30% 



FEMALES 



Figure 25 



potent ( Strahan's "True suicide" ) ; such a one is impelled 
to the act by an impulse which he finds irresistible and 
not because he may escape evil or gain something more 
desirable; and second ("Rational suicide"), those who 
recognize conditions as unendurable and calmly decide, 
after full consideration, to take their own lives. The 
second class, it seems to me, have little in common men- 



INSANITY AND THE WEATHER 171 

tally with the insane person, and it would also seem, 
upon consideration of the occurrence curves of the two 
classes, that it is this second class of suicides that con- 
tributes largely to our data for the hottest months. We 
have all, perhaps, experienced days so hot as to wonder 
whether life were really worth the living, and if there had 
not been other strong inducements for its continuation, 
might have decided adversely. With the insane we can 
not suppose that this rational side of the problem enters 
at all. No one ever became a maniac because, all things 
considered, he thought it most conducive to his happi- 
ness. Seemingly, hot weather could affect them only 
as it affects suicides of the first class considered, and our 
curve would seem to place this class and the insane in the 
same general group. Since the extreme variations of 
the curve for females is greater than for males, we must 
conclude that the weather influences the former to a 
greater extent than the latter. The excess of women 
who were taken to the asylum during the month of Sep- 
tember is hard to account for and may be an accidental 
fluctuation due to the fewness of data. 

Temperature. For the greater part of the tempera- 
ture curve (Fig. 26) the number of insane as considered 
by our study raises but little from expectancy; so little 
as to lead us to believe that the influence of that meteor- 
ological condition is but slight, upon the mentally unbal- 
anced. At the extremes of heat and cold there is, how- 
ever, an unmistakable effect, the result of each being an 
excess of mental disturbance. This is undoubtedly due 
to the direct physical stress of those conditions. Ex- 
treme suffering of any kind, as is well known, produces 
that result, and many cases are on record of arctic ex- 



172 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



plorers and sailors becoming insane through exposure, 
as well as of well authenticated cases of heat insanity. 
It is possible that some cases of simple sunstroke were 
entered in the police registers as insanity, which, if true, 
would tend to increase the number of data inordinately 
for the highest temperature groups. The same relation 



15 20 25 



TEMPERATURE 

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 




, FEMALES 

Figure 26 



is here shown between the two sexes that has been com- 
mented upon in other chapters ; namely, the greater sus- 
ceptibility of females to weather influences. 

Barometer. In the light of other figures in this 
volume, there is nothing peculiar or characteristic in 
Figure 27 which shows the seeming influence of different 
degrees of atmospheric pressure upon those predisposed 
to insanity. The influence seems to be almost identical 
with that upon the prevalence of suicide and differs but 
slightly from that upon deportment in the public schools 
and the penitentiary. The tendency to street brawls, 
too, seems to be the same, and whatever has been said in 
the discussion of any of those classes of data, so far as 



INSANITY AND THE WEATHER 



173 



I know might be repeated here. The greater suscepti- 
bility of females to weather influences is also indicated. 





BAROMETER 

29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 30. 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 


40 /; 

20"/ 

o 


\ 


\ 

\ 


























\ 

\ 






















































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\^ 






A 








20% 


























K> 


X 




















v- 




\ 
\ 



4oy 

20% 

o 

20°/ o 
40V 



Figure 27 

Humidity. No particular comment is needed either 
in the light of what has already been said concerning the 
influence of humidity upon mental states, shown upon 
Figure 28. From its similarity to the others for the 
same meteorological condition, we should argue that 
those peculiarities which are productive of minor abnor- 
malities of conduct among the sane, are conducive to 
those excesses of conduct which constitute insanity. It 
is noticeable, however, that effects of varying degrees of 
atmospheric moisture, as I have discovered them, do not 
at all correspond with the opinions as expressed in the 
letters from asylum officials, who invariably placed 
"muggy" days as among those most disastrous to mental 
composure. The term muggy ordinarily carries with it 
the idea of moisture ; in fact, translated into the nomen- 
clature of the meteorologist would mean "great humid- 
ity," and if the observations of the experts were correct, 



174 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



we should expect to find our data excessive under those 
conditions. That the case is exactly the reverse is shown 
by our figure. This same discrepancy of opinion was 
noted for the school teachers. I can account for it in 
no other way than that in the process of introspection 
which must accompany any attempt to remember our 



HUMIDITY 

70 75 



40% 
20% 



20% 
40°/c 



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k 




















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V 


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N 








y>. 








V 








nJ^~ 


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_ - . - 


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s 

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40% 



20° 



40% 



.MALES FEMALES 

Figure 28 



past experiences, we are influenced by the feeling of 
physical discomfiture which is associated with the muggy 
day, and that our judgment is influenced accordingly. 

Wind. Varying movements of the atmosphere seem 
to have but slight influence upon the insane (Fig. 29). 
Except for the marked deficiency of indications of men- 
tal unbalance for periods of calm, we find none in excess 
of the "probable error" mathematically computed, for 
the data are so few for the groups from 250 to 700 miles 
total movement for the day as to make the fluctuations 
of our curve for those groups, meaningless. In the 
effects of calm days, the official opinions are entirely 



INSANITY AND THE WEATHER 



175 



corroborative of our results. The general influence of 
such days is, however, fully discussed in Chapter XIV. 

WIND 

700 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 



6-0 

















*\ 






















r-^ 


— X, 


\ 


/\ 




/ 


/ 

/ 




J 


7 












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I 

1 


























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MALES 



Figure 29 

Character of the Day and Precipitation. In the 
influence of these conditions we are again at variance 
with expert opinion. The latter gave us stormy days as 
disastrous in their effect upon discipline, while during 
such days I find that upon the street, evidences of insan- 
ity were much less prevalent than usual. It is true that 
in the hospitals, the patients are under an equal scrutiny 
during all kinds of weather, while it is possible that on 
stormy and wet days those who are predisposed to men- 
tal ailments are to some extent kept within doors, out of 
the eye of the guardian of the peace, but it is also true 
that in many cases the police were called to homes for 
the purpose of removing the unfortunate subjects of 
our study to the hospital ; a fact which would in part, at 
least, compensate for this difference. Figure 30 shows 
that fully thirty per cent, more arrests were made 
upon days when there was no precipitation than when 



176 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



there was some — nearly one-third as many more — and 
it seems hardly probable that this difference is due en- 
tirely to lack of publicity under the latter conditions. I 

CHARACTER OF THE DAY AND PRECIPITATION 

FAIR PT.CL'DY. CL'DY. NONE 4-. 01 IN 



io% 



10% 






10* 



10% 



10* 



I 

\ 

\ 




\\ 

\\ 

\ ^ 


,\ 











10* 



10^ 



FEMALE 



Figure 



can ascribe it only to the devitalizing influence which is 
discussed more fully in the concluding chapter. 

That this chapter is entirely incommensurate with the 
importance of the subject, I am aware, but I hope at 
some later time to supply certain of its defects, through 
the study of a larger number of data. 

Summary. Arrests for insanity are below the nor- 
mal in prevalence during the colder months of the year, 
and above the normal for the warmer, though not the 
hottest months; are affected but slightly by different 
degrees of temperature, except by the very hottest, 
which produce a marked increase ; are excessive for low, 
and deficient for high barometrical conditions ; are more 
prevalent for periods of low humidity than for high ; are 
deficient for calms, with little effect from higher wind 
velocities; are slightly above the normal for "Fair," and 
considerably above for "Dry" days. 



CHAPTER X 



HEALTH AND THE WEATHER 

The whole question of climatology has been fully- 
exploited by the medical profession, and a considerable 
number of volumes, beside magazine articles almost 
innumerable, are in print upon the subject. In the 
library of the Surgeon-General at Washington are sev- 
eral thousand titles under the heads: "climate," "meteor- 
ology," etc. These do not, however, with a few com- 
paratively important exceptions, in any way touch upon 
the question of weather influences as I have attempted 
to do so in the previous chapters of this book. In fact, 
so far as I know, such has never been done scientifically. 

There are probably few physicians in practice who 
have not observed again and again, and commented upon 
the seeming effects of peculiar weather states upon their 
patients, for such effects are too obvious in many cases 
to be overlooked. They are, perhaps, reckoned with in 
the treatment prescribed, and it is possible that some 
practitioners have even formulated rules based upon 
their own weather observations, which guide them in 
certain matters of practice. If such be the case, how- 
ever, they seem never to have put their conclusions in 
print for the benefit of others. If the weather does in 
any marked way affect the sick it is of much importance 

13 177 



178 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

that we know it and that the physician make allowance 
for such an influence. The school teacher, the police- 
man and the prison warden can do so only through a 
modification of the rules of discipline, with perhaps a 
sharper eye for evil doers at some times than at others 
as the weather conditions seem to suggest. With 
the physicians the possibilities are of quite a different 
order, for if a certain meteorological condition is found 
to produce upon people in general a definite and well 
determined effect, a temporary change of treatment 
may be made to counteract that effect and undesirable 
results be obviated. Perhaps it will never be possible 
to determine the particular effects of definite weather 
states upon different diseases even if such exist ; but it is 
possible in a general way to discover the physiological 
effects, as we have the mental effects, of the weather 
upon those in health and disease. 

Upon a priori grounds the former could hardly be 
expected to be so marked as the latter, for the emotions 
are probably more delicate indicators of changes in the 
vital economy than are any of the physiological symp- 
toms of disease. As is shown, however, by the curves 
illustrative of this chapter we have seemingly very con- 
siderable fluctuations in health which vary concomitantly 
with the weather, and which seem to be undubitable evi- 
dences that we are, to a marked extent "creatures of the 
weather" so far as our general health is concerned. 

Four classes of data mentioned in Chapter V. have a 
bearing upon the question of health. The first of these, 
attendance in the public schools, has been discussed 
somewhat fully in Chapter VII., and will only be men- 
tioned incidentally here. The second (class X, page 65) 



HEALTH AND THE WEATHER 179 

is also a study of persons supposedly in perfect health 
(the New York City policemen) to determine if possible 
the influence of the weather in the creation of a sick list. 
The third (class IX, page 65) comprises persons already 
weakened by disease, though not so severely as to neces- 
sitate confinement within doors; and fourth (class XI, 
page 66) persons in the last stages of disease. In the 
study of the Metropolitan Police, records headed, "Num- 
ber of the force on the sick list each day during the year," 
printed in each annual report, were used. For the entire 
force of six thousand men, the list varied from 170 to 
410, with a daily average of about 200. 

The study of hospital patients covers medical cases 
only for the "outpatient" department. Medical cases 
were considered, since it seemed probable that with the 
surgical would be introduced a greater number of errors 
accidental to the problem. The weather may or may not 
have anything to do with falls and run-overs and burns, 
but the chances that it has are less with such mishaps than 
with cases of sickness, pure and simple. For the years 
studied, an average of 122 patients sought aid at the hos- 
pital daily, the extremes for single days being 42 and 206. 
The average number of visits made by each patient was 
three and a fraction, usually at intervals of several days, 
though in some cases, weeks. 

I am convinced that large numbers of applicants for 
medical aid, under the conditions studied, are evidences 
of good physical condition rather than of poor on the 
part of the general "outpatient" clientage. At first 
thought, this may seem to be a most peculiar conclusion 
— to make hospital service a measure of health rather 
than of disease — but it seems to me that the conditions 



180 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

warrant such a conclusion. The group of persons 
which is under medical surveillance at the Roosevelt 
Hospital, a variable quantity, numbering roughly one 
thousand at any given time, is made up mostly of 
persons suffering from more or less chronic diseases 
which need only occasional attention and direction on 
the part of the physician at the hospital. This attention 
can be had only through a personal visit by the patient 
to the hospital, and to make such a visit, the person must 
have sufficient strength and vitality to undertake the 
ordeal of a considerable walk or car ride, and not infre- 
quently a tedious and uncomfortable delay in the wait- 
ing room. This, it seems to me, would be undertaken 
only on days when the patient felt at his best, or at least 
could not be undertaken when at his worst. The class 
of persons who patronize the "outpatient" department 
of the hospitals are usually not the sort who apply for 
medical advice until health conditions are serious, a fact 
which would be in support of my conclusion regarding 
this class of data, viz., that the number receiving atten- 
tion varies directly as the health of the class we are study- 
ing, emphasizing the fact that the class studied consists 
of roughly one thousand persons, all of whom are in a 
state of general ill-health. If this be true, the curve 
marked "Hospital" upon each of the figures of this 
chapter is indicative of health, when its readings are 
above the heavy "expectancy" curve, and of ill-health, 
when below. For the curve marked "Policemen," the 
conditions are exactly the reverse, since an excess of men 
upon the sick list means an excess of ill-health. 

I recognize fully that in studying the question of 
health through a tabulation of outpatients at the hos- 



HEALTH AND THE WEATHER 



181 



pital, an undesirable element is introduced, viz., that of 
the direct effect of certain weather states, such as exces- 
sive cold and heat, hurricanes and bad storms, in pre- 
venting the patients from making a visit, even though 
the general health be not influenced by such conditions. 
A study based upon the daily calls made by a sufficient 
number of physicians in their regular practice would 
eliminate to a considerable extent this element, but I 
have not been able, though I have made many attempts, 



JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. 



OCCURRENCE 

MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. 



OCT. NOV. DEC. 



30% 
20% 

10% 



20% 



\ 
























V 

\ 


^ 
























\ 
\ 

v.- 




\ 
\ 
















/ 
/ 
/ 








\ 






V 








i 


/ 

/ 


— 


/ 






\ 












**^# 
















s"~~~ 






















^~' 













10V 



20^; 



■ H0SPJTAL 



(.POLICEMEN 

Figure 31 



■DEATH 



to secure the necessary data. If this paragraph should 
happen to meet the eyes of physicians practicing in New 
York City, having such records, I should be pleased either 
to furnish the meteorological data for their tabulation, 
or to take their records and complete the study myself. 

The fourth class of data considered in the chapter, 
those for Death, need little explanation or comment. 

An excess of death would mean in all probability a 
general lowering of the health plane, though it would 
seem from some of the curves as if certain conditions 



182 , WEATHER INFLUENCES 

which were hardly felt at all by persons in perfect or 
only slightly impaired health were peculiarly disastrous 
to those in extremis. 

Occurrence. The facts shown upon Figure 31 are 
not at all peculiar to this study and are accessible to any 
one upon recourse to the records, without use of meteor- 
ological charts or records. All the curves are in a gen- 
eral way corroborative of one another — except for the 
fact that the policemen seem to be immune to the effects 
of hot weather — and are, moreover, in accord with the 
indication of the curve on Figure 4, which shows the 
absence of pupils from the public schools. In a general 
way, the curves would indicate that health is poor during 
the first two months of the year, since many policemen 
were off duty, and few patients visited at the hospital. 
The death rate is not, however, particularly high, and it 
may be that the failure of the other two classes to get out 
of doors was not due to absolute ill health, but to the 
prevailing inclemency of the weather. In other words, 
our curves may simply show an inability on the part of 
reasonably good health to register itself as required by 
our problem. It does not seem to me, however, that this 
is the case, particularly with the policemen, since they 
are all men selected especially with regard to health and 
strength and would hardly wish for financial reasons to 
be laid off without some good excuse. Christmas and 
New Year celebrations may be considered such by them 
and on this curve, — though not upon those for definite 
meteorological conditions, — would such absences show. 
The fact that the death rate varies so little from the 
normal during the coldest months, while the other two 
measures of health do to so marked an extent, are indica- 



HEALTH AND THE WEATHER 183 

tive of the fact that the conditions of the sick room are 
under perfect control, except in cases of poverty. Low 
temperatures are the only weather states peculiarly 
characteristic of winter and the patient in the sick room 
need not know that the mercury is low out of doors. 
While this is true for the conditions of cold, it is not at 
all so for the other extreme of the temperature scale, as 
is shown by the tremendous mortality for the hottest 
month. If a larger number of years had been covered 
by the study, the great difference between July and 
August would not be shown, as it is due largely, if not 
entirely, to the fact that the former month for one of 
the years studied contained one of those terrible hot 
waves which New York City occasionally expriences, 
swelling the death rate to an almost unprecedented ex- 
tent. Such a wave more frequently comes in August, 
and the crest in the curve for July must be interpreted 
as an accident of conditions. 

The excess in the number of hospital patients for 
March and the fluctuation of the curve until the arrival 
of cold weather are, perhaps, rather measures of the size 
of the hospital clientage or group of persons who are 
making use of its advantages, than of ability to get 
about. I have stated that the former is roughly one 
thousand, but it is a variable quantity and the daily 
attendance at the clinic might, at a given period of the 
year, be large, either because a large percentage of a 
small group was in attendance, or because a smaller per- 
centage of a larger group were with some regularity in 
waiting. March is not an easy month in which to get 
about in New York City, and it seems probable that the 
latter condition existed at that time. 



184 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

In light of the fact that the July death rate was so 
large, and that a considerable preponderance of ill- 
health is indicated by our hospital curve, it is not to be 
expected that the sick list should be the smallest of the 
year for the policemen, yet that is what we find. Both 
this figure and the next (temperature) seem to show 
that our metropolitan guardians of the peace are abso- 
lutely unaffected by any extreme of heat covered by this 
study, a fact which places them in a class by themselves, 
so far as my observation goes. It is true that they are 
picked men, but are as susceptible to some weather influ- 
ences as are any of the other classes studied. It is pos- 
sible that a wise selection of uniform has contributed to 
this result. If so, we should all do well to model our 
hot weather apparel as nearly as possible after it. 

Doctor W. A. Guy of London (see Jour, Statis. Soc. 
London, 6:133), undertook, many years ago, a study 
similar to mine of the hospital outpatients; except that 
it has only to do with the seasons of the year, it furnishes 
some interesting comparisons. 

His statistics were for the outpatient department 
of King's College Hospital, London, for years preced- 
ing 1842, covering 9,000 cases. He also considered the 
London death-rate. The meteorological data consisted 
of monthly and quarterly means constructed by the 
Hoyal Society and appended to the Register- General's 
report. His first table is as follows; 



HEALTH AND THE WEATHER 



185 





First 
Quarter 


Second 
Quarter 


Third 
Quarter 


Fourth 
Quarter 


Mortality of London 


12,805 

2,510 

41.3 

3.69 

38° 

29.91 

2,030 


10,494 

2,148 

57.2 

3.03 

50° 

29.93 

2,373 


11,177 

2,183 

64.1 

9.19 

58° 

29.81 

2,571 


11,910 


Mortality of Central District 

Mean temperature 


2,345 
46.5 


Rain in inches 


6.01 


Dew point (mean) 


43° 


Mean Barometer 


29.88 


Sickness 


2,080 







From this table, he asserts that there is no relation, 
whether direct or inverse, between mortality and any 
single condition of the air, but that the sickness follows 
the exact order of the temperature and the dew point, 
varying directly as each of them. 

Having then discovered, apparently, some relation 
between weather conditions and sickness, he studies, in 
an interesting way, the effects of these meteorological 
conditions upon specific maladies with the result that he 
seems to discover two classes of diseases, one of which 
varies directly and the other inversely as the weather 
conditions. Although Dr. Guy's conclusions may not be 
of great value, the whole study is extremely interesting 
as showing the perfection with which the inductive 
method was applied to scientific investigation more than 
sixty years ago, and is well worth a reading on that score, 
if upon no other. 

Dr. Arthur Mitchell also presents in Nature ( 12 :321) 
some interesting facts relative to the prevalence of 
scarlet fever in London at different seasons of the year 
and under different weather conditions. 

This paper gives the result of an investigation, the pur- 
pose of which was to determine whether the seasonal in- 
fluence of the weather upon deaths from scarlet fever, as 
shown by the curve constructed from the figures of thirty 



186 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

years, would present itself if the period were broken 
up, and the curves constructed for the several smaller 
periods embraced in the long one. In London there 
have been six epidemics from scarlet fever, reaching their 
maxima in 1844, '48, '54, '59, '63 and 1870. Curves 
were constructed representing the average weekly deaths 
from scarlet fever for each of the six periods embracing 
these epidemics. These curves were then compared with 
the curve for thirty years, from 1845 to 1874, the lead- 
ing features of which are that death from those diseases 
is above the average from the beginning of September 
till the end of the year, and below the average for the 
rest of the year ; and that the period of highest death rate 
is from the beginning of October to the end of November, 
when it rises to about 60 per cent, above the average ; and 
the period of the lowest death rate is March, April and 
May, when it is about 33 per cent, below the average. 
On comparing the curves for the six short periods of the 
thirty years, with the general curve, a remarkable simi- 
larity is found. The steady obedience to climatic influ- 
ence, of fatality from a disease so epidemic as scarlet 
fever is very remarkable, and the more so, inasmuch as 
no other disease, with the single exception of typhoid 
fever, attains its maximum fatality in London under 
conditions of weather peculiar to October and November. 
Temperature. If our conclusion regarding the rela- 
tion between health and hospital attendance is a correct 
one, we have unmistakable evidence upon Figure 32 that 
low temperatures carry with them general ill health, which 
gradually improves as the weather grows warmer until a 
mean temperature of 70 degrees or thereabouts is reached, 
at which point the heat begins to be disastrous. As is 



HEALTH AND THE WEATHER 



187 



shown by the curve for policemen, the sick list is 80 per 
cent, larger when the mercury is hovering about the zero 
point than when it is highest in the tube, and the varia- 
tion from one extreme of temperature to the other is 

TEMPERATURE 

TO 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 



80 
60 
40 
20 
O 
20% 

































































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N s 


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80% 
60% 
40% 
20% 

O 
20% 



-HOSPITAL 



POLICEMEN 

Figure 32 



accompanied by an almost equally regular change in the 
sick list. With absentees from school the curve is prac- 
tically parallel till a temperature of 65 degrees (mean) 
is reached, when the children begin to feel the effect of 
the heat unfavorably, and for the highest temperature 
group the attendance is worse than for the lowest. With 
the applicants for aid at the hospital, the same evidences 
of ill health are shown for the lower temperatures; at 
about 40 degrees the influence beginning to be favorable 
to health, with slightly unfavorable effects being in evi- 
dence for temperatures above 70 degrees. All things 
considered, this is what should be expected from the 
study of the occurrence table (Fig. 31), and does not 
vary much from what general experience, apart from 
any recourse to statistics, would lead us to predict. The 
curve based upon the death rate shows that variations in 



188 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



5' 

10 


10 

15 


T5 

20 


20 

25 


25 

30 


30 

35 


35 
40 


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HORIZONTAL LINES SHOW 

DIFFERENCES OF 20 PER CENT 


































































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Figure 33 



HEALTH AND THE WEATHER 189 

temperature have little effect upon mortality until exces- 
sive heat of 70 degrees and above is reached. As has 
been suggested, it is usually possible to increase the 
temperature of the sick room by means of fire when 
desirable, but to reduce it by artificial means is, with 
present systems of refrigeration, quite another matter; 
and we find excessive heat to be the most deadly of all 
the meteorological conditions studied, the death rate 
nearly doubling for temperatures above 80 degrees. 
Those from 40 degrees to 65 degrees seem to be the most 
manageable in the sick room, the death rate being below 
the normal at that time. 

Figure 33, which is constructed in every particular as 
was Figure 14, shows in a very conclusive manner that 
only the upper extreme of the temperature scale has any 
considerable effect upon mortality. Upon it the death 
rate for each month is shown, so far as the influence of 
the varying temperatures of the month are concerned. 
As may be seen, the entire variation in temperature for 
each of the winter months is 40 to 50 degrees, with hardly 
any variation in the death rate between the two extremes. 
For the summer months, however, the facts are quite 
different, August having a temperature variation of but 
20 degrees, with a death rate 60 per cent, greater for the 
group 80°-85° than for that of 70°-75°. Each of the 
summer months shows the same general effect, viz., a 
very rapid increase in mortality as the thermometer rises 
above 75 degrees. This fact is especially interesting in 
connection with that shown by Figure 14, which is, that 
assault and battery do not increase with the hot days of 
summer, but are especially aggravated by the unseason- 



190 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



ably hot days of the spring and autumn months, which 
have little or no influence on the death rate. 

Barometer. It was impossible to secure the baro- 
metric readings of the two years covered by my study of 
the death rate ; so no curve for that is shown upon Figure 
34. Those for the policemen off duty and the hospital 
patients, however, are given, and show beyond a doubt 
that periods of low pressure are accompanied by sick- 
ness ; that moderate pressure is conducive to the best of 





BAROMETER 

29.2.-29.3 29.4 29.5 2^.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 30. 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.5 


30^ 

10% 

































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30% 
20% 
10% 


yo% 

10% 
30% 



1QS.PITAL POLICEMEN 

Figure 34 



health and that illness is somewhat above the normal in 
prevalence again when the barometer is high. 

In this latter particular the study of health differs 
from all the others given in this volume, for in the cases of 
all the other classes of data, deficiencies in occurrence are 
shown for high atmospheric pressures. This is an inter- 
esting fact, since the others have to do with activities — 
mental or physical, — while this is based upon sickness, 
which is, in a sense, a cessation of activity. The only 
other barometric curve which even approximately resem- 



HEALTH AND THE WEATHER 



191 



bles these in this respect is that for clerical errors (Fig. 
21) , and with that, only a normal prevalence of mental 
slips is indicated. For the lower barometrical readings 
the curves for health resemble those for most of the 
other classes of data. The curve for school attendance 
(Fig. 6) corroborates in a very striking manner those 
upon Figure 34, showing the same indications of ill 
health when the barometer is high that are there ex- 
pressed. On the whole, these curves go far toward 
proving that the active disorder of the schoolroom, the 
penitentiary, and upon the street, vary directly with 
health, for we have here shown conditions of air pressure 
which are accompanied by prevailing illness, and have 
upon other figures shown the same conditions of pres- 
sure to be conducive to good behavior. These facts are 
more fully discussed in the concluding chapter. 

Humidity. Upon Figure 35 we have again full cor- 
roboration of the relation already stated between health 



HUMIDITY 

60 65 70 75 



85 



95 100 



20% 
10% 



10% 
20% 





















































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10% 



10% 
20% 



POLICEMEN 

Figure 35 



and misconduct. Here, both with the policemen and 
the attendants at the clinic, are indications of the best of 



192 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

health during periods of low humidity, with the reverse 
conditions of health for the clinic at the other extreme of 
atmospheric saturation. But active disorder has been 
shown to be universally high under the former conditions 
and low during the latter. Upon the policemen, great 
humidities seem to have no disastrous effect; in fact, 
they seem to thrive under them, another evidence of their 
immunity, at least to some atmospheric influences. 

With the school children the case is similar to that for the 
hospital clientage, attendance being at its poorest when 
the humidity is high. Within the sick room, as is shown 
by the curve for death, different degrees of atmospheric 
moisture seem to have little effect until we reach a point 
near to saturation, at which we find a marked increase in 
mortality. It is not strange that the curve is practically 
negative for lower humidities — and I attach little weight 
to fluctuations like those for the groups from 60 to 80 — 
for the humidity of comparatively tight, artificially- 
heated rooms is but slightly influenced by the outside 
atmosphere, and may be kept nearly uniform. I have 
on many occasions found differences as great as 20 per 
cent, between the humidity of the outside and the inside 
air, usually with the preponderance of moisture on the 
outside. An interesting problem is suggested by this 
fact, for I have shown in other chapters that periods of 
low humidity are accompanied by excesses in conduct 
which are indicative of peculiarly unbalanced emotions. 
If such be true for out of door conditions, why not for 
indoor? How much of our instability of temper is due 
to furnace heat and a crackling air? I shall leave the 
question for consideration at some later time. 

Wind. If anything of an unexpected nature has 



HEALTH AND THE WEATHER 



193 



been conclusively shown by this whole study of meteor- 
ological influences, it is the peculiar effect of calms. 
These effects are summarized in a later chapter, but 
Figure 36, together with the attendance curve upon 
Figure 8, shows beyond a doubt that atmospheric move- 
ments of less than 100 miles for the twenty- four hours 
■ — virtual calms — are attended by quite unexpected 
health conditions. For instance, the number of absen- 
tees at the public schools, normally about 9 per cent., 
jumps to 27 per cent., an excess of 300 per cent., reck- 

WIND 

100 150 '200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 




.HOSPITAL 



POLICEMEN 



Figure 36 

oned in terms of expectancy, over the average for all 
velocities. For the same condition, too, the sick list at 
police headquarters is a long one, the hospital patients 
are too sick to get out in large numbers, and mortality is 
high, a combination of circumstances which can hardly 
be accidental when we consider the number of data con- 
sidered. 

That this unusual prevalence of ill health and death 
u 



194 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

for a weather state which carries with it none of the 
painful and uncomfortable qualities of extreme cold or 
heat or wind, is due to a lack of ventilation on a large 
scale (see page 262), there is no doubt in my mind. 
With sufficient movement to keep the mixture of gases 
which compose our atmosphere at their normal propor- 
tions, quite the reverse health conditions are brought 
about, remaining at their best until movements of from 
300 to 400 miles per day are reached, at which point we 
have indications of unfavorable effects. It will be noted 
that the groups 250-350 miles mark the beginning of 
evidences of sickness, both at police headquarters and at 
the hospital, while the death rate is not materially influ- 
enced until much greater velocities are reached. We 
might infer from this fact that winds of from ten to 
fifteen miles per hour (250 to 350 total movement) are 
the lowest which are considered an excuse on the part of 
a person not feeling his best, for not venturing out, 
either upon his beat or for medical advice. The curves 
for wind, as a whole, tend to prove that ill health and 
good behavior among the classes studied, go together, 
since for great atmospheric movements, as well as for 
calms, we find both conditions prevailing. 

The increased mortality for slight movements of the 
atmosphere which I have pointed out has been comment- 
ed upon by Dr. S. A. Hill in an article, "The Effect of 
the Weather upon the Death Rate and Crime in India" 
{Nature, 29:338). 

The study is based upon a record of 7,311,013 deaths 
from all causes in certain provinces of India for the 
years 1878-1882 inclusive. His unit of time is the 
month, and he makes a comparison of the average 



HEALTH AND THE WEATHER 



195 



monthly mortality and certain forms of crime with the 
means of temperature, daily range of temperature, 
humidity, rainfall, and the velocity of the wind. He 
shows : 

First: That the effect of rainfall upon health is so 
very indirect (through the production of food) as to 
form no part of the problem. 

Second : That the relation between the death rate and 
the movement of the wind is inverse ; the proportionate 
increase of death being 35.6 per million per month for a 
decrease in the velocity of the wind amounting to only 
one mile in twenty-four hours. In the months of Octo- 
ber and November, when the so-called malarial diseases 
attain their maxima, the air is almost absolutely still ; and 
there can be little doubt that if a moderate breeze were 
occasionally to spring up at this time of the year, so as 
to dissipate the malaria, or at all events to mix it with 
good air from other districts or from above, the effect 
would be an immediate decrease in the death-rate. 

It is not plain from the paper what the effect of the 
other meteorological conditions is upon the death-rate. 

Character of the Day and Precipitation. Judg- 
ing from the three classes of data considered in this 

CHARACTER OF THE DAY AND PRECIPITATION 
FAIR PT.CL'DY. CL'DY. NONE SAVE 

10% 10> o 



10>S 





■A 


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rf" 


>-* 





10% 



10% 



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ox 



.HOSPITAL «. POLICEMEN — DEATH 

Figure 37 



chapter, which necessitates a venturing out of doors in 
order to be counted, i, e. } school attendance, the police 



196 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

sick list, and the hospital applicants, we should infer that 
health is at its best on fair, dry days; based, however, 
upon the death rate, we should arrive at the opposite 
conclusion, for mortality is at its greatest under pre- 
cisely such meteorological conditions, though not greater 
to a sufficient extent to carry much weight. In studying 
weather states which present such noticeably different 
characteristics as do those which we are considering, 
involving the whole gamut of weather, from the blinding 
storm to the most brilliant sunshine, the physical difficul- 
ties and actual danger to health from a venturing forth 
must be given full weight. Just how much these facts 
influence our curves we cannot tell, but undoubtedly to 
a considerable extent. It is possible that if the general 
health of the classes studied was the same for days of 
each of the characteristics shown upon the figure, that 
our curves would be as they are, simply as a result of 
precautionary and preventive measures taken by those 
solicitous for the health of the persons who form the 
basis of our tabulation. That is, a wife might keep the 
husband from his beat, not because he was ill, but because 
she was afraid the storm would make him so. Such 
cases are clearly within the realm of possibility and 
would, if enough blue-coats were so protected, give our 
curve the characteristics which it presents. I doubt, 
however, if such care would be exercised unless some 
symptoms of disease had already shown themselves, 
which the storm might be expected to aggravate; if so, 
we have disease, the primary cause of absence from duty, 
and not the weather, which would give validity to the 
curve. With the invalids under hospital care and the 
school children less serious symptoms than for the blue- 



HEALTH AND THE WEATHER 197 

coats might be taken as an excuse for remaining at home. 
Still I am of the opinion that save for the most excep- 
tional weather, such must be present and that the evi-* 
dence which our curves gives us, that general health is aU 
its worst during bad weather, is valid. It certainly is in 
accordance with our general experience. 

Summary. Sickness and death are generally more 
prevalent during the winter and early spring months, 
though the latter (death) is tremendously increased 
by the intensely hot spells of the summer; sickness is 
aggravated by low temperatures, which do not much 
influence the death rate. The latter is, however, sent up 
by great heat; sickness is far above the normal during 
low barometrical conditions, and somewhat above for the 
other extreme. Both it and death show deficiencies for 
low humidities, with excesses for high, though the effects 
are not very pronounced ; both are above the normal for 
calms; below for moderate winds; and again above for 
greater velocities; both are excessive for cloudy, wet 
days. 



CHAPTER XI 



SUICIDE AND THE WEATHER 

Much has been written and rewritten on the subject 
of suicide. It has long been a favorite topic with the 
student of social statistics, and has been scientifically 
treated from the standpoint of race, of nationality, of 
social condition, of occupation and of climate. Whole 
volumes have been devoted to the problem and magazine 
articles almost without number. It is not, however, my 
intention in this chapter even to summarize the conclu- 
sions arrived at in all this mass of literature, but to discuss 
a phase of the subject which can not have escaped the 
reader of the daily paper, and which has long proved an 
enigma to the special student of the problem of self- 
destruction — that is, the daily fluctuation in the occur- 
rence of suicide. Why is it that upon picking up our 
daily paper one morning we see the heading "Epidemic 
of Suicide," and find the details of six or eight or even a 
dozen successful or unsuccessful attempts recorded for 
the previous day — a number greater than for the whole 
week preceding? Yet such is often the case — so often, 
in fact, as not infrequently to have been the subject of 
editorial comment, with vague queries as to the cause of 
such a wave of emotional depression and consequent 
self-destruction. 

198 



SUICIDE AND THE WEATHER 199 

The answers to this query have been many and varied, 
among the most frequent of which has been chance. 
Mimicry and suggestion have been proposed, and with- 
out doubt have their place in the solution of the problem 
of the periodical fluctuation of the suicide curve, but still 
can not account for all its peculiarities. The weather 
has also been suggested as the cause of the fluctuation 
referred to, and it is to the following out of this promis- 
ing clew that this chapter is confined. 

How much of all this fluctuation can be attributed to 
an east wind or leaden sky — in other words, to "weather 
effects?" In order to answer this question, we must 
define our term "weather effects." From the stand- 
point of our present study we should include within the 
category of weather effects any marked inequality in 
the occurrence of suicide which may be found to bear a 
fixed relation to fluctuations of the weather. We con- 
clude that a fixed relation between a given weather state 
and an unusual prevalence of suicides is causal and not 
accidental. This is based upon an inductive study of 
large numbers of data, and is as valid as such studies can 
well be. 

The problem, then, consists in discovering these fixed 
relations. It is in no sense an attempt to account for 
suicide, but for the irregularity of its occurrence. Man 
always has sought, and perhaps always will seek self- 
destruction as the relief for sorrow, fancied or real, and 
the basal reason for this is not to be found in the 
weather. We would not argue that the weather, save 
in very exceptional cases, drives people to suicide; but, 
on the strength of what follows, that under some weather 
states, other things are peculiarly liable to drive people 



200 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

to the act. In other words, that some meteorological 
conditions so affect the mental state, so influence the 
emotional balance, that ordinarily endurable things 
become unendurable, and life seems no longer worth the 
living. 

This problem, which seems to show a causal nexus 
between the weather and the mental state of the suicide, 
is a comparison of the occurrence of suicide under dif- 
ferent meteorological conditions, with the normal preva- 
lence of those conditions, noting the excess or deficiency. 
The data were collected for New York City and the city 
of Denver, Colo., and although the climatic conditions 
of the two cities are very different, it is in no sense a 
comparative study for them. In fact, so few data (two 
hundred and sixty suicides) were procurable for the 
western town that but little weight is given to conclu- 
sions based upon them compared with the much greater 
number for New York City, hence the study of the 
former is only incidentally mentioned. 

In order to procure the proper data of suicide for the 
city of New York, the records of the coroner for five 
years were carefully gone over (some 28,000 separate 
death certificates), disclosing the particulars of 1,962 
suicides, and the exact number (varying from to 9) 
tabulated for each of the 1,826 days of those years. 
Next the police records for the same five years were 
studied, and the number of unsuccessful attempts for 
each day noted. This record is quite complete, since in 
the eyes of the law, any one attempting suicide is a 
criminal, and must be so branded on the books. From 
these two sources were obtained the exact number of 
persons who for each day of the period covered, were of 



SUICIDE AND THE WEATHER 201 

suicidal intent, unless some unsuccessful attempts es- 
caped the surveillance of the police. In the present 
study, neither age, sex, nationality, nor occupation is 
considered ; simply the fact that some one wished to die 
by his own hand — for the five years — 2,946 in all for the 
city of New York. 

Upon each of the figures used in illustration of this 
chapter the general meteorological condition is indicated 
at the top ; the definite group readings are given in small 
figures upon the heavy vertical lines which represent the 
occurrence of suicide for the group. Expectancy for 
each group is represented by the vertical distance A-B, 
and excess or deficiency graphically shown in percent- 
ages of this, which may be read by means of the scale at 
the left. 

The entire vertical lines (ordinates) are for the New 
York study and the dotted ones for Denver. For the 
latter the meteorological groups are, in some cases, 
double in size those of the eastern city. In every case, 
excess or deficiency of suicides is indicated by the posi- 
tion of the top of the ordinate with reference to the 
horizontal expectancy curve marked A- A. 

Monthly Distribution. Figure 38 indicates very 
wide variation in the number of suicides occurring in 
the different months of the year, generally speaking, the 
heated months showing excesses and the cold ones defi- 
ciencies when compared with the normal. May and 
August show the greatest numbers, with the least for 
February, in spite of the fact that the shortness of the 
last-named month is taken into consideration. 

It may be seen by an inspection of the figures that for 
New York the increase in number for each month from 



202 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



DISTRIBUTION 



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February to August, and the decrease for the other 
months of the year, would give an almost perfectly reg- 
ular crescendo-diminuendo to the occurrence curve were 

it not for the fact that 
April and May are 
raised out of their posi- 
tion by unusual excess- 
es. Why April, which 
in its general weather 
characteristics is Ely- 
sian compared with its 
immediate predecessor, 
should show one-fourth 
more suicides, and 
May, which by common 
acclaim is one of the 
most delightful of the 
calendar, should present a number surpassed only by 
sweltering August, it is not easy to see. Yet such is 
the case for the five years covered by this study, and 
similar conditions have been demonstrated by other 
students of the subject. Morselli, in his exhaustive 
treatise for the European nations, finds that for thirty- 
two separate studies made by him, the maximum num- 
bers were in June eighteen times and in May eight times. 
In explanation of the fact, he says: "Suicide is not 
influenced so much by the extreme heat of the advanced 
summer season as by the early spring and summer, which 
seize upon the organism not yet acclimatized and still 
under the influence of the cold season." There is little 
doubt that the end of winter brings with it a depleted 
condition of vitality, both nervous and physical; yet I 



Figure 38 



SUICIDE AND THE WEATHER 203 

am inclined to think that the fact can not wholly account 
for the great increase in the later spring months. In 
the conclusion of this chapter the condition is again 
alluded to, and at this point I would simply call attention 
to the fact that the increase comes with the season of the 
year when rejuvenating Nature is in her brightest mood. 

Denver. As will be seen from Figure 38, the distri- 
bution of suicide throughout the months of the year was 
found to be very similar for the western city to what it 
was for New York. We have the deficiency for the 
colder months, and the excess for the heated season, with 
the greatest number of all — nearly double the normal — 
for May. The curve seems to show that heat was much 
more provocative of self-destruction in Denver than at 
the sea level, the excesses for the hot months being sev- 
eral times as great. 

Mr. William B. Bailey, in a recent number of the 
Yale Review (May, 1903), has made some interesting 
statements regarding the distribution of suicide through- 
out the days of the week and also the hours of the day, 
which, although it has no bearing upon our problem of 
weather influences, is interesting from the general stand- 
point of distribution. His study covers the whole 
United States, considers the two sexes separately, and 
comprises 29,344 cases of self-destruction. He finds 
that for each 700 suicides the different days of the week 
figure as follows : 



107.3 


123.1 


118.4 


122.6 


98.7 


94.8 


97. 


93.5 


88.4 


87.6 


98.6 


89.5 


91.6 


88.9 



204 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

Day of the week . Total Males Females 

Sunday 110.8 

Monday 119.2 

Tuesday 97.2 

Wednesday 96.3 

Thursday 88.2 

Friday 96.6 

Saturday 91.0 

Concerning the table he says : "Monday is the favor- 
ite day, followed by Sunday. From Monday down to 
and including Thursday there is a gradual fall, but on 
Friday there is a sudden rise that can not be easily 
explained. Saturday is, next to Thursday, the lowest day 
in the week. For those who have endured throughout the 
week, there is the pay day at hand followed by a day of 
rest. Among the males, Monday is preeminently the 
day for suicide; the money spent, and the spirits are 
often depressed as a result of the artificial stimulation 
of Saturday night and Sunday. Females prefer Sun- 
day to Monday, but both are extraordinarily high. Re- 
ligious excitement may have an effect upon this, but 
nearly a third of the suicides on account of domestic 
troubles come on Sunday. The family is there together 
for the day, giving greater opportunity for quarrels, or 
the husband may be intoxicated and the home seem 
dreary to the females." 

In general the tables correspond with that of Guerry, 
based upon nearly seven thousand cases, though the 
latter shows suicide to be below the normal for Sunday. 
He ascribes the weekly rhythm of self-destruction, and 
also that for the days of the month to the effects of pay 



SUICIDE AND THE WEATHER 205 

day, and believes that were it the custom for workers to 
be paid their wages, and bills fall due on the middle of 
the week or month, instead of at its end, we should find 
suicides most frequent where they are now most rare. 

In groups of three hours each, the distribution of 
suicide throughout the hours of the day and night was 
shown by Mr. Bailey to be as follows, for a total of 
10,000 cases. 

Hour of day Total Males Females 

12 p. m. to 3 a. m 506 404 102 

3 a. m. to 6 a. m 789 642 147 

6 a. m. to 9 a. m 1,098 908 190 

9 a. m. to 12 m 1,294 1,013 ' 281 

12 m. to 3 p. m 1,398 1,082 316 

3 p. m. to 6 p. m 1,450 1,115 335 

6 p.m. to 9 p.m. 1,408 1,096 312 

9 p. m. to 12 p. m 1,592 1,202 390 

Unknown 465 319 146 



10,000 7,781 2,219 



This table shows that 3,687 cases occur before noon, 
and 5,848 during the remainder of the day. Of the 
cases of murder, followed by suicide, roughly 70 per 
cent, were found to have occurred during the six hours 
from 6 p. m. to midnight. 

Studies in France, Germany and Switzerland have 
shown quite the reverse condition, for in those countries 
suicide is more frequent during the morning hours than 
at any other time of day, from noon until about 3 p. m. 
coming next. On the question of rhythm in the occur- 
rence of suicide, Dr. Strahan, in his "Suicide and Insan- 



206 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

ity," writes (pp. 158-159) : "The yearly variation in 
self-destruction differs from these weekly and hourly 
variations in this : that instead of the exciting cause com- 
ing to the individual from the outside world, it comes to 
him from within. There is an annual rhythmic rise and 
fall which affects all animate nature. With the ap- 
proach of spring and the increase of temperature, there 
is a general wakening from the period of comparative 
rest in which the preceding cold season has been passed. 
With this awakening, every function is quickened and 
the procreative, which is the highest of all functions, is 
excited to most vigorous action. During this period of 
spring and early summer the organism is working at its 
highest tension, and every function of mind and body is 
more active than at any other period of the year. It is 
not surprising, then, that at this portion of the yearly 
cycle we should meet with the most break downs of the 
machine. 

"In this annual quickening of the functions of the 
organism we do not find a true cause of suicide, any more 
than we find a true cause of crime, immorality, or mad- 
ness. It merely acts as an exciting cause to those pre- 
disposed. The normal or healthy person passes through 
this natural rhythmic vital disturbance without injury; 
it is only the abnormal to whom it acts as an incentive to 
unnatural acts. To the healthy individual, the height- 
ened vital activity of spring no more suggests suicide 
than it does madness ; to the abnormal it suggests that to 
which he is already predisposed. Thus, while one gives 
way to crime or the indulgence of the passions, another 
will become insane or commit suicide. It is a disturbing 
agent of great power, and acts in overthrowing the un- 



SUICIDE AND THE WEATHER 



207 



stable, exactly as accidental disturbances of equal power 
may act at any period." 

Temperature. Figure 39 seems to show plainly two 
things: First, that the greatest excesses of suicide are 
found at the two extremes of the temperature scale, 
when the conditions entailed the maximum of actual 
misery, and second, that the next greatest excesses occur 

TEMPERATURE 





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■ NX.CJTY 



DENVER 



Pigrure 39 

during the pleasantest conditions of temperature. I 
would here, however, call attention to the fact that upon 
all the figures, readings at the extremes of the conditions 
are based upon fewer data than are those nearer the mid- 
dle, hence are more liable to accidental error. For exam- 
ple, although the temperature group, zero to five degrees 
shows an excess of two hundred and ten per cent., the 
condition occurred but twice in the five years studied, 



208 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

and the whole number of suicides was but eight, while 
the excess of fifteen per cent, for the group sixty-five to 
seventy degrees is based upon two hundred and sixty- 
eight. For this reason the value of the figures at the 
extremes of all the readings, except Figure 38 and the 
upper limit of Figure 41, at which point there were data 
enough to give validity to the findings, is lessened when 
compared with other points in the curves. 

Taking this fact into consideration, the greatest 
numerical excesses in suicide occur in the temperature 
group from forty-five to seventy degrees. This places 
them within the category of most agreeable tempera- 
tures, for within those limits are found the monthly 
means of April, May, June, September and October. 
The deficiencies of suicide occur in the groups from 
twenty to forty-five degrees, conditions which are not 
generally considered most agreeable and within which 
are found the monthly means for the colder months of 
the year. 

These results, however, are corroborative of the find- 
ings for the study of monthly occurrence, which show 
deficiencies for those months. The excesses for extreme 
conditions of heat and cold are perhaps only what might 
be expected. In the thickly populated tenements of the 
city, great heat becomes so oppressive as hardly to be 
endured, and at the other extreme of temperature, when 
the mercury of the thermometer is only in the bulb, both 
personal misery and a feeling of sympathy for a de- 
pendent family might prompt one to self-destruction as 
the last resort. 

This curve does not differ materially from that of the 
assault and battery, except that in the latter it is shown 



SUICIDE AND THE WEATHER 209 

that for the highest temperature ever experienced, those 
misdemeanors, as recorded by the police, show deficien- 
cies. For them the numbers increase regularly up to a 
temperature of eighty-five degrees, but above that point 
they fall off very rapidly. This fact, however, is not 
hard to account for, since a considerable amount of 
energy is required to be objectionably out of order, and 
at such conditions of heat this seems hardly available. 

The curve for Denver so nearly resembles that just 
discussed as to need but little comment. The only par- 
ticular in which the two materially differ is that of the 
seeming effects of low temperatures. With them, the 
excess noted for New York City is lacking. If, as we 
have argued, actual physical misery is an incentive to 
self-destruction, this peculiarity is not surprising, for the 
thermometer is no measure of the discomfiture produced 
by cold in the two places. The so-called "wet bulb ther- 
mometer" registering "sensible temperature" would do 
so approximately, but it is not used in the construction of 
our figures. In the dry air of the altitudes, as is indeed 
true for the dry air of our Minnesota and Dakota plains, 
temperatures of zero and therabouts can be borne with 
much less suffering than those a score of degrees higher 
on the sea-board with its biting east winds, and without 
doubt the fact is shown in the deficiencies in suicides at 
the lower end of our Denver temperature curve. 

Barometer. Considering the liability that accidental 
conditions affect the validity of our curves at their ex- 
tremes, the results shown in Figure 40 prove conclusively 
that low conditions of pressure are accompanied by 
excesses in suicides, with corresponding deficiencies for 
the reverse barometrical readings. This is true both for 

15 



210 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



the New York City and the Denver curves, the two 
presenting very similar characteristics for their entire 
lengths. Some interesting conclusions seem to be sug- 
gested by a comparison of them with the curve for 



BAROMETER 



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3 



Figure 40 

precipitation (Fig. 43). The latter shows that suicides 
are deficient (12 per cent. N. Y.) upon days when 
there is some precipitation, L e., stormy days, while 
the ones under consideration show them to be excessive 
during periods of low barometer. But the barometer 
readings are commonly low just preceding and during 
the earlier stages of storm, and seldom at other times. 
This fact would seem to restrict the period of excessive 



SUICIDE AND THE WEATHER 211 

suicides, so far as its relations to storms is concerned, to 
those times, but the fact that Figure 43 shows that they 
are few upon wet days eliminates the storm period, and 
leaves us only the period just preceding storms as one 
of especial self-destruction. If so, it is precisely the 
period of "storm feeling" which is found so unendurable 
to sensitive natures, and which has figured so promi- 
nently in weather lore and literature. From our curves 
it would seem as if the man or woman on the verge of 
despair found this the one straw too much, and ended 
it all. 

Humidity. The results of the New York City study 
of suicide for this condition (Fig. 41) are in themselves 
conclusive, but directly opposite to those found in sim- 
ilar studies made for assault and battery, deportment 
in the public schools and the New York City peniten- 
tiary, and the behavior of the insane. For suicide, the 
excesses are for high humidities; for the others men- 
tioned they were for low. 

The showing for suicides seems to be what would be 
naturally expected if we were to theorize on the matter, 
as those unendurable "sticky" days, when one feels it is 
his prerogative to be "out of sorts," are usually of high 
humidity. There are some interesting conclusions to 
be drawn here by a comparison of this curve with that 
for precipitation. The latter showed deficiencies of 
suicides for rainy days, while this gives an excess for 
humid ones. Now, all rainy days are humid, but not all 
humid days are rainy, and our logical conclusion must be 
that the excesses shown by the present figure must have 
been for the humid variety, yet without precipitation. 
Such precisely is the "sticky" weather mentioned, and 



212 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



its eff ects must have been deadly to produce such results. 
In accounting for the unusual number of assaults and 
misdemeanors in the public schools for low humidities, 
as discussed in Chapter VII., the electrical potential of 
the atmosphere for such meteorological conditions was 



HUMIDITY 



— 1 

120 

T10 
Too 

~90 
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"To 

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Figure 41 

considered the cause. It is a fact conceded by scientists 
that at every point upon the earth's surface there are 
lines of electrical force extending off into space, and 
that the potential is roughly in a reverse ratio to the 
humidity prevailing at a given time. This electrical 



SUICIDE AND THE WEATHER 213 

condition for regions of universally low humidity, as the 
altitudes of our western plateaus, is very marked and 
productive of no slight effects. As is shown for the 
Denver curve, these seem to be a mental and even phys- 
ical exhilaration, productive of energy which in the long 
run generally proves to be in excess of the normal 
healthy possibilities. The result is for those regions a 
tendency to overwork, especially mentally, with a result- 
ing state of collapse. Although these conditions are 
not so marked for the greater humidities of the sea level, 
they nevertheless exist to a degree, and without doubt in 
New York City there is less individual surplus energy 
when the humidity is relatively high, than when rela- 
tively low. This would lead us to infer that from the 
showing of this condition, suicide was excessive when 
energy was low. This relation of occurrence to avail- 
able energy is reversed for certain of the figures, but 
other conditions enter in which are discussed in the con- 
clusion of this paper. 

Denver. For the Colorado climate the effects of 
humidity seem to be quite the reverse of those for New 
York City, as is shown by the dotted ordinates upon 
Figure 41. Here (/. £., for Colorado) we note that the 
excessive prevalence of self-destruction is for small 
humidities. The conditions are not, however, quite 
comparable with those of New York, for the degrees of 
atmospheric dryness for which such excesses prevail are 
never experienced in the latter city. Their unusual 
effects upon conduct have, however, been discussed in 
previous chapters. 

Wind. But little need be said upon the effect of this 
factor as shown by Figure 42. The regularity of the 



214 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



increase of suicide with increase in movement of the 
wind is too marked to allow any other theory than that 
of a causal nexus. This effect seems to be much greater 
upon the suicide than upon any other class of the offend- 















WIND 














, 100 


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N.Y. CITY DENVER 

Figure 42 

ers. Studied for New York City, and for the Colorado 
climates, the effects of great velocities of the wind is 
simply appalling, suicides being from two to four times 
the normal frequency during their prevalence. 

Character of the Day and Precipitation. Fig- 
ure 43 discloses some unexpected facts, namely : that the 
clear, dry days show the greatest number of suicides, 



SUICIDE AND THE WEATHER 



215 



CHAR. 


DF DAY 


PRECIPITATION 


-20 




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and the wet, partly cloudy days — the gloomiest of all 
weather — the least ; and with differences too great to be 
attributed to accident or chance ; in fact, for New York 
City thirty-one per cent, more on 
dry than on wet days, and 
twenty-one per cent, more on 
clear days than partly cloudy. 
As will be seen, on cloudy days 
the occurrence was about nor- 
mal. What does this mean? 
Must fiction resign her right to 
bring in gloomy weather and 
blinding storms as a partial ex- 
cuse for ending an existence 
made more unendurable by 
these? If such be the case, it is 
well that Dickens and Lytton 
and Poe are gone, for they would be robbed of a large 
number of their tragic climaxes. England has (as has 
been said, page 83) long been characterized as "gloomy 
Britain," and Montesquieu has called it the "classic land 
of suicide," stating that the "excessive number of sui- 
cides for that country is due to its gloomy weather." 
Statistics have shown, however, that the number is not 
excessive there, being less per million inhabitants than 
for any other important European nation. 

On this point, the quotation from Once a Week, 
printed on page 84, bears directly. 

Certainly a comparison of suicides for Denver and 
New York City supports his theory, for in the former 
city, where cloudy and partly cloudy days are less than 
one-third as frequent as in the latter, we find suicide 



N.Y. CITY DENVER 

Figure 43 



216 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

excessive during the gloomy weather. Yet the condi- 
tions there, both social and climatic, are so unusual as to 
give this fact little weight in a comprehensive study of 
suicides, and we must maintain that Vilemais's dictum 
that "nine-tenths of the suicides occur in rainy or cloudy 
weather," is wholly unfounded upon fact, at least for 
the conditions covered by this study. 

It is difficult to summarize the results of this chapter 
in such a manner as to be of much value or to bring 
forward theories which are certain of any long tenure 
of life. The whole method of the study is too new and 
untried, and the number of data inadequate. The bare 
facts revealed in the preceding paragraphs must prove 
of much more value than any hypothesis drawn from 
them at this stage of the investigation. Still, there are 
a few generalizations which seem worth noting, espe- 
cially as they are based in part upon findings which are 
entirely contradictory to popular opinion with regard to 
the time chosen by the suicide for the final act. 

The first is that suicide is excessive under those condi- 
tions of weather which are generally considered most 
exhilarating and delightful, that is, the later spring 
months and upon clear, dry days. Reference to Figs. 
1 and 2 proves this conclusively for the number of data 
and the locality studied. It was also noted that there 
were the greatest numerical excesses for the most agree- 
able temperatures. Barometrical conditions can hardly 
be referred to the categories agreeable and disagreeable, 
but for humidity and wind the relation will hardly hold, 
since we have the greatest excesses during high humidi- 
ties and great wind velocities, both of which are unpleas- 
ant. Yet these facts would not invalidate our first 



SUICIDE AND THE WEATHER 217 

statement, for neither high winds nor great humidities 
bring a scowl upon the face of Nature that can be com- 
pared with that of a wet, drizzling day. In fact, a day 
may be bright, and be both windy and humid. Yet these 
latter conditions have effects peculiarly their own, as 
shown conclusively by the study of deportment already 
cited. They are, for wind, the production of a neurotic 
condition in which self-control is in a marked degree 
lessened, and for high humidities, the production of a 
minimum of vital energy. The former is shown espe- 
cially in the study of the school children, and the latter 
of the death rate. These facts make it possible for us 
to amend our statement that suicides are excessive dur- 
ing the most noticeably delightful conditions, by add- 
ing : coupled with especially devitalizing ones. 

But this does not in any way account for the seem- 
ingly anomalous effect of bright weather. To me the 
only plausible hypothesis is that of contrast. Investi- 
gation has seemed to prove that very few suicides are 
committed on the "spur of the moment." The act is 
generally premeditated, and its consummation deferred, 
sometimes again and again. We can hardly doubt, 
either, that it is dreaded, and the hope entertained, even 
to the end, that it may not need to be. During the win- 
ter months that hope must be centered on the belief that 
when Nature smiles with the spring sunshine all will be 
well; on the gloomy day, when the morrow comes with 
its exhilarating brightness, the present cloud of unhap- 
piness will be gone. The love of life is still strong, and 
the grave can not be sought while there is still hope for 
better things. 

Spring comes with all its excess of life, and the morrow 



218 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

with its brightness, but do not bring to the poor unfor- 
tunate, unable to react to these forces as of yore, the 
hoped-for relief. He thinks of other springs when the 
blue-birds sang happier songs, and of other sunshine 
which had set his blood tingling. The drowning man 
had waited long for the straw; it came and he clutched 
it, but it sank beneath his weight. Dante felt the force 
of it when in his "Divine Comedy" he wrote, 

"No greater grief than to remember days 
Of joy, when misery is at hand," 

and Tennyson expressed the same thought in "Locksley 
Hall": 

"Comfort ? comfort scorned of devils ! this is truth the poet sings, 
That a sorrow's crown of sorrows is remembering happier things." 

Summary. Suicide is most prevalent in the late 
spring and the summer months ; is excessive at both ex- 
tremes of temperature, and somewhat above the normal 
for days of moderate heat ; is excessive in medium pres- 
sure of the air, and deficient for the extremes of pressure ; 
increases with regularity as humidity and wind increase 
from a deficiency for low readings of both; is excessive 
for clear, dry days. 



CHAPTER XII 



DRUNKENNESS AND THE WEATHER 

At first thought there would seem to be very little 
connection between the prevalence of intoxication, and 
the weather. Most of us can probably not recall a time 
when the latter has driven us to drink. Yet the influ- 
ence of different weather states upon conduct has been 
shown to be so great by other studies as to warrant some 
little expectation of positive results, even at the outset, of 
this. With a great many people the occasional debauch 
is not a matter of mere caprice. It is not even by them a 
thing to be desired. The pleasures connected with it in 
no way compensate for the attendant hardships and mis- 
eries, both of body and mind. They struggle against it 
with an intensity unknown to those whose bodies have 
not been weakened by indulgence, and when the fight is 
finally lost, it is because the allurements of the glass are 
stronger at the moment than at any previous time during 
the struggle, or the ability to withstand them less. The 
weather could not, with any degree of probability, influ- 
ence the former. It is not beyond the bounds of reason 
to suppose that it might the latter, through affecting the 
vitality of the body, together with its accompanying 
mental states, and it is for the purpose of throwing light 
upon this possibility, with its important bearing upon 

219 



220 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



the drink problem, that the present study was under- 
taken. 

The data were taken from the records of the New 
York City Police Board, and consist of the entire num- 
ber of males arrested for intoxication (44,495) for the 
years 1893-95 within the city (now the Borough of Man- 
hattan) . On each of the figures used in connection with 
this chapter, the distance from the bottom to the horizon- 
tal line represents the normal, the distance from this line 













MONTHLY 


DISTRIBUTION 










-30 






-20 

—10 










I 




—10 
—20 


•«•- 







y 










"' 







—30 




























JAN. 
FEB. 


oc « > z 5 (9 oT H > o 


2 < 2 ^ ^<WOZQ 



Figure 44 

to the top of each of the ordinates, the excess or defi- 
ciency, which may be read in percentages by means of 
the scale at the left. The first figure (Fig. 44) shows 
the prevalence of drunkenness for the months of the 
year. A mere glance at it shows the marked peculiarity 
to be a deficiency for the hot summer months, and a cor- 
responding excess for the colder ones of winter, there 
being 47 per cent, less for July than for December, with 
a somewhat gradual change from one to the other. 



DRUNKENNESS AND THE WEATHER 221 

These differences are too great to be ascribed to mere 
accident, though exactly what their causes may be is 
somewhat uncertain; in fact, an analysis of the condi- 
tions indicates the possibility of at least three. The first 
is the effect which certain holidays might have upon the 
occurrence of drunkenness. Undoubtedly some days of 
the year are made the occasion of a drunken debauch by 
persons so inclined, and Christmas is one of them. This 
would tend to increase the number of arrests for Decem- 
ber. But the Fourth of July is perhaps just as much 
of a favorite for such diversion, a fact which would swell 
the numbers for July. This month, however, fails to 
show any such effect. In fact, a careful inspection of 
the daily record of arrests for drunkenness, although 
showing a slight increase for the festivals mentioned, 
proves it to be too small to account for the monthly 
showing. The excesses for the cold months are due to 
a large daily occurrence, pretty evenly distributed, and 
the deficiencies for the warm ones to the reverse condi- 
tions. Although November shows a considerable excess, 
I could not tell with certainty by an inspection of the 
records exactly which was election day, so slight was the 
increase in the number of arrests for it. It is true that 
the record for October may be influenced by the fact 
that the political campaign is at its height, but how much 
we cannot tell. 

Another social condition which may affect the results 
is the exit from the city for the summer, of many who 
are brought with some regularity during the other 
months, before the bar of the police court. Undoubt- 
edly Coney Island — which was not within the city limits 
when the data for this study were taken — and many of 



222 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

the other shore resorts, form something of a safety-valve 
for the New York police during their season, but my 
study of assault and battery would lead me to believe that 
the influence of this exodus cannot be great. It would 
be reasonable to infer that arrests for the latter crime 
and for drunkenness would be made, for the most part, 
from the same social stratum, and that social conditions 
which would affect the prevalence of one of those crimes 
would have the same influence upon the other. A 
moment's thought will be sufficient to show that the 
summer exit of the frequenters of the up-town clubs 
would not affect the police courts in the least, for they 
never come before its bar, no matter how often they are 
carried home unconscious in a cab. We are dealing 
only with those who get publicly drunk, and those are 
they who occasionally vary the monotony of a plain 
drunk with a fight. We could, then, with reason, infer 
that if the public drunkards were gone in any consider- 
able numbers, the public brawlers would be also. Yet 
this is preceisely the reverse of what our study of assault 
has shown. Upon Figure 44, I have shown by means 
of a curve in dotted lines, the occurrence of arrests for 
this crime for the same years. It shows as marked ex- 
cesses for the warm months as we have deficiencies for 
drunkenness during that season, a fact which would 
lessen the validity of, if it did not entirely negative the 
weight of any migration theory which might be brought 
to bear upon the problem under discussion. 

The third hypothesis which might be promulgated is 
that of the direct influence of the peculiar meteorological 
conditions, and it seems to be the most plausible. Since, 
however, the remainder of this chapter is made up of a 



DRUNKENNESS AND THE WEATHER 



223 



discussion of these conditions, I will simply state here 
that the prevailing ones for the summer months for New 
York City are high temperatures, barometer and humid- 
ity slightly below normal, light winds and generally fair 
weather. 

Temperature. Figure 45 shows in a very marked 
manner the seeming effect of differing conditions of 
temperature, upon drunkenness. In explanation of it, 
I would say that the exact relation between expectancy 
and occurrence was worked out for each of the tempera- 



TEMPERATURE 



-30 
—20 
—10 




















—10 
—20 
—30 
































10° 15° 20° 25° 30° 35° 40° 45° 50° 55° 60° 65 0- 70° 75° 80° 
15° 20° 25° 30° 35° 40° 45° 50° 55° 60 65° 70 75° 80° 85° 



Figure 45 

ture groups indicated at the bottom, and this relation 
shown for each group by the height of the ordinate 
above. Low temperatures made business for the police 
courts, and high ones lessened its labors. Of course, if 
our conclusions in the preceding paragraph on occur- 
rence were erroneous and the deficiency in drunkenness 
for the summer months was due to social, rather than to 
meteorological influences, conclusions drawn from this 
figure would also be false. In that case, deficiencies for 
high temperatures shown here would be but concomitant 
variations. The summer is hot. If there be but few 



224 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

arrests for drunkenness during the summer, there can be 
but few for high temperatures. On the other hand, if 
high temperatures so affect the individual that less stim- 
ulant is desired than during those which are lower, we 
have here the cause of the peculiarities shown in Figure 
44. There are some reasons for believing that this is 
the case. In the first place, the other studies of weather 
effects have seemed to show that during moderately high 
temperatures the vitality of the body is relatively exces- 
sive, while for low temperatures it is deficient. These 
facts in themselves would affect the demand for stimu- 
lant. A "bracer" is taken when needed, and for many 
a "bracer" means a "drunk." We may, I believe, with 
justice, conclude that many of the habitues of the police 
court as prisoners, struggle against their tendencies to 
drink, knowing the consequences. When vitality is ex- 
cessive, they do so with success; for days and, perhaps, 
for weeks they are winners, but finally the time comes 
when the fight is too severe, and they succumb. That 
was on the day when the vitality was at its lowest ebb, 
and the cold contributed to that condition. A few 
glasses of whiskey would remedy all that, and it did so. 
What cared the poor fellow what arctic explorers have 
said about the effect of alcohol upon the system in the 
long run? He was cold; he was weak. The stimulant 
would give him immediate, though temporary, relief. 
He took it, and our figure shows the result. 

Perhaps another influence of different temperatures 
shown by our figure is through the kind of alcoholic 
beverage used. In hot weather a man drinks beer; in 
cold, whiskey. During the former conditions of tem- 
perature, the body demands large quantities of liquid, 



DRUNKENNESS AND THE WEATHER 



225 



which, through the excretions of the skin and attendant 
evaporation, may reduce the body temperature. Beer 
meets this requirement, and at the same time furnishes 
alcoholic stimulant, yet in quantities so small as to intox- 
icate only when taken immoderately. Yet, if our theory 
is correct, the condition of vitality is such that even this 
small amount more nearly meets the demands of the 
body than during the cold season, and consequent drunk- 
enness is less frequent. 

Barometer. The facts shown by Figure 46 are not 



BAROMETER 



-30 
—20 
-10 












-10 
-20 
-30 


























2Q 30 2Q 40 y q 50 2g 60 2Q 70 „ 8029.90 Q 00 1 Q 20 3Q 30 40 
Z9 40 29 50 29 60 ^ 9 70 ^ 9 80 ^ 9 90 30.00 3O 10 3O 20 3O 30 3O 40 3O 50 



Figure 46 

so conclusive as the preceding. In it we have the prev- 
alence of drunkenness for different conditions of the 
barometer. To generalize from it we may say that the 
excesses were for high readings of that instrument. It 
is not easy, with our present knowledge, to account for 
this. Both high and low conditions of the barometer 
are distributed pretty evenly throughout the year, so we 
cannot attribute it to any effect of the season. It is 
possible that it may be due to the effect of storms upon 

16 



226 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

the vitality of the body, and the consequent demand for 
stimulant. The barometer is not normally high dur- 
ing periods of bad weather, but usually follows them 
pretty closely with a rise, and it may be that although the 
"bracer" has been struggled against during the preva- 
lence of a storm, at its close bodily conditions are such 
that the fight is given up, and a debauch follows. It is 
certain that the actual weight of the atmosphere, as indi- 
cated by the barometer, is not the influencing factor. 
The entire variation in the height of the mercury column 
for New York City is but little more than one inch, while 
in going to an altitude like that of Denver. Colo., a 
change of more than five times that amount is experi- 
enced without any noticeable influence upon conduct. 
The showing for this figure must, we think, be due to 
other weather conditions which vary with the barometer, 
yet what they are cannot be said with certainty. We 
may add that the seeming effect of different baromet- 
rical conditions upon the tendency to drink, is exactly 
the opposite of that upon the occurrence of misdemean- 
ors in the public schools and penitentiary, of arrests for 
assault and battery and of suicide. 

Humidity. The fluctuations in the height of the 
ordinates upon Figure 47, which shows the relation be- 
tween drunkenness and varying conditions of humidity, 
is very great ; so much so as to make the curve a hard one 
to interpret. We have there shown, not only excesses 
in the number of arrests during high humidities (i. e., 
during much moisture) , but also during those which are 
lower than the normal. Yet in spite of its circumflex- 
ion, the general showing of the curve is an increase of 
drunkenness with an increase of humidity. This might 



DRUNKENNESS AND THE WEATHER 



227 



with reason be expected. First, the seeming tempera- 
ture of a cold day in winter is much lower when the 
humidity is great than when it is small, necessitating, 
perhaps, more stimulant to keep up the proper vitality 
under the former conditions than under the latter. Sec- 
ond, on a day on which the humidity is great in summer, 
evaporation from the surface of the body is less rapid, 
and, as a consequence, beer, the ordinary summer bev- 
erage, loses to an extent its cooling properties. A logical 



HUMIDITY 




Figure 47 

inference would be that less would be drunk with the 
consequent effect upon the prevalence of drunkenness. 

Beside these hypotheses based upon the relation be- 
tween humidity and temperature, is one having to do 
more directly with that between the former conditions 
and the vitality of the body. The studies of weather- 
effects already presented have seemed to show beyond a 
doubt that vitality is greatest during weather states of 
small humidity. At such times, the death-rate is lower, 
and disorder of an active nature more prevalent. My 



228 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



studies have shown that then, the electrical potential of 
the atmosphere is higher — itself a stimulant without 
being an intoxicant — with the natural effect that less 
alcohol is needed, with the danger of the police court 
consequently lessened. 

Wind. Figure 48, with its row of ordinates regu- 
larly increasing in height, argues strongly that high 
winds are among the saloon keeper's best friends. The 
numbers beneath the individual ordinates show the total 
number of miles the wind blew for the days which, 
grouped, give the results shown graphically above. 



WIND 



-30 
-20 

-10 


















-10 
-20 
-30 


























50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 _ 
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 



Figrure 48 

From a deficiency of 20 per cent, for conditions of 
virtual calm, to an excess of 50 per cent, for wind, the 
velocity of a hurricane, the increase is very regular. In 
referring conditions of the wind to those of temperature, 
the same can be said in part for high winds that was for 
great humidities, namely, that they intensify the effects 
of cold. The effect of great heat is, however, usually 



DRUNKENNESS AND THE WEATHER 



229 



modified by a movement of air, although evaporation 
from the surface of the body is augmented, and the de- 
mand for liquid refreshments increased. This latter 
fact would swell the consumption of beer at such times. 
Our figure seems to show that such is the case. 

Upon Figure 49 are shown the relative number of 
arrests for drunkenness upon days characterized by the 
United States Weather Bureau as "clear," "partly 
cloudy" and "cloudy." As so characterized, clear days 



CHARACTER OF DAY AND PRECIPITATION 



—30 
—20 
—10 




—10 
—20 
—30 








CLEAR 

PART 
CLOUDY 

CLOUDY 




Figure 49 



are those upon which the sun is obscured for three-tenths 
or less of the time from sunrise to sunset. As partly 
cloudy when from four-tenths to seven-tenths (inclu- 
sive) of that time is obscured, and as cloudy when more 
than that amount. Under precipitation, I have con- 



230 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

trasted those days upon which there was rain or snow- 
fall in excess of .01 inches with those on which there was 
none, without taking into consideration the amount. 

Considering the influence of some of the other meteor- 
ological conditions, as temperature and wind, the effect 
of these most noticeable differences in weather seems 
very slight. In fact, so slight are they as to come within 
the computed "probable error," and perhaps can be taken 
only as negative results. Such as they are, too, they are 
contrary to what we should expect from a study of the 
other conditions and to our line of reasoning. The other 
conditions show excesses of drunkenness for debilitating 
weather states, and deficiencies for those which are ex- 
hilarating. Here we have the reverse, for clear and dry 
days which are bracing give us excesses, though very 
slight ones, while partly cloudy and wet days show 
deficiencies. Cloudy days furnish exactly the normal 
number. 

It is hardly worth while, however, to attempt to ac- 
count for these anomalies since they are so small as to 
come within the probable error, and may or may not 
mean anything at all. 

In conclusion, I would say that I recognize the lim- 
itations of this method of study. By its very nature 
each meteorological condition is treated as if the others 
were not at the same time potent. This fact would 
introduce no error unless two or more tended to vary 
simultaneously. In that case the effects of one might 
be imputed to another. If all tended to vary without 
fixed relation to one another the showing for each would 
be valid, and a careful study of weather fluctuations 
seems to show that this is largely the case. We recog- 



DRUNKENNESS AND THE WEATHER 231 

nize, too, that a study of drunkenness does not have quite 
the bearing upon the question that one based upon the 
consumption of stimulants, as influenced by weather 
conditions, would have. We have argued that the latter 
affect to a recognizable degree the vitality of the body, 
and that deficiencies are compensated for by the use of 
alcohol in some of its forms. But in studying drunken- 
ness we are missing entirely all those whose "bracers" did 
not lead on to a debauch. Where the feeling of depleted 
vitality led one man to the police court it probably led a 
hundred others to the sideboard or to the saloon for a 
drink, but of these we know nothing. It may be pos- 
sible at some future time to base a study similar to this 
upon the daily output of some large city saloons, with 
striking results. 

Certain it is that the great drink problem cannot be 
solved without having more scientific light thrown upon 
the psycho-physiology of the mass. As long as people 
demand stimulant it will be obtainable. Lessen the 
demand, and the attendant suffering will keep pace with 
its decrease. We cannot hope to alter prevailing me- 
teorological conditions, were we convinced of their direct 
bearing upon the problem, but we can lessen their influ- 
ence by shielding the unfortunate from their rigors, and 
by increasing in every possible way the normal vitality 
of the class which most needs it. 

Who can say how largely the drink problem is one of 
better heated tenements, of warmer overcoats and of 
more nourishing food! 

Summary. Arrests for drunkenness are far more 
prevalent during the colder months of the year than 
during the warmer; vary inversely as the temperature, 



232 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

being excessive for low and deficient for high readings 
of the thermometer ; are but slightly affected by varying 
atmospheric pressure, though are somewhat above the 
normal for conditions of high barometer; increase as 
both the humidity and the wind increase; show slight 
influences from days of different character, though are 
somewhat excessive for clear, dry days. 



CHAPTER XIII 



ATTENTION AND THE WEATHER 

This chapter comprises a study of intellectual pro- 
cesses, in their relation to meteorological fluctuations. 
I had hoped to make it more comprehensive by includ- 
ing within it the consideration of daily marks of 
pupils in the public or other schools ; but all attempts to 
secure records of such marks have proved futile and I 
am forced to content myself with those considered, which 
are of a quite different character, though just as truly 
having to do with intellectual processes. Since it seems 
probable to me that a fluctuation in attention is the deter- 
mining factor in the operations considered, I have given 
the chapter the above title. 

A. CLERICAL ERRORS. This class of data 
was studied as a partial substitute for one of daily marks 
in the Public Schools, when it became certain that the lat- 
ter were not procurable. It seemed particularly desir- 
able to have as full studies as possible of the effects of 
meteorological conditions upon those mental states which 
are productive of intellectual results, as well as those af- 
fecting conduct, but they are necessarily limited to these 
data and those of the class following. They comprise 
3,697 clerical errors in calculation, made during the 

233 



234 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

calendar years 1896 and 1897 by about 140 clerks 
in several of the larger New York City banks, lo- 
cated between Park Row and Wall Street. The 
errors were all of such a nature as to bring about a 
difference between the record of the depositor and that 
of the bank, and were in no case corrected until some sub- 
sequent time. It was the record of such corrections, 
together with the date of the error, that was kindly put 
in my hands as the basis of study. Without doubt, very 
many more errors are made daily by the clerks in making 
up their "Cash," but as they are corrected before the day's 
work is considered done, and no record is kept of such, 
they were not available. 

Occurrence. This curve (Fig. 19) shows the same 
general tendency to rise during the summer months that 
is shown for most of the other classes, with the differ- 
ence in other respects, of a marked deficiency for April 
and May and an unusual excess for October, November 
and December. The curve resembles more nearly that 
for death than any other occurrence curve, which might 
mean, if this resemblance were more than accidental, that 
the number of errors forms an inverse ratio to the vital 
energy at command. In the summer months, when the 
latter is undoubtedly depleted by the excessive heat, the 
number comes up. In the spring, when, judging from 
the deficiency of deaths, vitality is strong, the number 
goes down. The excess in March is certainly not due 
to the high winds of that month, for reference to the 
"Wind" chart shows us a deficiency of errors for such 
conditions. It may possibly be due to a depletion of 
energy due to the physical difficulties attendant upon 
getting about in this month, uncomfortable both under- 



ATTENTION AND THE WEATHER 235 

foot and overhead. The deficiency for September is, 
I believe, due to the general condition of vigor which 
comes with cessation of heat and the bracing coolness of 
the autumn. The excess of the next three months is 
hard to account for upon meteorological grounds. I am 
inclined to think it due to other conditions powerful 
enough to overcome any tendency of the weather which, 
theoretically, would be to place it below expectancy. 
These conditions are business and social and are suggest- 
ed by the following peculiarity of distribution of errors 
for the days of the week. A tabulation for this condition 
showed little of interest except that there was an excess 
of errors for Mondays, of 24 per cent. This fact imme- 
diately suggested late Sunday evening calls and other 
festivities of the day, with their tendencies to divert the 
mind from business channels; but in talks with the 
officials of the banks studied, increase of business for 
that day was mentioned as a possible factor in producing 
the result. It was explained that a two days' mail was 
received from all outside towns, necessitating much extra 
work on the part of the clerks, and consequently, hurry 
and increased liability to error. The possible validity of 
my suggestion was also acknowledged. To apply these 
facts to the problem of monthly distribution: both an 
increase in business and in social requirements come with 
the late autumn and early winter months. Thanksgiv- 
ing and Christmas, with their tendencies to distract, are 
included in them; and it does not seem unreasonable to 
believe that with them, came enough Monday effects to 
throw the curve where we find it, above the normal. 

Temperature. The general tendency of this curve 
(Fig. 20) is the same as those of all other classes of data 



236 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

with the exception of Deportment in the Public Schools : 
that is, a gradual increase, until the temperature group 
75 to 80 degrees is reached when the increase is very 
rapid, running up to an excess of 66 per cent, for the 
group 85 to 90 degrees. These conditions resemble so 
closely other curves which have been fully discussed as to 
make it unnecessary to comment upon them here. 

Barometer. This curve (Fig. 21) differs essentially 
from all the others for this meteorological condition, in 
that it shows a deficiency of data for low barometric 
readings and an excess for high ones. This, coupled 
with the fact that it is the only curve dealing with the 
intellectual, rather than emotional states, makes a pecul- 
iarly interesting one. It is also, in some ways a contra- 
diction of the results obtained from the experiment in 
discrimination, since there we find high barometrical con- 
ditions accompanying quick discrimination. It is, of 
course, possible, though the data are not at hand to dem- 
onstrate it, that the excessive quickness is accompanied 
by a correspondingly large number of errors. Certainly 
it would seem from an inspection of the curves for the 
other classes of data, that low readings are attended by 
emotional states of a negative tone, as shown by the va- 
rious deportmental excesses. This general tendency to 
feel out of sorts may be recognized by the bank clerks as 
one necessitating extra care in the prevention of inexact- 
ness in computation : as days on which the work has to be 
gone over twice in order to make certain of it, and so, 
errors corrected on the spot. On the other hand, the 
other barometrical extreme seems to exist on those days 
on which we feel perfect masters of ourselves — when we 
are certain that whatever we do must be right, a fact 



ATTENTION AND THE WEATHER 237 

which would tend to leave uncorrected whatever inaccu- 
racies had been made. If this hypothesis be true, it ac- 
counts for the peculiarities of this curve. It must be 
remembered, however, that conditions of low barometer 
accompany storms, and since, as will be shown under the 
proper head, the errors tend to increase upon cloudy 
days and upon those on which there is precipitation, the 
fact may be due to the latter condition, though showing 
upon this curve because of the coincidence of the states 
considered. 

Humidity. This curve (Fig. 22) also shows essen- 
tial differences from all the other curves for this condi- 
tion. In them, a general excess of data is indicated for 
lower humidities and a deficiency for higher ones. With 
this class, however, except for the very low, we have 
the relation reversed and have the excess for high read- 
ings. Here again the analogy to the death curve, 
referred to in the discussion of Occurrence, seems to be 
noticeable on careful analysis, and might again suggest 
the relation between excessive mental inexactness and 
depleted vital forces. 

There is little question that a general study of climate 
has demonstrated the latter conditions to be prevalent 
where humidities are high, especially when accompanied 
by heat as a prevailing condition. 

A person transplanted from a temperate climate, espe- 
cially if it be a dry one, to a humid tropical region shows 
permanently the mental characteristics we have discov- 
ered here as a concomitant to such conditions temporarily 
prevailing in the weather. The depleted vitality shows 
itself as much in an inability to do intensive mental work 
as in an inability to withstand the ravages of disease, and 



238 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

would give curves based upon the two classes of data, the 
resemblance which we find between them in this study. 

Wind. This curve ( Fig. 23 ) shows in fully as marked 
a manner as do any for this condition, the gradual de- 
crease of the occurrences considered as the wind increases 
in violence. We can hardly believe that so regular and 
marked a tendency as is shown by this curve is due to 
accident. 

It seems to me probable that it is an evidence of the 
necessity of ventilation on a large scale, such as is caused 
in our large cities through great movements of the wind. 
Such movements bring fresh air from the surrounding 
country to take the place of that which has been de- 
oxygenated through combustion of all sorts, and the 
effects which we have shown are just what might be 
expected, for that oxygen is necessary to mental alert- 
ness no one can doubt. 

Character of the Day. Here we have a condition 
diametrically opposed to that of any other class of data 
(Fig. 24) : that is, an excess of occurrences for fair days 
and a deficiency for cloudy ones. 

Since this is the only class of data in which light as 
affecting the ability to see might influence the result, this 
fact may be attributed in part at least to a lack of proper 
illumination. I am inclined to think, however, that this 
is not so important as it might seem, because of the fact 
that many of the rooms in which the clerical work of the 
large banks is done depend very little upon the sun as a 
source of light. They are, for the most part, so situated 
as to necessitate the universal use of artificial light. The 
relation of errors to the character of the day is, however, 
the one which we should most naturally expect. Replies 



ATTENTION AND THE WEATHER 239 

to the questionaire sent out were unanimous in declaring 
the belief that mental work was at its best on "fair" ones, 
the results shown by the curves. Undoubtedly the mind 
works better under the inspiration of a sunny sky, and 
unless corrected in the manner suggested in the discus- 
sion of Barometer, for this class of data we should expect 
the results here shown. I have heard, though I have 
been unable to verify the statement, that the depressing 
effects of a severe London fog are such that in the Bank 
of England, certain sets of books, an error in which 
would prove cumulative and disastrous in its results, are 
locked up, and the clerks put at work less important dur- 
ing such weather. It is the observation also of the 
officers of the banks studied that errors increase with un- 
pleasant weather. This fact may be shown in the Occur- 
rence curve for March. The analogy which has been 
noted between the curve for errors and that for death 
fails to show itself here and a reference of the former to 
any indicated condition of vitality seems impossible. 

Precipitation. This curve corresponds with that j ust 
discussed, in that it indicates an excess of the data stud- 
ied for stormy days. Whatever was said under the pre- 
ceding head applies, so far as we know, equally to this, 
and we shall give it no further discussion. 

B. EXPERIMENT IN DISCRIMINATION. 
The data made use of in this study were kindly furnished 
by a graduate student in the psychological laboratory of 
Columbia University. One phase of the problem which 
he was carrying on was an attempt to discover some law 
as to the rapidity of formation of muscular habit as well' 
as the rhythm, daily or other, in discrimination time. He 
made use of blanks, upon which were printed 500 capital 



240 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



1 1= CLEAR — 
OCTOBER 



EXPERIMENT IN DISCR 

> PT.'.'CL' DX > += CLOIjdV 

fooVEM"! 



I.MINAT1CN 

X= fco.G "a^RAfN 



15 161718 L9 20 21 22 24^5 26 27 28 "9 



2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 1114 15 16 171-8 19 20 212223 24 25 26 23 29 30 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 



X--+I-+ + -- + 



Xjiiii- i±±±±.=_ I I+++I 1 + 



60 

50° 

40° 

30° 

SO. 60 

60.20 

2.9.. 30 

2.9.40 



SEC. 
80 



70 
60 
50 
40 
100 
80 
60 
,40 



MILES 
80 



^ 



m 



r 



vv 



A 



■^-y 



s^i 



a 



H 



A 



D 



M 



^ 



^ 



J 



V 



U 



r y 



^ 



My 



■v* 



A \ 



*\ 



~A 



V 



h 



tj 



■\ 



tf 



tf 



^ 



r 



^ 



7 



* 



tj 



^ 



i 



tb 



^ 



fl\ 



^ 



/ 



^ 



Figure 50 



ATTENTION AND THE WEATHER 241 

letters including all those of the alphabet, but among 
which were 100 A's. His experiment was to cancel with 
a pencil each of the 100 A's in the least possible time. 
He did this at several stated times daily for a period of 
50 days, carefully noting the time, in seconds and frac- 
tions of a second, of each experiment. Although a study 
of the weather conditions which might possibly affect the 
rapidity of his work was in no way included in his prob- 
lem, a regularity of life strictly observed during the 
period of experimentation tended to eliminate time fluc- 
tuations due to accidental causes from his results to such 
an extent as to make it seem probable that even the lim- 
ited number of data might be of value from this point of 
view. 

In the tabulation of his results I have used but one of 
his daily experiments — the first one in the morning, which 
was, in every case, between 9 and 10 A. m. The time 
taken for the experiment for each of the fifty days is 
shown by the curve marked Discrimination, on Figure 
50. The decrease in time as the experiments went on is 
of no importance in our problem : only the fluctuations 
in time as shown by the ups and downs of the curve being 
of value. 

The meteorological conditions as shown by the other 
curves are not, as in other classes of data studied, the 
means for the days, but in every case the readings for 
the 8 a. m. observation. For Wind, the maximum veloc- 
ity registered since the last observation preceding that of 
8 a. m. was used. 

Temperature. The general lowering of this curve, 
indicating a decrease in temperature during the period 
of the experiments, makes the curve resemble, in its gen- 

17 



242 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

eral direction that of discrimination, but this similarity is 
purely one of accident due to the time of year, and prob- 
ably indicates no causal relation between the two. 

The discrimination curve would undoubtedly have 
descended, even if the experiments had been carried on 
in the spring. A comparison of maximum and minimum 
times , as shown by the fluctuations of the Discrimination 
curve, with those of temperature seems to show very 
little constant relation between the two, although with 
the exception of the days October 14, 22, and 26, Novem- 
ber 3 and 5, and December 3 and 5, it would seem as if 
an increase in temperature was accompanied by a de- 
crease in the time of the experiment. For November 
31, December 3, 9, 10, 11, 18, 20, and 23, and December 
5 the temperature is shown to be above the average for 
that stage of the experiments, while discrimination time 
is below, and for November 24, 27, and 28, December 1, 
4, 7, 8, 14, 15, 16, and 26, and December 2 and 9 the re- 
verse relation of the curves obtains. We recognize fully 
that in this experiment we have too few data to draw any 
valid conclusions and shall simply present the facts as 
the curves indicate them, without extended remarks. 

Barometer. Inspection would seem to indicate the 
same general relations between this curve and that of 
Discrimination as was shown by temperature: that is, 
high barometer, small discrimination time and the re- 
verse. Although there are some exceptions to this, the 
relation quite generally exists. The curves show that on 
October 20, 24, and 25, November 3, 9, 10, and 25, and 
December 8 and 9 the barometer was above its average, 
while the time of discrimination was below, and on Octo- 
ber 22, 25, and 26 and November 7? 14, and 24 the reverse 



ATTENTION AND THE WEATHER 243 

was true. A comparison of the general coincidence with 
the opposition of these curves shows fifteen days on 
which the condition of affairs above stated plainly exists ; 
to five when the opposite was shown. „ 

Reference to other figures which show the curves for 
various classes of data under varying barometrical con- 
ditions indicate that for high readings there is a general 
deficiency of data of all kinds except errors in banks. 
Since, however, this is the only class resembling closely 
the one under consideration, in that it has to do with 
mental clearness, a comparison may be at least suggest- 
ive. If accidents have not affected our conclusions, we 
have demonstrated, for higher barometrical conditions, 
both an excess of errors in banks, and a minimum of time 
required to perform the problem in discrimination. These 
two facts would, however, seem to be contradictory. 

Humidity. This curve taken by itself shows practi- 
cally nothing. Of the marked fluctuations of the 
discrimination curve, all are accompanied by a similar 
fluctuation in that of Humidity and 13 by an opposing 
one. Probably this indicates no appreciable causal rela- 
tion and will be only incidentally mentioned in discuss- 
ing the aggregate conditions for the day. 

Wind. This curve is about as barren of results as the 
preceding. It shows all fluctuations opposing those of 
discrimination to 8 resembling it in a general way. 
This difference, however, seems insufficient to warrant 
any generalization. 

Character of the Day. The conditions indicated 
at the top of the chart for each day is that of the 8 a. m. 
observation. We have 15 fair, 9 part cloudy, 16 cloudy, 
5 foggy, 5 rainy, or 3 per cent, fair, 18 per cent, part 



244 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



cloudy, 32 per cent, cloudy, 10 per cent, foggy, 10 per 
cent, rainy. 

An inspection of the Discrimination curves shows 14 
days (October 15, 20, 25, and 31, November 2, 3, 9, 10, 
11, 19, 23, and 25, and December 1 and 5) upon which 
there was a marked lessening of time compared with the 
previous day, or the average for the period immediately 
preceding, and 11 days (October 18, 22, and 26, Novem- 
ber 1, 4, 5, 15, 16, and 24, and December 2, 3, and 6) 
when there is shown a noticeably increased time required 
to perform the experiment. But of the "quick" days, 
4 (29%) were fair, 2 (14%) part cloudy, 5 (36%) 
cloudy, 1 (7%) foggy, and 3 (21%) rainy, and of the 
"slow" days 2 (18%) were fair, 2 (18%) part cloudy, 5 
(45%) cloudy, 2 (18%) foggy, and 1 (9%) rainy. 

These numbers, reduced to percentages of the whole 
number of each class considered, and these referred to 
the percentages of normal occurrence given above con- 
sidered as Expectancy, after the manner of the other 

charts of this problem, give the 
following : 

At first sight, the curves seem 
contradictory ; but we must have 
in mind that but one-half of the 
fifty days through which the ex- 
periments were continued are rep- 
resented, the other half not hav- 
ing shown any abnormality by 
the discrimination curve. 

Of "quick" days we find a de- 
ficiency (i. e. , less than are 6 ' Ex- 
pected") for fair, partly cloudy 





FAIR 


=T.C.L..CLJD-Y 


FOG 


RAIN 


U(J 












20 


















A 




■2X) 






if 


V 




2U 

20 




/ 


/ 
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ATTENTION AND THE WEATHER 245 

and foggy days, and an excess for cloudy and rainy 
days (for the latter, of 110 per cent.) . Of "slow" days, 
we find a deficiency for fair and rainy days, the expected 
number for partly cloudy and an excess for cloudy and 
f °ggy ones, the maximum being for the foggy. 

For those conditions for which both curves show a de- 
ficiency (fair and partly cloudy) we must conclude the 
days were among those which were not considered. 

An attempt to isolate those days upon which many of 
the meteorological conditions were unusual and to study 
the combined effects, is of interest. October 22 was of 
such a character; wind, humidity and temperature 
were unusually high and barometer correspondingly low. 
Its effect seemed to be an increase in time of discrimina- 
tion. On the 26th we have a similar day with similar 
result. On November 19, a day somewhat similar except 
for a deficiency in wind, shows an opposite effect upon 
the mental activity. December 5, a day showing a veloc- 
ity of wind approximating a hurricane, an excessive 
humidity and temperature and the lowest barometer of 
the period studied, in fact, a most abnormal day, shows a 
very quick discriminative test. 

Summary. Clerical errors were to be found gener- 
ally excessive during the warmer, and deficient during 
the colder months, with some exceptions noted; but 
slightly affected by changes in temperature except for 
a marked increase in number for great heat; of less 
than normal prevalence for low, and more for moderate 
readings of the barometer ; generally deficient for slight 
humidities, and excessive for great. They decrease 
slightly as the wind increases; and are excessive for 
cloudy, wet days. 



246 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

Discrimination was quicker when the temperature was 
relatively high; was quick when atmospheric pressure 
was relatively great ; was little influenced by humidity or 
wind; was quick upon cloudy, wet days. 



CHAPTER XIV 

A SUMMARY OF WEATHER EFFECTS 

I shall present no new facts in this chapter, but shall 
through a summarization of the effects of each meteor- 
ological condition upon all the classes of data studied, 
attempt to make somewhat plainer their peculiar effects. 
The preceding chapters have been essentially topical, 
each treating of some particular phase of human con- 
duct or activity, and each stating somewhat fully the 
seeming effect of different weather states upon that 
particular phase. These effects, however, differ mate- 
rially for the various classes of data, though even a most 
careful study would probably fail to impress those dif- 
ferences upon the memory, unless they were more log- 
ically and concisely stated than was possible in a topical 
discussion. The differences in influence make it im- 
possible to answer with exactness the question which I 
have been asked over and over again as to what the 
effects of any particular meteorological condition are 
upon people as a class, though by recourse to a simple 
classification it may be answered approximately. 

Occurrence. Generally speaking the colder months 
are periods of quiescence for the activities studied. 
With the exception of sickness, death, and drunkenness, 
the year begins in every case with deficiencies in occur- 

247 



248 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

rence. For these three, excesses are shown. As the 
months progress, a somewhat rapid increase in preva- 
lence is shown for the entire group which began below 
the normal, usually culminating in the hottest period of 
the year, and gradually falling to its close. Exceptions 
to this may be noted within the group ; suicide, insanity 
and misconduct in the penitentiary reaching the maxi- 
mum in the late spring or early summer, and declining 
somewhat during the heated period. 

The greatest excess for the hot months is shown for 
arrests for assault and battery, which, in the case of 
males, varies almost exactly with the mean temperature 
of the months. With the school children, for the first 
and last month of the school year, which are the hottest, 
the best of conduct is indicated, though reasons quite 
other than those of the weather are probably the cause 
(see page 113). 

With the other classes of data which showed excesses 
for January, — sickness, death, and drunkenness, — the 
annual distribution is quite the reverse of what it is for 
that just considered. Sickness and drunkenness pre- 
sent almost as perfect and regular a decrease for the 
summer months as those did an increase. It is, too, 
rather interesting and suggestive that these go together. 
With the death rate, there is shown a decrease for the 
early summer and the fall months, with a very marked 
increase for the period of greatest heat. So far, then, 
as the effects of different seasons is concerned, we have 
two groups of data ; one, comprising sickness, death, and 
drunkenness, which is generally excessive during the 
colder months; a second, comprising all the rest, which 
is deficient in occurrence at that time of year. 



A SUMMARY OF WEATHER EFFECTS 249 

Temperature. An inspection of the figures showing 
the effects of heat and cold upon the various activities 
discussed in the previous chapters seems to point to a 
somewhat similar grouping to that made in the last dis- 
cussion. For three classes of data are excesses shown 
upon the lower end of the temperature scale; drunken- 
ness, which is unquestionable; sickness, which is even 
more pronounced; and suicide, though the number of 
data for the 0-5 degrees temperature group was so small 
as to give the reading for that group but little weight. 
Still, it seems natural that self-destruction of the so- 
called "rational" type should be prevalent under condi- 
tions of intense cold. Arrests for insanity are also 
shown to be excessive for the lowest group! but I attach 
no weight to that fact, the general upward trend of the 
curve leading me to believe that the fluctuation is acci- 
dental to the problem, especially since a still lower tem- 
perature group than that shown (not plotted because of 
the fewness of data upon which it is was based) showed 
deficiencies. Errors in banks are also slightly above 
the normal for the most intense cold, and the deportment 
in the penitentiary is so, near the lower end of the 
curve, though not at its beginning. The death rate for 
the two lowest groups is neither plus nor minus, though 
drawn as if slightly minus. For all the other classes of 
data, occurrence is plainly below the normal for the lower 
temperatures, either gradually increasing with the tem- 
perature (assault), or seemingly unaffected by it for a 
considerable space (insane), then showing a very rapid 
increase beginning at from 70 to 80 degrees, which is 
again followed in the case of assault by a drop for the 
very highest temperatures. With the deportment in 



250 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

the public schools this drop comes at a lower temperature, 
but is fully discussed upon page 116. The relation be- 
tween the curves for the different sexes, where they were 
studied separately (as in the case of assault and insane) 
leads to the conclusion that the effect of heat upon 
females is greater than upon males. This is shown both in 
an increased pugnacity and in a greater mental unbalanc- 
ing. Especially is this noticeable for assault. Starting 
at the lower temperatures with a deficiency much greater 
than that for males, the curve indicates a somewhat grad- 
ual increase to an excess of 100 per cent., or double the 
expected number for the temperature groups 80 to 85 
degrees, at which point it drops 33 per cent. The 
curve for males shows neither extreme so far from 
expectancy, nor is the drop at the end so marked. This 
sudden falling off of assaults for the most excessive heat 
is a very interesting fact; but since conclusions are drawn 
from it which are discussed in the next chapter, I merely 
call attention to it here. The greater sensitiveness of 
woman to weather conditions was noted by at least one of 
the teachers in discussing the answers to the questionaire. 
The physiological conditions which bring about an un- 
equal demand, in point of time, upon the vital energy 
of the sex, are undoubtedly its causes. Without ques- 
tion, during periods when this demand is greatest, the 
emotions are less stable and the weather effects much 
greater than for periods when those demands are less. 

Briefly stated, then, we have two opposite effects from 
heat: first, upon sickness and drunkenness, which vary 
inversely as the temperature ; and second upon crime and 
insanity, which vary directly with it. Between these two 
we have the classes of data which are studied for indoor 



A SUMMARY OF WEATHER EFFECTS 251 

conditions (death, deportment in the schools and pen- 
itentiary, errors in banks) and which would not feel the 
full force of temperatures as registered by the Weather 
Bureau, though they all show a marked influence from 
extreme heat ; and lastly, suicide, which shows peculiari- 
ties all its own, though none the less interesting. 

Barometer. There is a greater resemblance between 
the effects upon the different classes of data studied, of 
those meteorological conditions of which the barometer 
is the measure, than of those of any other weather state. 
With the exception of the curves for sickness, which 
vary only in one particular from the type ; for drunken- 
ness, which differs very materially; for suicide, which is 
also somewhat at variance ; and that for clerical errors ; 
the curves might be superposed, and, save for minor 
fluctuations, would practically coincide. Death was not, 
however, studied for this condition, owing to a difficulty 
in getting the record for the years 1886-7, or it is possible 
we might find a somewhat greater divergence. The fact 
disclosed is, that — save for the exceptions cited — there is 
an excess for all occurrences for relatively low readings, 
and a corresponding deficiency for high ones. As has 
been stated elsewhere (Chapter VII.), it does not seem 
probable that the definite state of the atmosphere re- 
vealed by the barometer is itself the direct cause of the 
variation, so much as other weather states which are their 
concomitants. Since, however, the other curves so nearly 
resemble that for deportment in the schools, which was 
somewhat fully discussed in the chapter just referred to, 
we need mention here only the divergencies. 

That for sickness shows the same general excess for 
low pressure of the atmosphere, together with a similar 



252 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

though unusual one for high readings. Drunkenness also 
exhibits a similar though more pronounced increase for 
great pressures, while the divergency of suicide from the 
type is through a deficiency for low barometrical condi- 
tions. The curve for errors in banks shows that there 
seems to be no general effect of the different barometric 
conditions upon their occurrence, although errors seem 
to be slightly less in number for conditions of low barom- 
eter than for high. As a basis for its consideration, we 
must conclude that the other curves indicate a less full 
control of the emotions for low barometers than for 
high. Reasoning from this hypothesis, my conclusion 
is that the errors studied are more frequent when mental 
— or at least emotional — states are under most perfect 
control. This, however, seems contrary to all opinions 
based upon introspection or general observation, and 
leads to an analysis of the conditions under which the 
errors were made in search for any other hypothesis to 
explain the facts. A possible one is found as a result of 
conference with the offending individuals themselves. 
It is that on some days they seem to feel a confidence in 
themselves which leads them to pass off work as perfect 
at the first attempt ; a computation is rapidly made, or a 
column of figures added, and another piece of work 
undertaken, without a second thought as to the correct- 
ness of either. This is the case on days when they feel at 
their best. On other days a greater possibility of errors 
seems to be recognized, based upon the way they feel, 
and greater care is taken with each process, or the work 
is even done over again in order to prevent errors which 
are thought to be probable in their existing mental state. 
If these facts be true, the result would be just what we 



A SUMMARY OF WEATHER EFFECTS 253 

find for our curve. An increased tendency inhibited with 
more than a compensating care would give a negative re- 
sult ; yet in this case our results are not those of weather 
effects upon mental states, except as those effects are 
especially compensated for, and we cannot consider the 
readings of this curve as normal for the influence of the 
barometer upon intellectual activities. It is quite prob- 
able that, at least for the teachers in the schools, there is 
a similar restraint based upon recognized tendencies, 
which would serve to negative the tabulated effects of 
the weather upon the conduct. In fact, if this study is 
to be of any practical value to them, it can be so only in 
pointing out the conditions under which such restraint 
must be exercised, as well as allowances made for others. 

To summarize still more briefly : Atmospheric condi- 
tions which are registered by a low barometer are pro- 
ductive of the various manifestations of active disorder 
tabulated under the heads, crime, deportment, and in- 
sanity. Sickness also seems to be increased by the same 
condition, while suicide is very excessive during atmos- 
pheric pressure somewhat below the normal. On the 
other hand, drunkenness is less prevalent under such 
conditions; and attention, as indicated by perfection of 
mental computations, is either more perfect, or greater 
precaution is taken to guard against error. 

Humidity. A prevailing type is readily discernible 
upon inspection of the various curves for humidity. It 
shows an excess of the occurrences studied, for dry at- 
mospheric conditions — sometimes, as is the case with the 
Denver studies, a very marked excess — and a correspond- 
ing deficiency for a high degree of saturation. Corre- 
sponding to this type we find the curves for deportment 



254 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

in the public schools and penitentiary, assault and bat- 
tery, and arrests for the insane, all these curves resem- 
bling each other to a marked extent. Opposed to them 
we find sickness, drunkenness and clerical errors show- 
ing the reverse effect, all being more prevalent when the 
humidity is great. The suicide curve resembles in a 
measure both types, since it rises above the normal at both 
extremes ; the death rate seems to be unaffected by vary- 
ing conditions of atmospheric moisture except in the case 
of an increase for the group of greatest saturation. 

It will be noticed that nearly all the curves which 
show a general decline with increasing humidity, make a 
somewhat sudden drop for the highest groups. Nor can 
this drop be accidental, too large a percentage of the data 
occurring in the 95-100 groups to make this probable. 
It must, seemingly, be due to weather effects. In the 
light of facts demonstrated in other chapters it would 
seem as if the condition of humidity brought about the 
results indicated, through its effect upon the reserve 
energy. An excess of energy is required to produce the 
abnormalities in conduct treated in the first class — that 
is, assault, misdemeanor in the penitentiary, and, per- 
haps, the active symptoms of insanity; while death, 
suicide and mental inexactness are results of the defi- 
cient state. Yet both the chilly, damp days of winter 
and the muggy, sticky days of summer have high humid- 
ities. This fact led me to question whether an emotion- 
ally quieting effect might not accompany the former, 
and one of a reverse influence, the latter ; yet the two so 
negative each other's effects when taken together as to 
fail to represent fairly the condition. Figure 52 was con- 
structed as the result of attempts to show the effect of 



A SUMMARY OF WEATHER EFFECTS 



255 



humidity with an accompaniment of high temperatures 
only. It was made for male assault and death as the 
two classes having the largest number of data, and con- 
sequently less liable to be affected by accident. In its 
preparation the effect of humidity upon their occurrence 





40 
45 


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50 


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60 


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Figure 52 

for days when the temperature was 70° or over was stud- 
ied ; in other words, an attempt was made to find whether 
humid, hot days, or dry, hot days were the more product- 
ive of these results. We see that even for those days 
whose temperature was within an arbitrary group of 70° 
to 95° the varying conditions of humidity had but a com- 
paratively unimportant effect, and that of a character 
which we should hardly expect. If the curves show any 
general tendency, it is one of decrease of occurrence for 
high humidities, for both curves show a somewhat marked 
deficiency for the highest group. 

However, I do not consider these curves of much 
value, for two reasons. First, the number of days upon 
which they are based is too small. There is an average 
of only 61 days each year having a mean temperature 
above 70, and this gave us but 122 for the Death curve 
and only two each for the humidity groups 95-100, 40-45, 
and 45-50, and but eight for those of 85-90 and 90-95. 



256 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

This number is altogether inadequate, as accidents might 
easily affect the results. Second, the excessively hot 
days of our extended temperature groups were seldom 
those of the highest humidity. When those two condi- 
tions do come together the results are known to be very 
disastrous; but for the period studied the combination 
occurred but seldom. This fact could not help affecting 
our results very materially. Our temperature curves 
have shown the great effect of high temperature, and 
this means that on the hottest days would be expected 
the greatest number of assaults and deaths. If, how- 
ever, those hottest days were, as seems to have been the 
case, almost universally days of low humidity, we might 
have the result shown in Figure 7, or even a more 
marked excess for lower humidities. This source of 
error might have been lessened by making use of a 
smaller temperature group; but this would have mate- 
rially cut down the number of data, and so made promi- 
nent the other horn of our dilemma. 

To return again to the general curves. The slight 
excess for lower humidities may, perhaps, be ascribed to 
the increased electrical potential for such conditions. 
Although this electrical state has been described (page 
127) as existing at every point of the earth's surface and 
for any climate, it has not been found to be very great 
except for lowest humidities that are common for New 
York (see Denver curve), at which point it makes a 
great jump. The fact has not been fully determined, 
although it is quite probable, that the potential bears a 
somewhat constant relation in inverse ratio to the humid- 
ity. If this be true, our excess of data shown for low 
humidities may be accounted for as was the very marked 



A SUMMARY OF WEATHER EFFECTS 257 

one for the Denver school children under still lower 
conditions. 

The resemblance between the curve for sickness as 
shown by the applicants for aid at the hospital, and that 
for drunkenness, coupled as we have found them for so 
many of the meteorological conditions in opposition to 
the others, argues strongly a uniformity of physiological 
origin and might almost convince us of the truth of the 
"drunkenness a disease" theory. 

The curve showing the prevalence of errors in banks 
is interesting, because it comprises the only class of data 
which are based upon intellectual processes pure and 
simple. The excess for the lowest humidities might in- 
dicate, if it be not due to accident, that the intellectual 
balance is more disturbed by the increased electrical 
potential, than is the emotional. The gradual rise in the 
curve from the 50-55 to the 95-100 group indicates that 
the devitalizing effect of increasing conditions of moist- 
ure have so exhausted the energy applicable to mental 
processes as to affect their regularity and perfection. 
Briefly stated: A dry atmosphere is a stimulant to all 
forms of active disorder and to suicide: is an enemy to 
intoxication and mental inexactness. 

Wind. No one of the meteorological conditions stud- 
ied, more plainly differentiates the various classes of data 
into contrasting groups than does the wind, and no con- 
ditions present more anomalous and unexpected effects. 
Particularly is this true for atmospheric movements of 
less than 100 miles for the twenty-four hours, which I 
have characterized as calms. In order to make plain the 
seeming effects of such conditions I have inserted the 

following table ; 
18 



258 



WEATHER INFLUENCES 



TABLE SHOWING PREVALENCE DURING CALMS OF 
PHENOMENA STUDIED 

(One hundred per cent, equals the normal or expected number) 



Assault and battery (male) 89 per cent 
" (female) 45 

Drunkenness (male) 78 

Insanity (male) 67 

Insanity (female) 34 

Suicide 62 

Schools : deportment 50 



Penitentiary : deportment. 80 per cent 

Death 104 

Policemen off duty 105 

Banks, errors in 105 

Sickness (hospital) 114 

Schools, absences , .314 



As will be seen, misconduct in the public schools was only 
one-half the normal prevalence upon calm days. The 
number of males arrested for assault and battery upon 
such days was 89% of the normal; of females for the 
same crime, 45% of the normal; of males for drunken- 
ness, 78% ; of males for insanity, 67% ; of females for 
insanity, 34%; of cases of suicide, 62%. The figures 
show that there was a deficiency in the occurrence of all 
these crimes, the magnitude of which may be computed 
in each case by subtracting the percentage of occurrence 
from 100%, which is expectancy. These classes of data 
constitute the first general group, so far as wind effects 
are concerned, comprising those activities which are de- 
ficient for calms. With the death rate, the next in the 
list, we have the begininng of the opposing group, mor- 
tality being above the normal ( 104% ) , as is the case with 
each of the other classes of data in this list, the percent- 
age of excess rapidly increasing until we find more than 
three times the normal number of absentees from school. 
The facts so far given do not show whether the change 
with an increase of wind was a gradual one or not. The 
most striking thing about the curves upon which it is 
based is the sudden change which takes place in the occur- 
rence of nearly all the activities (or cessation of activity 



A SUMMARY OF WEATHER EFFECTS 259 

in the case of death) with a slight increase in atmospheric 
movement. In the case of arrests for assault and bat- 
tery and for insanity (both males and females) , and of 
misdeeds in the penitentiary, all of which had shown 
deficiencies for calms — and some of them very large ones 
— excesses were shown for wind movements between 100 
and 150 miles per day, while misdemeanors in the schools 
were also above the normal before a movement of 200 
miles had been reached. On the other hand, policemen 
off duty, sickness, and death, both of which had been 
excessive in number during calms, took a sudden drop as 
the wind rose, and showed deficiencies for the next group 
(100-150 miles). Suicide, drunkenness and clerical er- 
rors alone showed gradual changes with the wind. The 
appearance of the curves as a whole is such as to lead me 
to place calms in a class by themselves as far as wind 
influences are concerned. High winds seem to have an 
influence peculiarly their own, gradually merging into 
that characteristic of moderate and slight movements, but 
when the aerial stagnation of 100 miles per day or less is 
reached a sudden change takes place, and certain phe- 
nomena suddenly increase in numbers while others drop 
almost to a vanishing point. Which are the ones in 
excess? Absence from school, absence from police duty, 
clerical errors, sickness and death. But absence from 
school means sickness, absence from duty the same, cler- 
ical errors the same in milder forms, and death the same 
at its maximum. 

It would seem to be true that : during calms, those life 
phenomena which are due to depleted vitality are excess- 
ive. But let us return to those phenomena which are 
deficient in occurrence during calms. They were mis- 



260 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

demeanors in public schools and penitentiary, cases of 
assault and battery, insanity, drunkenness, and suicide. 
To analyze each briefly: in the public schools, sins of 
commission, rather than sins of omission, are usually the 
occasion of bad marks in deportment. It is usually the 
active, energetic boy, the one with vitality to spare, who 
gets the demerits. The anaemic youngster may never 
stand at the head of his class, but he is very likely to 
delight his fond mamma with a mark of 100 in deport- 
ment. If that be so, and I speak with authority upon 
this point, if upon no other, disorder in the school room 
is an active thing, and an evidence of excessive vitality. 
With the penitentiary inmate I have had less experience, 
but upon a priori grounds would argue that what is true 
for the child in question of deportment would not be 
radically different for the adult. In fact, the wardens 
in charge, upon being questioned on the matter, gave it 
as their opinion that the prevalence of disorder bore a 
pretty close relation to physical health, varying directly 
with it; that order was only observed through evidence 
of superior force on their part; that a sick person was 
always a good one, but that with return to health, condi- 
tions were frequently very different. We may, then, 
conclude that in the penitentiary misdemeanors are evi- 
dences of excessive vitality. 

With persons arrested for the crime of assault and 
battery the same is, I believe, demonstrably true. One 
might feel like fighting, and perhaps more frequently 
does feel so, when possessed of "that tired feeling" which 
is the fortune of patent medicine venders, but to feel like 
fighting without doing so, never brought a man before 
the police judge for the crime which we are considering. 



A SUMMARY OF WEATHER EFFECTS 261 

There must be both the inclination and the consciousness 
of strength to back it up before one would be likely to 
figure in this class of data. 

In the case of the next class, that of arrests for insan- 
ity, we shall take the word of the psychiatrist that acute 
mania increases with any condition which tends to aug- 
ment the output of nervous energy. The daily fluctua- 
tions in strength which all have experienced are not so 
much those of physical, as of nervous energy, if the dis- 
tinction may be made, and with persons having tend- 
encies to mania the results would be those which our 
records showed. 

Drunkenness and suicide are not so plainly manifesta- 
tions of superabundance of vitality, but with these pos- 
sible exceptions we can say that during calms those life 
phenomena which are due to excessive vitality are defi- 
cient in number. If these theses have been sufficiently 
defended, and figures are not in existence with which to 
refute them, the next logical question would be, "Why?" 

Two hypotheses may, I believe, be presented in answer. 
The first is based upon the general facts bearing upon 
ventilation, and the second upon those of atmospheric 
electricity see page 132 ) . The first would only be appli- 
cable to the conditions of large cities — and I will again 
call attention to the fact that all data of the present prob- 
lem were for New York City — while the second would 
be valid for any spot on the earth's surface. In discuss- 
ing the first I would call attention to the fact that com- 
bustion of any sort, whether within the lungs of animal 
organisms or in the ordinary processes of burning, de- 
pletes the air of its oxygen and surcharges it with car- 
bonic acid gas. If the normal proportion of oxygen 



262 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

is to be maintained in the immediate vicinity of such 
combustion, fresh air must by some means be brought in 
to take the place of that, the normal mixture of which 
has been disturbed. We are quite familiar with these 
facts in their bearing upon the ventilation of buildings, 
but there is no difference except that of magnitude be- 
tween a building in which the air is being robbed of its 
oxygen through combustion, and a city in which the same 
process is going on. Three million animal organisms 
(not all human) and half as many more fires, all without 
adequate vegetable organisms to reverse the process, 
should, we would argue, make tremendous inroads upon 
the atmospheric stock of oxygen. 

Except for the Colorado altitudes, the direct influ- 
ence of high winds upon the activities which we have 
studied is hardly so great as might be expected. With 
the exception of suicide, most of them are influenced less 
than by differences in atmospheric pressure as revealed by 
the barometer, though the latter are hardly appreciable 
to the senses. The general effect of violent winds is to 
increase the prevalence of our data, though in the case of 
deportment in the public schools of New York City the 
reverse is true. The death rate shows a rise only for 
virtual hurricanes, no effect being noticeable until veloc- 
ities averaging twenty-five miles per hour for the entire 
day are reached. 

Character of the Day and Precipitation. The 
effects of days of different characters, according to the 
nomenclature of the Weather Bureau, seem contrary to 
general opinion upon the matter. With the sole excep- 
tion of errors in banks, death, and sickness there were 
more occurrences of every class studied for fair days 



A SUMMARY OF WEATHER EFFECTS 263 

than for cloudy days. In some cases, however, there 
were more for those days characterized as partly cloudy 
than for fair. The curves for Precipitation, with the 
exceptions noted, also show universal excesses for those 
days on which there was no rain or snow. Considering 
the greater excuse one has to be out of sorts on rainy or 
cloudy days, as when the pleasure of a picnic or an excur- 
sion into the country has to be foregone because of un- 
propitious weather, this fact is quite surprising. Even 
the suicide chooses the fair day for self-annihilation (ex- 
cept in the Denver climate) , and seems to have a very 
marked aversion to rainy weather. The relation between 
the curve for Character of the Day and that for Precipi- 
tation for the same class of data throws additional light 
upon the exact kind of day chosen. Attention has been 
called to the fact that not all cloudy days are rainy days ; 
and that not all those upon which there is precipitation 
are necessarily characterized as cloudy, or even as partly 
cloudy. Comparing the relative deficiencies of a given 
class of data for cloudy days and for those showing pre- 
cipitation, we can discuss the effects of those gloomy days 
which we all know so well, when the sky is overcast or per- 
haps the atmosphere full of fog, but on which no rain falls. 
As an example, we may compare the curves for suicide 
under the two conditions, and we see that for cloudy days 
there is shown a deficiency of 1 per cent., while rainy 
days indicate one of 14 per cent. This means that al- 
though the number for both conditions was less than ex- 
pectancy, there were relatively more suicides for cloudy 
than for rainy days. Now it would be safe to say that 
nearly all the rainy days were characterized as cloudy, 
but that the former made up only a portion of the latter. 



264 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

The remainder, which would be cloudy, but not rainy, 
would have to account for the difference of 13 per cent, 
shown by the two curves. This must mean that of the 
cloudy days, those which were without rain were accom- 
panied by the greater number of suicides. 

All the sets of curves may be considered in the same 
way ; and, as a matter of fact, nearly all would show the 
same effect for days overcast, yet without rain. I recog- 
nize a possible fallacy in this argument, from the fact 
that in each of the curves for character of the day three 
conditions are shown, while for precipitation there are 
but two ; yet for many of the classes of data the number 
for at least one of the three characterizations of the day 
is so near the expectancy that it can hardly have much 
effect upon the result. 

The question might be asked as to the effect of foggy 
days. No special study has been made of them, but an 
analysis of the curves under consideration might in part 
answer it. Days upon which there is fog might come 
under any one of the five conditions of the two curves ; if 
they were accompanied by no precipitation, they would 
be characterized as "fair," "partly cloudy," "or "cloudy," 
according to the duration of the fog. Most of the 
foggy days in New York, however, are accompanied by 
more or less precipitation, and I am inclined to think 
that those portions of the two curves under "cloudy," 
and ".01 inch" would include a great majority of them. 
It would seem that such were accompanied by deficien- 
cies in occurrence in all the data studied except errors in 
banks, and perhaps death, which slightly contradicts 
itself in this respect. 

Upon the same theory, which has been stated in other 



A SUMMARY OF WEATHER EFFECTS 265 

paragraphs, we should say that such days are devitaliz- 
ing. There are reasons for believing that they are so 
from a mere study of the chemistry of the atmosphere at 
such times. In the paper referred to upon page 152, a 
further analysis of the air is given for clear and for 
foggy days. The figures there show that under the 
latter condition the volume of carbon dioxide is from 
two to three times what it is under clear skies, the volume 
increasing in proportion to the duration of the fog. We 
found that when a similar excess of this poison existed 
in the atmosphere because of lack of wind to carry it 
away, all the curves bore the same relation to the expect- 
ancy, and each is corroborative of the other's evidence 
that devitalizing atmospheric conditions, whatever may 
be their effect upon the emotions, are inhibitive of action. 



CHAPTER XV 



CONCLUSION 



Analysis of the facts presented in the preceding 
chapter of this volume seems to warrant a number of 
conclusions which I state in all modesty, fully appreciat- 
ing the fact that there are many possible phases of the 
problem which have not been touched upon, and that a 
further exploitation of the field may prove any, or all of 
them, untenable. 

First: Varying meteorological conditions affect di- 
rectly, though in different ways, the metabolism of life. 
By "metabolism of life" I mean those processes of oxi- 
dation, either within the lungs on other tissues of the 
body, which are the chemical basis of life as we know it. 

This conclusion, it seems to me, has been fully proved 
for any variation in the prevailing sick list or the death 
rate ascribable to the weather, and I have shown that such 
are directly in support of it. Sickness and death are, 
without doubt, due to some pathological condition of the 
body, and any pathological condition is but a derange- 
ment of its metabolic processes. Even if this derange- 
ment may be due immediately to the action of some germ, 
any variation in the activity of the processes which are 
shown to be closely related to differing meteorological 
conditions must be attributed either to the effects of 

266 



CONCLUSION 267 

these conditions upon the germ, or upon the organism 
supporting it. Since germs have been proved to be such 
hardy little creatures, we are forced to suppose the effects 
to be upon the organism. For whatever meteorological 
conditions then, we find a well-marked excess or defi- 
ciency in the death rate, or even in the attendance at the 
public schools — if our supposition was correct that this 
was influenced by health — we may conclude that an 
effect upon the metabolic processes of life is indicated. 
Such an effect may be either favorable or unfavorable 
to health. Favorable conditions would be shown by a 
decrease in sickness and death; unfavorable conditions 
by the reverse. A study of the curves illustrative of 
sickness and death shows that generally low conditions of 
temperature, humidity and wind are favorable, as shown 
by a deficiency, while partly cloudy and dry days seem 
to be somewhat so, if we make allowance for the direct 
effect of such conditions upon the ability of the people 
to get about. On the contrary, high temperature and 
humidity, and moderately high winds, together with 
rainy, fair and cloudy days, are somewhat unfavorable. 
These conditions seem so different, basing our judgment 
upon general experiences, as to lead to a further analysis 
of the unfavorable conditions. Some of them seem to 
be of such a character as to accelerate the vital processes 
of oxidation, and others to retard them. For want of 
better terms, I shall call the former anabolic J the latter 
katabolic, conditions. High temperature, high winds 
(better ventilation) , fair days with low humidities as an 
accompaniment, are anabolic; while low temperatures, 
high barometric conditions, calms, rainy and cloudy days 
and high humidities, because of their opposite character- 



268 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

istics, are katdbolic. Now it may be seen that health, 
which means a metabolism of the definite rapidity de- 
manded by nature, as brought about by a long series of 
natural selections, may be affected disastrously either by 
an acceleration or by a retardation of those processes. A 
fire may go out either from lack of fuel (too rapid oxi- 
dation) or from lack of draft (too little oxygen) . The 
same fact is shown in a definite manner by our study for 
the metabolic processes of life. Those conditions which 
I have termed anabolic produce too rapid a metabolism 
to be borne by the weakened organism, while the kata- 
bolic so lessen the production of available energy as to 
reduce its quantity below the minimum required for life 
or health. A study of the various curves of the death 
rates and school attendance shows that, generally speak- 
ing, the so-called katabolic conditions are the vitally de- 
pleting ones. The marked exception is found in the 
showing for high temperature (mentioned later in this 
section) ; but the fact is plainly true for calms, high 
humidities, low barometric conditions, and to an extent 
for cloudy and rainy days. These conditions have all 
been classified as katabolic. For them the death rate is 
high and sickness prevalent. This is not strictly true for 
the death rate upon rainy days, when compared with 
expectancy, but taking the curves of conduct as our basis 
of comparison, rainy days showed a very marked excess. 
These relations, considered in the light of our already 
defined use of the term katabolic as applied to meteor- 
ological conditions, show that vitality is depleted and 
that the spark of life goes out because of the retardation 
of the metabolic processes, rather than because of an 
acceleration of them to an extent that depletes the cell 



CONCLUSION 269 

structure. If an animal were placed in an atmosphere 
of pure oxygen, death would ensue from the latter cause ; 
such a condition would be anabolic in the extreme. Al- 
though the variations in oxygen, the life-giving element 
of our atmospheric air, and of carbon dioxide, the death- 
dealing component, are not great, still they are of suffi- 
cient magnitude to be effective, and we must conclude 
that the vital fires are quenched for want of the support- 
ing medium, rather than that they burn out from lack of 
fuel. That they are affected to a marked extent by 
meteorological conditions cannot, in the light of what 
has been said, be doubted. 

My use of the terms anabolic and katabolic is open to 
criticism, and I should not attempt to uphold it, except 
that there seem to be no other available terms, and with 
the exact definition which I have given of their use in 
this study, a definite conception may be imparted with- 
out circumlocution. 

Second: The " reserve energy" capable of being uti- 
lized for intellectual processes and activities other than 
those of the vital organs is effected most by meteorolog- 
ical changes. The sum total of available energy of any 
living organism would consist of that which is being used 
by, and is necessary to, the vital processes of living, plus 
a remainder, which may be utilized for intellectual pro- 
cesses and the motor activities accidental to life. The 
latter I have designated as reserve energy. 

If my first conclusion be valid, that the metabolism of 
life is affected T)y the weather states, it must follow that 
the sum total of energy resulting from such processes is 
also affected. But the sum total of available energy 
consists of that which is absolutely essential to the more 



270 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

vital activities of life — respiration, circulation, digestion, 
assimilation and excretion — plus the reserve energy : the 
residuum for the higher activities of life, after those of 
mere existence are satisfied. It is this that we find most 
emphatically testifying to the effect of weather changes. 
When we find an effect of a given magnitude upon 
health or the death rate, we find one many times greater 
upon the emotions, as shown by the deportment. It is 
true that we have no common unit of measure for phys- 
ical and mental variations, yet a comparison of the curves 
as a whole proves beyond a doubt that, based upon any 
available criterion, this is true. From biological analogy 
we should expect it to be so. Phylogenetically, the en- 
ergy of vital process is the older: in fact, as old as the 
animal kingdom itself, and the earliest race acquisitions 
which we possess are not vulnerable to the common 
weapon of environment. The reserve energy is, how- 
ever, a later acquisition, common only with that indi- 
vidual adaptation to the environment which we call 
education. It is interesting in its relation to the life 
history of the individual, as it is to the race history of an 
individual. During the period of growth it seems to be 
universally excessive for persons in good health. It shows 
itself in the play and spontaneous activities of childhood, 
and the athletic sports and intellectual development of 
youth. During the period of maturity it has a strong 
balance in its favor, unless depleted by special demands 
made upon it ; while old age gradually lessens its quan- 
tity, till the sum total of bodily energy only equals that 
being used in life processes. Under such conditions, any 
extra demand necessitates a draft upon the latter, and if 
it be too heavy, the whole process stops. But beside the 



CONCLUSION 271 

life rhythm in the reserve energy, there are many others 
due to the accidental conditions of bodily health. We 
all recognize them, and they need not be discussed here. 
The rhythm which we hope to demonstrate is one of less 
marked fluctuation; one not of health and disease in the 
ordinarily accepted sense of the terms, but one of exhil- 
aration and depression, of activity and lassitude, of good 
spirits and poor. Not these conditions as the ascribable 
effects of actual bodily disease, but coming whence we 
know not, and why we cannot tell. This rhythm it 
is that the subtle agency of weather seems to affect. 
As a consequence of our method of reasoning, those 
definite meteorological conditions which were desig- 
nated in the discussion of the first thesis as anabolic 
would be those which in this varying weather rhythm 
would produce the greatest reserve energy, the reason 
being that for them the metabolic processes are increased. 
There seems to be one marked exception to this genera- 
tion of energy and the demands made upon it by the 
vital processes ; and that is, for excessively high tempera- 
tures. For such conditions the vital demand exceeds the 
production, and the reserve is depleted or exhausted. 
This is shown by the great increase in death and the 
sudden decrease in assault shown for the highest groups, 
but especially by the curves upon Figure 14. The latter 
show no increase in assault for the highest temperatures 
of July and August, while the actually cooler days of 
April and October, though the hottest for those months, 
show marked effects. It seems to me probable that the 
low vital reserve for excessively high temperatures may 
be due in part at least to the increased energy required 
by the accelerated secretion of the glands belonging to 



272 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

the excretory system. Large amounts of perspiration 
can be produced only at the expense of some form of 
energy, and since that is a process certainly abnormal at 
such times, it may be something of a drain upon vitality. 
This theory is, perhaps, corroborated by the etiology of 
sunstroke, which occurs only when perspiration has 
ceased, at which time the high bodily temperature and 
the activity of the metabolic process may mean more than 
mere failure to reduce the former by evaporation. Yet 
the magnitude of this effect of great heat upon health is 
exceptional. The curves as a whole give the preponder- 
ance of weather effects to those activities which are the 
result of reserve energy, rather than the more funda- 
mental energy of life. 

Third : The quality of the emotional state is plainly 
influenced by the weather states. This conclusion is sup- 
ported in part through the memory of our own experi- 
ences and by our observation of others. We are all con- 
scious of the exhilarating effects of some kinds of 
weather which cast a roseate hue over the whole horizon, 
and of others which paint it with sombre tints. Litera- 
ture has fully recognized this influence, and nothing that 
any empirical study might show could disabuse us of our 
belief. But so far as the present study is concerned, the 
evidence is all in its favor. One cannot have faith, even 
in the prevalence of a normal quantum of altruistic feel- 
ings at a time when murder, assault and the more trivial 
evidences of ill-will in school room and prison are nearly 
doubled, yet that is what we find for some of the weather 
moods. Nor can we believe, when all of these things are 
happening together, when everybody is "stirred up," 
that the weather has nothing to do with it. Admitting, 



CONCLUSION 273 

too, that the weather influences the vital energy, we have 
plenty of sound psychology, arguing that it should be 
so, for it is a well recognized fact that low vitality — 
either temporary or long-continued — means low spirits. 
When the baby is tired or hungry, and both mean the 
same thing so far as reserve energy is concerned, it is 
cross, and it is possible that many of us of an older growth 
would not wish to be analyzed too closely on this point. 
This conclusion is, however, so self-evident as to need no 
further argument. 

Fourth: Although meteorological conditions affect 
the emotional states, which without doubt have weight in 
the determination of conduct in its broadest sense, it 
would seem that their effects upon that portion of the 
reserve energy which is available for action are of the 
greatest import. In the discussion of this conclusion we 
must discover the relation existing between reserve 
energy and the emotions, for meteorological conditions 
showing marked excesses or deficiencies of data. A dis- 
orderly act of the nature of an assault or misdemeanor in 
the penitentiary, can occur only at such a time as there 
may be both energy and inclination or impulse to under- 
take it. The former must bear some relation to the 
reserve energy; the latter, to the emotional state, which 
would at the instant probably be negative in quality. 
We have traced the relation between the occurrences 
taken as data of deportment, and the reserve energy ; we 
have stated that — arrived at by introspection and gen- 
eral experience — the days upon which we most often find 
ourselves "out of sorts" (a negative emotional state) are 
the hot, humid, cloudy and perhaps rainy ones, some of 

us reserving the right to be hard to get along with when 

19 



274 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

the wind is high. Such are the days when, all other 
things being equal, we should be most liable to have 
trouble with teacher or fellow man, if the emotional state 
were the only factor. But we find that for some at least 
of these "ugly" days the numbers of misdemeanors al- 
luded to are much below expectancy. Such is the case 
— mirabile dictu! — for the humid, the very windy, the 
cloudy and the rainy days. We should be at a loss to 
account for such a showing did not the conclusions from 
our study of the reserve energy come to our aid ; for all 
the conditions noted, this was found to be very much 
depleted. This fact is undoubtedly the cause of the 
deficiencies shown. A most ardent desire to hurt some- 
body is not very dangerous, if there is nothing to back 
it up. A most uncomfortable atmosphere might re- 
sult, and a record of profanity might show some inter- 
esting things; but inclination alone will at least get no 
one into the police court. Reserve energy, on the other 
hand, seems a most dangerous thing to have about, so 
far as personal conflicts are concerned. With the con- 
sciousness of power to maintain one's position, even by 
strength of arms, the opportunity under the most favor- 
able emotional condition seems likely to arise. At any 
rate, our curves show the balance in favor of the influence 
of reserve energy, accompanying the best of spirits, over 
vital deficiency and most unhappy states of mind. If 
we could have made this study for Colonial days, and 
have taken our records from the ducking-stool, the re- 
sults might have been very different. 

Fifth: Those meteorological conditions which are 
productive of misconduct in a broad sense of the word, 
are also productive of health, and mental alertness: as a 



CONCLUSION 275 

corollary, misconduct is the result of an excess of reserve 
energy, not directed to some useful purpose. In the 
discussion of the first thesis we showed the relation exist- 
ing between the death rate and the various meteorolog- 
ical conditions studied. In considering the second and 
fourth we have shown that relation for the data of Con- 
duct. It has been shown; first, that the general effect 
of conditions which I have designated as katabolic has 
been to increase the death rate. 

Second, that the general effect of anabolic conditions 
has been to increase the data of Conduct. There are 
some exceptions to both these statements, notably that 
of high temperature upon the death rate, which has been 
touched upon and hypothetically accounted for ; still, as 
a whole, the statements are valid. Tracing the curve for 
errors in banks upon the various charts, we are convinced 
that they more nearly resemble those for death than for 
Conduct. On the temperature charts all the curves 
(except that for the school children) show the same gen- 
eral tendencies. On that for humidity the curve for 
errors in banks closely resembles those for sickness and 
death, all showing excesses for high humidity in marked 
contrast to those for Conduct. For wind, it resembles 
the death rate in showing no deficiency for calm, though 
for the rest of its course it is more similar to the Conduct 
curves. For cloudy days it and the death curve are the 
only ones giving expectancy or more, and for rainy days 
they are the only ones not showing a marked deficiency. 
Without discussing this curve further, we assert that its 
resemblance to that for death is much closer than to 
those for Conduct. This is, perhaps, only what should 
have been expected, since in both the intellectual work 



276 WEATHER INFLUENCES 

of the bank clerks and the vital processes of life actual 
demands upon the reserve energy are made. 

The barometric conditions, which have been omitted 
from the discussion because they were not available in 
our study of the death rate, show an interesting discrep- 
ancy for sickness and errors in bank curves. This can 
not be interpreted in terms of comparison with anything 
but the curves for Conduct; still they are perhaps sug- 
gestive of the position of that for Death, if it were 
computed. 

Without discussing the Suicide curve in detail, we can 
say that in many respects it is midway between those 
for death and conduct in many of its showings. For 
humidity in particular it closely resembles the former. 
An analysis of the mental and physical states which 
would suggest those of a negative quality, coupled with 
those of a depleted reserve energy. Each of these is the 
accompaniment preeminently of one of the classes of 
data which we have been considering; the former of 
excesses in Conduct, and the latter of death. But their 
relation to one another in the suicide is the one which we 
cannot hope to discover in this problem, though the rela- 
tion of the curves may perhaps throw some little light 
upon it. 

On the whole, it would seemingly be safe to say that 
of the activities (or cessation of activity) possible to 
human beings, some are the result of excessive vitality, 
and others of a deficiency ; and that, generally speaking, 
those misdemeanors which have been classed under our 
study as those of Conduct are the results of the former, 
while sickness and death are accompaniments of the 
latter. 



CONCLUSION 277 

If this be so, and misdemeanors in general are the 
result of unutilized energy, an interesting, though not by 
any means a new social and pedagogical problem is sug- 
gested. It is well known that crime is excessive during 
periods of labor depression when large numbers of men 
are unemployed. But the explanation has usually been 
an economic one : that poverty, in a sense warranted the 
extreme measures taken, usually directly or indirectly 
associated with theft. Or it may have been that the old 
adage "Satan finds some mischief still, for idle hands to 
do" has been accepted in excuse. But is this the final 
word? 

And with the school child ; have we not here an argu- 
ment for more work? — not mental work, but good, solid, 
healthful manual labor or athletics, for of the intellectual 
sort we have enough already. It is an old cry, but a far 
cry. Pestalozzi and Froebel both uttered it ; but it can- 
not be repeated too frequently, nor too loudly. The 
social problem of work as an agent of reform is not an 
easy one to solve, but with the schools, conditions are 
more fully under control, and if a football team will take 
the place of a strap, let us have football or any reason- 
able substitute, on the prescribed list. 



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INDEX 



Abbott, Dr. C. C. (quoted), 30. 

Anabolic effects discussed, 268. 

Aristotle (cited), 15. 

Assault, denned, 142; by months of 
the year, 143; occurrence of, 143; 
effects of temperature upon, 146; 
temperature effects by months, 
147; barometer, effects of, upon, 
149; effects of humidity upon, 151; 
wind effects upon, 152; character 
of day effects upon, 153; precipi- 
tation, effects of, upon, 154. 

*' Attendance," explained, 102; for 
months of the year, 102; effects of 
temperature upon, 104; effects of 
barometer upon, 106; effects of hu- 
midity upon, 107; effects of wind 
upon, 110; effects of character of 
day upon, 112; effects of precipi- 
tation upon, 112. 

Attention discussed, 233. 

Asylum superintendents (quoted), 
167. 

Bailey, William B. (quoted), 203. 

Barometric influence discussed, 76. 

Barometer, effects upon attendance, 
106 ; effects of, upon deportment in 
schools, 121; effects of, upon as- 
sault, 149; effects of, upon mur- 
der, 155; effects upon deportment 
in penitentiary, 164; effects upon 
insanity, 172; effects of, upon 
health, 190; effects of, upon sui- 
cide, 209; effects of, upon drunk- 
enness, 225; effects of, upon cler- 
ical errors, 236; effects of, upon 
discrimination, 242; effects of, 
upon all classes of data summar- 
ized, 251. 

Beethoven (cited), 47. 

Beowulf, 3. 

Body and mind, relation between, 60. 

Byron (quoted), 46. 

Calms, effects of, upon all classes of 
data summarized, 258. 

Carbon dioxide in city atmosphere, 
152. 



Cellini, Benvenuto (cited), 46. 

Character of the Day, discussed, 83 ; 
effects of, upon attendance, 112; 
effects of, on deportment in the 
schools, 137; effects of, upon as- 
sault, 153; effects of, upon murder, 
157; effects upon deportment in 
penitentiary, 164; effects of, upon 
insanity, 175; effects of, upon 
health, 195; effects of, upon death 
rate, 195; effects of, upon suicide, 
214; effects of, upon drunkenness, 
229; effects of, upon clerical er- 
rors, 238; effects of, upon discrim- 
ination, 243; effects of, upon all 
classes of data summarized, 262. 

Clerical Errors, discussed, 233; by 
days of the month, 234 ; by days of 
the week, 235; effects of tempera- 
ture upon, 235; effects of barom- 
eter upon, 236; effects of humidity 
upon, 237; effects of wind upon, 
238; effects of precipitation upon, 
239. 

Cohen, J. B. (quoted), 152. 

Conclusions, 266. 

Crime, effects of weather upon, 141 ; 
in India, discussed, 144, 194. 

Dante (quoted), 218. 

Data studied, classes of, 61-67. 

Days of the Week, effects of, upon 
deportment in schools, 114; effects 
of, upon clerical errors, 235. 

Death-rate, in India, discussed, 194; 
temperature effects of, 187; tem- 
perature of particular months, ef- 
fects of, 189; humidity effects of, 
192; wind effects of, 194; precipi- 
tation effects of, 195; character of 
day effects of, 195; summary of 
weather effects upon, 197. 

DEPORTMENT, School, by months 
of the year, 112; by days of the 
week, 114; effects of temperature 
upon, 116; barometer effects of, 
121; humidity effects of, 123; wind 
effects of, 133; character of day 
283 



284 



INDEX 



effects of, 137* precipitation ef- 
fects of, 139; in Penitentiary, 
data discussed, 158; by months of 
the year, 160; temperature effects 
of, 161; barometer effects of, 164; 
character of day effects of, 164; 
precipitation effects of, 164. 

Discrimination, discussion of prob- 
lem, 239 ; temperature effects upon, 
241; barometer effects upon, 242; 
humidity effects upon, 243; wind 
effects upon, 243; character of day 
effects upon, 243; when quickest, 
244; when slowest, 245. 

Drunkenness, general discussion of, 
219; description of data studied, 
220; by months of the year, 220; 
effects of temperature upon, 223; 
effects of barometer upon, 225 ; ef- 
fects of humidity upon, 226; ef- 
fects of wind upon, 228; effects of 
character of day upon, 229;; ef- 
fects of precipitation upon, 229. 

Dunwoody (quoted), 31. 

Electrical potential of the atmos- 
phere, effects of, 127, 130. 

Emotions, weather states effects 
upon, 272. 

Equinoxial storms, 19. 

"Expectancy" discussed, 68. 

FIGURES, explained, 72; 1, monthly 
meteorological means, p. 87; 2, 
judgments of teachers regarding 
weather effects, p. 96; 3, registra- 
tion in public schools by months, p. 
102; Attendance and Deportment 
in the Public Schools, 4, by months, 
p. 103; 5, effects of temperature 
upon, p. 105; 6, effects of barom- 
eter upon, p. 106; 7, effects of hu- 
midity upon, p. 108; 8, effects of 
wind upon, p. 110; 9, effects of 
character of the day and precipita- 
tion upon, p. Ill; 10, School De- 
portment, by days of the week, p. 
114; 11, effects of the temperature 
of the school-room upon, p. 117; 
Assault and Battery, 12, by months 
of the year, p. 143; 13, effects of 
temperature upon, p. 146; 14, ef- 
fects of temperatures of particular 
months, p. 147; 15, effects of ba- 
rometer upon, p. 150; 16, effects of 
humidity upon, p. 151 ; 17, effects of 
wind upon, p, 152; 18, effects of 



character of the day upon, p. 153; 
19, effects of precipitation upon, 
p. 154; Deportment in the Peni- 
tentiary and Clerical Errors, 20, 
effects of temperature upon, p. 161 ; 
21, effects of barometer upon, p. 
162; 22, effects of humidity upon, 
p. 162; 24, effects of character of 
the day and precipitation upon, p. 
164 ; Insanity, 25, by months of the 
year, p. 170; 26, effects of temper- 
ature upon, p. 172; 27, effects of 
barometer upon, p. 173; 28, effects 
of humidity upon, p. 174; 29, ef- 
fects of the wind upon, p. 175; 30, 
effects of character of the day and 
precipitation upon, p. 176; Hos- 
pital Patients, Policemen and 
Death-rate, 31, by months of the 
year, p. 181 ; 32, effects of temper- 
ature upon, p. 187; 33, effects of 
temperature of particular months 
upon death-rate, p. 188; 34, effects 
of barometer upon, p. 190; 35, ef- 
fects of humidity upon, p. 191 ; 36, 
effects of wind upon, p. 193; 37, 
effects of character of the day and 
precipitation upon, p. 195 ; Suicide, 

38, by months of the year, p. 202; 

39, effects of temperature upon, p. 
207; 40, effects of barometer upon, 
p. 210; 41, effects of humidity 
upon, p. 212; 42, effects of wind 
upon, p. 214; 43, effects of charac- 
ter of the day and precipitation 
upon, p. 215; Drunkenness, 44, by 
months of the year, p. 220; 45, ef- 
fects of temperature upon, p. 223; 
46, effects of barometer upon, p. 
225; 47, effects of humidity upon, 
p. 227; 48, effects of wind upon, p. 
228 ; 49, effects of character of the 
day and precipitation upon, p. 229 ; 
50, experiment in discrimination, p. 
240. 

Flaugergues, M. (cited), 15. 

Guerry (cited), 204. 

Guy, Dr. W. A. (quoted), 184. 

Harleian manuscript, proverbs from, 
22-26. 

Hazen, H. A. (quoted), 12. 

Health and the weather, 177; Dr. W. 
A. Guy quoted on, 184; classes of 
data studied under, 178; by months 
of the year, 182; temperature ef- 



INDEX 



285 



fects of, 186; barometer effects of, 
190; humidity effects of, 191; wind 
effects of, 192; character of day- 
effects of, 195; precipitation ef- 
fects of, 195; summary of weather 
effects upon, 197. 

Herschel, Sir John (quoted), 8, 11. 

Hill, Dr. S. A. (quoted), 194. 

Horsely, Dr. (cited), 15. 

Hospital patients studied, 179. 

Humidity, discussed, 78 ; effects upon 
attendance, 107; effects of, on de- 
portment in schools, 123; effects 
upon assault, 151 ; effects upon mur- 
der, 156; effects of, upon insanity, 
173; effects of, upon health, 191; 
effects upon death-rate, 192; ef- 
fects of, upon suicide, 211; effects 
of, upon drunkenness, 226; effects 
of, upon clerical errors, 237 ; effects 
upon discrimination, 243; effects 
of, upon all classes of data sum- 
marized, 253. 

Influence, weather, discussed, 91. 

Insanity, discussed, 166; by months 
of the year, 169; temperature ef- 
fects of, 171; barometer effects of, 
172; humidity effects of, 173; wind 
effects of, 174; character of day ef- 
fects of, 175; precipitation effects 
of, 175; summary of weather ef- 
fects upon, 176. 

Jenner, Dr. (quoted), 35. 

Johnson, Dr. (cited), 41. 

Jonson, Ben (quoted), 6. 

Katabolic effects discussed, 268. 

Lamb, Charles (quoted), 46. 

Literature, weather influences in, 39. 

Longfellow (quoted), 13. 

London fogs, influence of, 43; health 
tables for, 185; scarlet fever in, 
186. 

Males and females, different effects 
upon, 144, 149, 151, 152, 153, 172, 
173. 

"Means," monthly of meteorological 
conditions, 87. 

Merry weather, Dr. (quoted), 34. 

Metabolism, weather states effects 
upon, 266. 

"Meteorological conditions" dis- 
cussed, 74. 

Method of the problem considered, 
58. 



Misconduct the result of excessive 
energy, 274. 

Mitchell, Dr. Arthur (quoted), 80, 
185. 

Moon, table of influences, 12. 

Months of the year, effects of, upon 
death-rate, 189. 

Moore, Thomas (quoted), 47. 

Morselli (quoted), 202. 

Murders, by months of the year, 155; 
temperature effects of, 155; ba- 
rometer effects of upon, 155; hu- 
midity, effects upon, 156; wind ef- 
fects upon, 157; character of day 
effects of upon, 157; precipitation 
effects of upon, 157. 

"Occurrence," discussed, 70; de- 
portment in the schools, 112; of 
murder, 155; of deportment in pen- 
itentiary, 160; of insanity, 169; of 
health, 182; of suicide, 201; of 
drunkenness, 220; of clerical er- 
rors, 234; all classes of data sum- 
marized, 247. 

Parish, Sir Woodbine (quoted), 81. 

Precipitation, discussed, 86; effects 
upon attendance, 112; effects of, 
on school deportment, 139; effects 
of, upon assault, 154; effects upon 
murder, 157; effects upon deport- 
ment in penitentiary, 164; effects 
of, upon insanity, 175; effects of, 
upon health, 195; effects of, upon 
death-rate, 195; effects of, upon 
suicide, 214 ; effects of, upon drunk- 
enness, 229; effects of, upon cler- 
ical errors, 239 ; effects of, upon all 
classes of data summarized, 262. 

Prison wardens (quoted), 159. 

Proverbs, Weather, sources of, 1 ; of 
Anglo-Saxons, 2; pessimism in, 3; 
special day, 4, 19; rhyme in, 5; of 
wind, 7; Bedfordshire rhyme, 7; of 
"skyey influences," 10; of the ass, 
10, 32; of the moon, 11, 14; Dun- 
woody, examples from, 16; of 
mackerel sky, 16; of clouds, 16; of 
comets, 17; of meteors, 17; of 
mists, etc., 17; of wind, 17, 18; 
of St. Swithin's day, 20; of Can- 
dlemas Day, 21; of Christmas, 21; 
from the Harleian manuscript, 22- 
26; of animals, 27; of cats, 31; of 
sheep, 33; of birds, 33; of the rook, 
33; of the leech, 34; of plants, 35 f 



286 



INDEX 



Questionaire, 94. 

"Registration" explained, 101. 

Reserve energy, weather states ef- 
fects upon, 269-273. 

Rousseau (cited), 47. 

School-room, effect of temperature, 
117. 

Schuster, Arthur (quoted), 128. 

Shakespeare, weather appreciations 
of, 48; quotation from Henry VI, 
48; Hamlet, 48, 51; II Henry IV, 
49 ; I Henry IV, 49 ; Winter's Tale, 
49, 53 ; Romeo and Juliet, 49 ; Cor- 
iolanus, 50; As You Like It, 50; 
Macbeth, 50; Julius Caesar, 50; 
Troilus and Cressida, 52; III 
Henry VI, 52; Richard II, 52, 53; 
Henry IV, 53; Richard III, 53; 
Midsummer Night's Dream, 53; 
King Lear, 53. 

Shelley (cited), 46. 

Southey (quoted), 47. 

Spectator, The (quoted), 28. 

Spens, Sir Patrick, quotation from, 
13. 

Strahan, Dr. (quoted), 205. 

Suicide, quotation concerning, 84 ; dis- 
cussed, 198; data studied, 200; de- 
scription of plates, 201 ; by months 
of the year, 201 ; Mr. Bailey's study 
of, 203; by hours of the day, 205; 
Dr. Strahan (quoted), 205; tem- 
perature effects of, 207; barometer 
effects of, 209 ; humidity effects of, 
211; wind effects of, 213; character 
of day effects of, 214; effects of 
precipitation upon, 214; hypothesis 
in explanation of variations in, 217. 

Summary of weather effects upon 
the child, 140; of weather effects 
upon insanity, 176; of weather ef- 
fects upon health, 197; of weather 
effects upon death rate, 197; of 
weather effects on suicide, 218; of 
weather effects upon drunkenness, 
231; of weather effects upon cler- 
ical errors, 245; of weather effects 
upon discrimination, 246; distribu- 
tion by months of all classes of 
data, 247; temperature effects of 
upon all classes of data, 249; ba- 
rometer effects of upon all classes 
of data, 251; humidity effects of 
upon all classes of data, 253; wind 
effects of upon all classes of data, 



257; calms, effects of, upon all 
classes of data, 258; character of 
day, effects of, upon all classes of 
data, 262; precipitation, effects of 
upon all classes of data, 262. 

Sun, influence of, 46. 

Sunshine recorder described, 85. 

Tam o' Shanter (quoted), 42. 

Teacher (quoted), 44, 99 

Teachers' judgment of weather in- 
fluence, 95. 

Temperament, weather influence in, 
42. 

Temperature, discussed, 74; effects 
of, upon attendance, 104; effects of, 
upon deportment in schools, 116; 
of school-room, effects of, 117; ef- 
fect of, upon assault, 146; of 
months of the year as affecting as- 
saults, 147; effects upon murder, 
155; effect of, upon deportment in 
penitentiary, 161; effects of, upon 
insanity, 171; effects of, upon 
health, 186 ; effects of upon death- 
rate, 189; effects of, upon suicide, 
207; effects of, upon drunkenness, 
223; effects of, upon clerical er- 
rors, 235; effects of, upon discrim- 
ination, 241; effects of, upon all 
classes of data summarized, 249. 

Tennyson (quoted), 218. 

Theophrastus (quoted), 10. 

Traits, racial, 55. 

Turner, Sharon (quoted), 7. 

Vergil (quoted), 13, 36-38. 

Vital energy, weather states effects 
upon, 260. 

"Weather cult," 54. 

Whitman, Walt (quoted), 47. 

Wind, in weather proverbs, 7; dis- 
cussed, 79; effects of, upon attend- 
ance, 110; effects of, upon deport- 
ment in schools, 133; effects of, 
upon assaults, 152; effects of, upon 
murder, 157; effects of, upon in- 
sanity, 174; effects of, upon death- 
rate, 194; effects of, upon health, 
192; effects of, upon suicide, 213; 
effects of, upon drunkenness, 228; 
effects of, upon clerical errors, 
238; effects of, upon discrimina- 
tion, 243; effects of, upon all 
classes of data summarized, 257. 

Wordsworth (cited), 45. 



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